00:00:00.000Ahoy everyone, Wyatt Claypool here, back for some more polling time on the whiteboard.
00:00:05.860Today we have some very interesting numbers to go over from the policy advocacy organization
00:00:11.380Build Canada that seeks to answer the question, how much pain are Canadians actually willing
00:00:17.520to put up with in the current trade conflict with the United States?
00:00:21.800Because one of the really frustrating aspects of the legacy media's coverage on this issue
00:00:26.900is how when it comes to the opinions of Canadians, they stay purely surface level.
00:00:32.540These news organizations pay pollsters to collect data so they can write stories on them.
00:00:37.220And not one of the legacy media outlets has actually covered,
00:00:42.020hey, when pain sets in, are Canadians' opinions on this issue going to shift?
00:00:46.700They just stay on the surface that Canadians approve of Mark Carney,
00:00:50.880they hate Donald Trump, and they're willing to rally around the flag.
00:00:54.460Well, it's easy to rally around the flag when you're not losing your job,
00:00:58.900or when prices aren't skyrocketing, or when taxes aren't going up.
00:01:02.640It's very easy to be Laura Babcock, who's never going to lose her job throughout this entire situation.
00:01:08.500In fact, she's a consultant probably paid to propagandize on behalf of the Canadian government.
00:01:13.460But when you're a middle-class Canadian whose job could be on the line if the tariffs last too long,
00:01:19.320eventually you're going to flip on the bug lights and tell Carney please sign something you're not
00:01:26.140going to put up with this forever and that's what Build Canada set out to prove so in just a second
00:01:31.720here we're going to go over these four different categories of pain when it comes to the trade
00:01:37.540conflict and see how Canadian public opinion shifts but before we do that I just want to
00:01:42.940quickly remind you guys that if you like the show make sure to leave a like on the video
00:01:46.360subscribe if you're not yet a subscriber consider hitting the join button if you want to become a
00:01:51.720paying member of the channel to help make it more sustainable for me and of course always remember
00:01:56.720to leave a comment with what you think about this whole thing and then I might also end up talking
00:02:01.280a little bit about the new Angus Reid poll that came out it said plus 14 liberal and I actually
00:02:06.720do like Angus Reid and I do think the liberals recently popped up quite a bit heck they're
00:02:11.780fighting with Trump it always ends up helping their numbers but I do want to point out one
00:02:15.380thing about the Angus Reid poll that probably shows that they maybe over-polled the Liberals
00:02:19.920and under-polled the Conservatives by a few points. Liberals are probably leading by 9 or 10 points.
00:02:25.70014 might have to do with them messing up the rural numbers a little bit. But now let's get
00:02:31.260into the Build Canada poll. Again, credit to Build Canada, this is very interesting. I'm going to just
00:02:38.140quickly explain my abbreviations here, and then we will be getting into the numbers. So basically,
00:02:44.260PP here represents preferred posture. This is Canadians preferred posture when it comes to the
00:02:51.040trade conflict. HT is higher taxes saying if the trade conflict results in Canada needing to raise
00:02:57.140taxes in order to collect more revenues to subsidize effective industries, how would you
00:03:02.080react to that? RL is retirement losses that, you know, your benefits or your retirement fund could
00:03:09.200be put at risk because of the trade conflict, whether it's because you're personally paying
00:03:13.200out of pocket more money and it's affecting your retirement, or maybe even the government itself
00:03:18.200can't actually increase people's retirement benefits because of money being needed to be
00:03:23.720spent elsewhere. And then JL is job loss risk. So all these are basically how much risk are you
00:03:31.180willing to incur in order to fight back against Donald Trump in this elbows-up manner. But let's
00:03:38.060start off with preferred posture, Canadians preferred posture. And I'm going to be writing0.82
00:03:43.520in blue color, basically Canadians, what you know, what they approve of, would they still be on side
00:03:49.720with the current trajectory of or the current posture of the Canadian government. So right now,
00:03:55.720the elbows up posture, hold firm, you know, stand against Trump, put in place counter tariffs,
00:04:02.500that polls as a preferred one. And the first option just basically melds them into are you
00:04:07.340in favor or not. And then we'll get into somewhat in favor, strongly in favor, somewhat unfavorable,
00:04:12.680strongly unfavorable later on. But this one, they kept it a little bit more simple for their top
00:04:16.980line number. So right now, 75% of Canadians say that they think that the government should stand
00:04:26.620firm. This is their preferred position. And you can see why a lot of people would say that. Heck,
00:04:32.020it sounds a little bit weak to say that we shouldn't stand firm as the ideal position.
00:04:37.340And in this poll, only 20% of people said that we should be trying to make a deal or even make concessions for a deal.
00:04:46.780So yeah, that is a very big difference there with only 5% of people being undecided, not knowing what their preferred position on trade would be.
00:04:57.160Now, naturally, a lot of these people are probably already the 20%, probably a lot of you who've been watching, who caught on to the fact that holding firm in this elbows-up stance is not good for the country.
00:05:09.900It's not about us wanting the Trump Republicans to win or something like that. It's just obviously not working, and we should be trying to burn certain concession cards in order to get lower tariffs on the things that actually matter to us.
00:05:23.840But this is not probably surprising to any of you. 75, 20, it's kind of what we've come to expect from Canadians right now after observing people reacting to this trade war. But now let's move on to higher taxes. And I will swap out that red. I was not in love with the color of that red. It's very, very washed out.
00:05:43.420But if we, if higher taxes come into play, how are people going to react?
00:05:50.000Well, if higher taxes come in, I might need a darker blue for this one as well.
00:05:55.400Or I'm going to be able to go lighter.
00:05:58.780So in terms of if higher taxes come in, how many people want us to completely hold firm?
00:06:05.700I'll just kind of do it in two different bars.
00:06:08.360So it's like, yeah, it's like 35 or something like that.
00:06:12.020So, right now, in this, how many people would want us to hold firm if higher taxes were placed on Canadians in order to pay for us to hold out?
00:06:25.560Only 15% would want us to just keep completely holding firm if higher taxes are needed to be paid in order to hold out.
00:06:34.680how many people would be still somewhat in favor of holding out longer, but probably obviously
00:06:40.840being a little bit shakier in that position? 22%. A little bit higher than the people who'd
00:06:47.940want to strongly hold firm. And now, the people who don't want to hold firm anymore, if that
00:06:53.220happens, people who would, you know, somewhat find that unacceptable to incur higher taxes,
00:06:59.460That is 16% somewhat. And as you probably can already detect, those who would immediately want to make concessions and make a deal is a fairly large number here. 43% of Canadians at that point would want Canada to be making concessions in order to get to a deal if they were having to pay higher taxes to afford this current trade conflict with the US.
00:07:27.380And you can say, well, we didn't start it, so it's not us. It's not the Canadian people being taxed more by the Canadian government. Trump's doing this to them. Yeah, tell Canadians that when you're having to pay higher taxes. They just want the problem to go away.
00:07:42.000here's the preferred position a lot of canadians have not yet had to face the the kind of the
00:07:47.960consequences of the trade conflict and many of the people who are staunch liberal supporters
00:07:52.440are frankly uh older canadians who don't currently have jobs they could lose and are living on their
00:08:00.000retirement savings as well as their pensions now if you're in that category and you're watching
00:08:04.860my show no doubt you're a conservative but you know generally speaking that tends to be a fairly
00:08:10.100common belief in people who are over the age of 60, and especially those who are retired.
00:08:15.360You know, maybe it's a little overstating the polls than it really should be, but that's kind
00:08:20.620of the problem. But as soon as you say, hey, your taxes might go up, everything starts reversing
00:08:25.700very quickly. But now let's talk about retirement loss. What would happen if people's retirements
00:08:31.520were somewhat put at risk, at least, in order to fight this trade conflict? Those who would want
00:08:37.820to hold firm strongly drop massively down to 12%. Only 12% would want to continue holding on strong.
00:08:49.060Somewhat would want to hold on is now 21%. So the amount of people who would want to hold out just
00:08:55.100drops massively overall. It's not even that somewhat jumps to 30 or whatever. So just some
00:09:01.300people become shakier, but they're still on the side. Like no, the whole, there's a massive exodus
00:09:05.680that takes place somewhat in favor of making a deal and making concessions it is on this one 18
00:09:14.720and those who would want to make concessions to make a deal at that point just go for it
00:09:22.240is now up to 43 or 44 of people so you're seeing the trend here as people actually have to feel
00:09:32.640this. It's getting worse and worse for Mark Carney. And I'm sorry, but this is unavoidable
00:09:37.980if you're Mark Carney. You can't avoid the pain. What, are we going to have a painless trade war?
00:09:43.580He keeps calling it a war. We're going to have a painless war? It demonstrates that as the Build
00:09:49.420Canada organization said, there is no blank check on the trade war. There is absolutely stages of
00:09:56.240pain where people completely pull their support from Carney's current elbows up strategy. Now
00:10:02.180let's go to job loss. And as you probably have already inferred, things are getting worse and
00:10:07.720worse and worse. How many people would want to hold out strongly if their jobs were potentially
00:10:12.940at risk? Or basically, you know, jobs in general are at risk. Like if you're retired, it's probably
00:10:18.900you would think of your son or your daughter losing their job. Six. Six percent of people.
00:10:25.540six uh let's go to stand firm somewhat stand firm oh this one's 15 whoa 15 percent of people
00:10:37.360would still want to stand firm as everyone's losing their jobs like guys this is the 21
00:10:42.880percent of psychopaths who don't know what's going on somewhat somewhat unacceptable all
00:10:50.480this stuff so far is 22% would find this all somewhat unacceptable, you know, would probably
00:10:58.480lean towards wanting to make a deal if it's good enough. And then those who just say just make
00:11:04.200concessions and get it over with is 46%. Now, no doubt there are probably some people in all of
00:11:12.400these that are genuinely undecided, although undecided people tend to split towards what the
00:11:18.080general opinion already is. Like, my goodness, that is a trend line. We start off preferred
00:11:26.280position. It doesn't hurt you. We get to just live in fantasy Canada, and we get to be elbows
00:11:32.840up forever, and we get to be prosperous while we're also fighting the war. 75 to 20. You go up
00:11:40.980to, hey, higher taxes collapses. Retirement losses collapses even further. And job losses
00:11:47.260craters. 6% would want to hold strong. Now, this is an amalgamated one where they put together
00:11:53.600all the somewhats and stronglies together, and then the somewhats and stronglies for disagree.
00:11:59.260Still, let's assume that half of those people were strong. We went from 35 to 6. And then with
00:12:06.640the other 15 added? 21% to 75%. That's a little bit of a swing. So when everyone says, no, this
00:12:14.980is what Canadians want, we're just doing what Canadians want. Canadians want counter tariffs.
00:12:20.020No, the media tells them that counter tariffs will somehow be useful. And then when you poll
00:12:24.260Canadians, they're like, well, I guess counter tariffs would somewhat be useful, so we should
00:12:27.160do it. But as soon as the pain sets in, no, no, they're not in favor of this. People like painless
00:12:32.640wars. They don't like painful wars. And the booze is a great example of this particular issue.
00:12:39.600We put in place a booze ban in most of the provinces on American products.0.99
00:12:45.500That's a stupid idea, considering we export three times at least more alcohol into the United States0.98
00:12:52.700than the U.S. imports alcohol into Canada. So why was that? And everyone was making excuses on my1.00
00:13:00.240twitter timeline yesterday saying well it was the only thing the provinces could do so you have to
00:13:04.040understand that they just used whatever tool was at their fingertips that's not an excuse that's0.98
00:13:12.740just stupidity oh well you know we did it because it was the only tool yeah guess what when you're0.97
00:13:17.720dueling somebody let's say you can choose to duel somebody and it's and it's sabers or swords or1.00
00:13:24.180its pistols and they're a they're an incredibly gifted sword fighter and you're not you don't
00:13:32.840choose in the duel to duel with swords pick the pistols in that instance but the provinces all
00:13:39.960said well yeah they're three times better than us when it comes to being able to exert leverage on
00:13:45.340alcohol let's let's put in place an alcohol ban and i know that this doesn't really matter but
00:13:51.380it actually kind of does matter. When you're trying to get under Trump's skin and put pressure
00:13:55.600on him to make a deal, why are you targeting a product where he probably has very little
00:14:00.860association with the industry? Trump is a lifelong teetotaler. The man's never drank alcohol in his
00:14:06.980life. Not that you ban it because he personally likes that product and, oh, he can't get in anymore.
00:14:12.200Obviously, the president can get whatever they want. But the thing is, it's a stupid thing to1.00
00:14:16.540ban because thematically it doesn't bother trump if you did something about building materials well0.97
00:14:22.320yes the famous new york developer that might hit close to home and he might have people like you
00:14:28.520know other friends from the developing and casino businesses and whatnot start calling him up and
00:14:33.080saying you got to solve this thing if you were trying to target things to get under trump's skin
00:14:37.240target stuff that would cause friends of his from his former careers and then have them go after it
00:14:44.360go after him saying, you got to do it. We can't have a 100% ban on Canadian steel. We need it for
00:14:51.200our buildings. Maybe that would work out. It doesn't really matter. But the whole point
00:14:55.980is that this has just been very, very badly fought. But let's just quickly do the comparison
00:15:02.780in terms of plus minus in terms of favorability and unfavorability. So when it comes to the
00:15:08.360preferred posture. That had an overall approval of plus 55 points. That is a plus 55 percent
00:15:20.760prospect. Now, job losses are actually extremely likely in a trade war because if you can't really
00:15:27.480sell product in the U.S. anymore because it's not profitable, why would a company keep employing
00:15:32.760people to produce more of that product that they can't sell? That's very likely. The taxes might
00:15:38.240be the least likely, actually, because I think the liberals are going to kind of bend over
00:15:42.800backwards to make sure not to hurt them. Retirement loss is not that people's pensions
00:15:47.240are going to go away, but people are going to be having to spend more of their own retirement funds
00:15:51.100for the increased costs of the trade war. So that one's also partly likely. But let's just go on the
00:15:56.000more extreme one just for hackers. 46 and 22. So that means that is a 68% combined disapproval,
00:16:06.800make like you know make some concessions get a deal result somewhat and very strongly and then
00:16:12.760the you know the hold out let's hold out for the riders of rohan to come and save us that is 21
00:16:19.860so 21 and 68 what is that 47 that is a negative 47 prospect negative 47 for job losses occurring
00:16:34.500They would, and again, they're not just saying, oh, would you approve of that happening?
00:17:17.520I don't think the liberals are leading by 14 points right now, and I'm not just saying that.
00:17:21.340I can point to something in the poll and show you why I don't quite trust it.
00:17:25.560I'll even bring it up on screen right now just because I don't want to completely bait and switch people by saying I might talk about it, but then not.
00:17:33.620So this is the overall results for the new Angus Reid poll.
00:17:36.84032% for the Conservatives, 46% for the Liberals, 12% for the New Democrats, 5% for the Bloc Kebikawa, which is also fielding an under poll of the Bloc.
00:17:45.280That's a 14% lead, as you can see, for the Liberals.
00:18:33.420It is just simply a very conservative place.
00:18:35.620Saskatchewan farmers, it's not like if the liberals try really hard, they can win Saskatchewan farmers.
00:18:40.220They can't because they want opposite things.
00:18:42.900If the Liberal Party starts offering them every single thing they want, maybe, you know, smaller government, lower taxes, less regulation, you know, gun laws that allow, you know, softer gun laws so they can actually own what they want.