00:00:00.000Right now, Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals are in electoral danger, but I don't
00:00:05.660think they realize it yet. After screwing up multiple issues in a row, especially ones involving
00:00:11.820President Donald Trump, I think they've unleashed forces below the surface that could end up sinking
00:00:17.520them in the next few months. Now, I don't mean the government's going to fall, but I could see
00:00:22.360their polling slump even further than it already has in surveys like Angus Reid and Abacus Data.
00:00:28.660today on the show we will be talking about an abacus data poll that on its surface doesn't
00:00:34.160look all that interesting nothing to really write home about but once we go below the national party
00:00:40.160polling you'll know why we're talking about this on this sunday afternoon get in but before we get
00:00:47.540into the numbers here i just want to do the usual reminders if you like the show make sure to leave
00:00:51.940a like on the video subscribe if you're not yet a subscriber consider hitting the join button if
00:00:57.160you want to become a monthly contributing member of the channel it really helps make the channel
00:01:01.440more sustainable for me and if you want to support me and live in the riding of Calgary Curry I am
00:01:07.300running for the UCP nomination for that provincial riding and so if you live in that area pinned at
00:01:13.720the top of the comments is my website if you want to sign up onto the list there wyattclaypool.com
00:01:18.720if you do I'll make sure to give you a call in the coming days to tell you what's going down
00:01:23.000and see what you have, you know, see if you have any insights onto your corner of that particular
00:01:28.180riding. But now let's get into the new Abacus data poll. So the national numbers, like I've
00:01:35.580already foreshadowed, are not really all that interesting. They're interesting in their
00:01:39.640consistency because whenever a poll comes out showing the Liberals support dropping over time
00:01:44.800and the margins between the Liberals and Conservatives tightening, you get a lot of
00:01:48.680people on social media saying it's an outlier no the real number is whatever nanos is putting out
00:01:53.940like plus 15 liberal which is completely ridiculous but what abacus data is showing over time is that
00:02:01.120the liberals lower margin over the conservatives is holding they're only pulling plus six above
00:02:08.000the federal conservatives which is a far cry from how much they were ahead even in abacus data zone
00:02:13.340poll from three or four months ago where the liberals were leading the conservatives by
00:02:17.720anywhere from nine to 12 points that margin has now fallen down to six and one week after the
00:02:24.340original slump after the gordy howe bridge situation they're still six points ahead only
00:02:30.060they've gained one point since the last abacus data poll but doesn't really matter too much
00:02:34.820since the conservatives gained a point new democrats have just sat at nine percent like
00:02:39.200they were at last time bloc lost a point greens are holding at three and the people's party are
00:02:44.120holding at one. But like I said, this is not really the interesting thing I want to show you
00:02:48.880guys. I want to show you the numbers under the surface, which are the top issue numbers.
00:02:57.140This really shows that there is a building weakness for the liberals when it comes to
00:03:01.900the issue of Trump and his administration. This is how abacus typically does it. When people are
00:03:08.660surveyed, they pick up to three top issues. You know, they ask you to pick three. And then the
00:03:15.260numbers you see there in terms of the percentage points are how many people put those issues into
00:03:20.620their top three. So naturally, things like cost of living are at 65%. The vast majority of people
00:03:26.320consider that a top issue. The economy is at 36%. Healthcare is at 33%. And predictably, you have
00:03:33.060things like the threat posed by china and russia at only four percent and indigenous reconciliation
00:03:38.580at four percent because those are niche issue types indigenous reconciliation because it's
00:03:43.860pretty much only far left anti-colonial people who care about that one and with china and russia
00:03:49.220typically canadians don't care that much about foreign policy so it makes sense that that only
00:03:53.940slots into four percent of voters top three issues there's probably other issues that don't even make
00:03:59.220the cut here because they're only getting about one or two percent of people's votes but the one
00:04:04.020that's really interesting here is donald trump and his administration sorry we're not on the white
00:04:09.620board so i can't highlight it as finally here but right now it is sitting as the second biggest
00:04:16.420issue in the country with 37 of people who put it in their top three issues and that is actually up
00:04:24.500by six points since their last poll alone in that app that that swing absolutely does make sense
00:04:32.180because the other issue that you'll see has gone up substantially is climate change in the
00:04:37.860environment now it's not because people probably are actually going to vote heavily because of the
00:04:43.300climate because of the climate environment next election but we're in forest fire season around
00:04:48.660forest fire season you always see a big jump in the amount of people who claim that their
00:04:54.100political you know that their vote is driven by climate and the environment but it's right after
00:04:59.700the gordy how bridge situation and the new tariff threats that we're also seeing don trump and his
00:05:04.820admin jumping by six points so i think we can assume that that's real and that's not just
00:05:10.580some you know margin of error thing where if you pulled this three or four more times it could be
00:05:15.540up more or down further i think that's about accurate right now now why this matters is that
00:05:22.100But previously, when the Liberals started taking out their plus 9, plus 12% leads, both in abacus data polls as well as other accurate pollsters, whenever Trump and his administration started becoming like a pretty major issue, like a top three issue for Canadians, that's when they were opening up these massive leads.
00:05:42.720That's when Angus Reid was showing plus 13 and abacus data was showing plus 12 and other pollsters I somewhat respect were showing similar double digit numbers.
00:05:52.100that's because whenever Trump was in the news, it was considered a good thing for Mark Carney.
00:05:56.500If anything, he liked getting into fights with Donald Trump because then Canadians would rally
00:06:01.000around him as their gladiator in the arena against the Americans. Now, this is almost the highest that
00:06:08.600the Trump issue has been since the last election. It's 37 percent right now. Back when they were
00:06:14.060polling at 12 or 13 percent higher than the conservatives and abacuses poll, I think Trump
00:06:19.400was at like 38 or 39 but it's pretty much it's pretty close to what it is here around election
00:06:25.640time it was actually pulling at around 40 so that was a massive 2025 election issue but the and when
00:06:33.020and you'll remember or you might not remember but when the conservatives started actually leading
00:06:38.340in abacus data surveys last year it was towards the end of 2025 that we were seeing the occasional
00:06:44.180poll that said plus two conservative, plus one conservative, or even a tie, that's when the
00:06:50.180Trump issue had fallen from that extremely high height during the election of 40% of people put
00:06:55.700it in their top three. And it was down to just 24% of people considered Donald Trump and his
00:07:01.560administration as one of the top three issues. And then when January, February rolled around,
00:07:07.920Carney had his big Davos moment. He got to a little tiff with Trump. He went to China, which
00:07:13.180on the surface kind of made him look good for a bit because it was him thumbing his nose at the
00:07:17.180Trump administration I can go make a deal with whoever I want that was kind of the rhetoric at
00:07:21.820the time and that is when Carney started rocketing into the stratosphere in terms of the national
00:07:28.360polling lead plus 12 in abacus data survey with 39 percent of people saying that Trump and his
00:07:34.900administration was one of their top three issues and typically when it's that high who for a lot
00:07:40.380of that 39 37 percent of people that is probably their top issue by far so we had Trump and his
00:07:48.680administration go from 24 percent of people picking it and the conservatives were leading
00:07:52.960by a little bit to February 39 percent of people were picking it at their top issue and suddenly
00:07:58.400the liberals are polling above by 12 points but now in August we have the liberals polling ahead
00:08:06.680by just six points, and Trump and his administration are at 37% in terms of people putting it in
00:08:13.680their top three, which demonstrates that this issue is kind of a dying issue for the liberals.
00:08:18.480It doesn't really have the galvanizing effect with Canadian voters that it once did for Mark
00:08:24.120Carney, because after him dropping the streaming tax, after a bunch of other concessions to
00:08:30.260the Trump administration, including most especially on the Gordie Howe Bridge, where maybe it's
00:08:35.780not even that money to split the toll revenues with them but symbolically it's really pathetic
00:08:40.760that we gave that over with like no rhetorical fight coming from Prime Minister Carney that
00:08:46.740is what is stalling out the momentum of that issue for the liberals in fact that may even start to be
00:08:52.240a driving issue for the NDP now because they're willing to be as rhetorically elbows up as
00:08:58.780humanly possible where Carney I don't even really know what he's doing it's not like he's being less
00:09:04.940elbows up because now he wants to make a deal it seems like he doesn't want to make a deal but he
00:09:09.500also keeps giving out concessions so it's like he's completely destroying the liberals elbows up
00:09:13.760brand when that was like their best issue this is where i always say to conservatives that they
00:09:18.680really need to kick the stilts out from under carney by dominating this issue and they don't
00:09:24.380need to go anti-trump to do it they don't need to go pro-trump to do it either they basically just
00:09:28.560need to point out how he keeps he keeps talking tough and making concessions then hey if you put
00:09:34.160conservatives in, the only time we'll ever give something up is when we get something better in
00:09:38.340return. But Carney has set the expectations for his negotiating skills so high, he has basically
00:09:44.080made it that he's never going to step in the room and actually negotiate with Trump because to get
00:09:49.040a deal, he'd have to give something up. And he's basically lied to his own voters and saying,
00:09:53.060I'm not going to accept anything that's not the best deal for Canada. And he's kind of implied
00:09:58.740that giving up anything would make it a bad deal, which is so ironic because he constantly makes
00:10:04.100concessions behind the scenes but small enough ones he's hoping his base doesn't notice but
00:10:08.420but overall like this is where the conservatives can dominate the issue point out how the guy's
00:10:12.760complete fraud he's a wimp at the same time he's too proud to go get a deal signed he won't get a
00:10:18.840deal and yet he's still giving up concessions that's the angle for the conservatives and the
00:10:23.440great thing is that right now even when they are trailing by six points with people who make the
00:10:29.640cost of living their top issue, which I will remind you is 65% of voters, effectively two-thirds of
00:10:37.220Canadian voters, put cost of living as their top issue. That is an issue that even when the liberals
00:10:42.740are leading in the polls by six points, of the people who picked cost of living, the conservatives
00:10:47.500are usually leading by three, four, five percentage points on that one. Also on the economy, also on
00:10:53.400immigration. That's the funny thing. Carney, if I was to give him a compliment, his best issue in
00:10:58.760terms of performance on policy has been immigration. You know, it's still not enough. We still need to
00:11:04.320cut immigration way more. We still need to deport a lot of people here illegally here, people here
00:11:09.460abusing the welfare system, people committing crimes. But overall, for positive momentum on an
00:11:14.560issue, it's by far his best one. But because that's such a conservative coded issue, the funny thing
00:11:20.640is the conservatives still lead on it heavily. Now, no doubt, Donald Trump and his administration
00:11:25.620is always going to be a very positive issue for the liberals that when you ask people who's doing
00:11:30.400the best job on it or who would do a better job on it between Carney and Polyev, Carney will lead.
00:11:36.180It doesn't really matter though, but if that issue is becoming higher in prominence, but it's not
00:11:40.600really bumping up the liberal polling numbers, it's yes, an issue that people on a surface level
00:11:45.760trust the liberals on more, but it doesn't really have the galvanizing get the vote effect that it
00:11:52.260once had back in January and February of 2026 or back during the last federal election.
00:11:58.920It's a fading issue, and now Carney actually has to start doing well when it comes to the
00:12:03.800economy or other issues for him to actually replace that one.
00:12:07.420And that's like challenge level impossible for the liberals to do a good job on the economy.
00:12:12.600Yes, they're ballyhooing the whole idea of, oh, hey, look, the economy jumped up in like
00:12:22.260resource prices went up and that's the only reason the gdp is currently growing
00:12:27.700in fact all of the growth all of the permanent job growth is coming from the province of alberta not
00:12:33.540actually all of it but 50 percent of new permanent jobs are from a province that only represents 12
00:12:41.060of canadians that's also including crime in terms of of all of the drops in crime that carney's
00:12:47.300trying to celebrate most of the momentum on crushing the crime rate is from alberta we had
00:12:54.260the crime rate go down in 2025 by eight percentage points while other provinces either had their
00:13:00.020crimes slightly rise or only fall by like one percent or two percent which is an absolute
00:13:05.460rounding error when it comes to the amount of violent crimes happening in your cities every
00:13:09.940single year but the one thing i want to do before i close out this video so i hope that you know
00:13:14.740The lesson here is that Carney, by screwing up on the Trump issue constantly, by looking weak, he is actually completely destroying his brand on the Trump issue, which is his driving force.
00:13:27.080So that's the big takeaway here, is that they are no longer basically getting the same amount of juice from that issue.
00:13:34.520And now the last thing I want to talk about is the way the liberals are going to try and message their way out of this.
00:13:39.240They are going to pivot to the economy and pretend that they are catalyzing and doing whatever other big words that Carney likes to use when it comes to growing the economy.
00:13:50.340Projects that by themselves, just by themselves in these two agreements, will catalyze well over $200 billion in direct investments in Canada, creating almost 200,000 new jobs right across the country.
00:14:05.680becoming an energy superpower, delivering those benefits for Canadians means more than just a
00:14:10.340connected grid. It means getting big things built in every part of the country. Now, do you even
00:14:16.600know what he's talking about? Because I really don't. I often don't preview the clips. And my
00:14:22.560point on not previewing the clip is that it doesn't really matter what he's talking about here.
00:14:26.740We have heard the speech 10,000 times that we've signed an agreement to bring in some absurdly
00:14:33.360large number of investments into Canada and it's going to create this many permanent jobs
00:14:38.980and it's going to buy this many people's way into heaven or whatever he always just
00:14:43.520way over promises on all these things and I think that all this is also not working anymore because
00:14:50.540I've never I have not seen the liberals pivot at all when it comes to their economic messaging
00:14:54.640because I think they always believe the Trump issue was going to be the one to carry them
00:14:58.100So on other issues, they could be mediocre. I see nothing here that actually would bring any more people into the liberal coalition. I think he's kind of in a bit of a bleeding error right now where there's no there's no positive momentum for them. All it is going to be in the next three or four months is seeing how little support they can lose. Not gaining support. They're gaining nothing right now.
00:15:19.380Like a lot of liberals are going back to the NDP because of just how badly he screwed up on the Trump issue, as well as the fact that he's now pushing pipelines in their two left wing to support a party that's even just slightly rhetorically in favor of pipelines.
00:15:34.100But he's not at all improved on his actual pitch on anything but the Trump issue.
00:15:39.220The agreements between the federal government and the government of British Columbia,
00:15:44.720agreement with the government of Alberta, clear the path for major projects in both provinces,
00:15:49.880projects in clean and conventional energy and transportation, critical minerals, projects that
00:15:54.520by themselves, just by themselves in these two agreements, will catalyze well over $200 billion
00:15:59.720in direct investments in Canada, creating almost $200,000. Okay, so apparently this is about the
00:16:06.980pipeline. It's always great to brag about something that's not going to be built for 10
00:16:12.900years. You can't take credit for simply saying, oh, I might allow it on a pipeline someday. You
00:16:20.480have not gotten that $200 billion. And I think that the Conservatives should start making almost
00:16:25.900like parody type videos about all the things that you can announce in one day. And then 100 years,
00:16:30.900I'm going to catalyze a trillion dollars of investment in gold mining up in the territories.
00:16:36.300And, you know, by 2200, we're also going to have new manufacturing centers all over Manitoba.
00:16:45.380It's like, OK, but that's not even going to happen in anyone's lifetime.
00:16:49.940Ten years to build a pipeline where they only have to actually break ground on it sometime in 2029 if they don't push the date back further.
00:16:58.520This is not something you can brag about.
00:17:00.320He won't even be prime minister when this thing is done.
00:17:03.100And yet he's like literally doing the thing of counting your chickens before they hatch.
00:17:57.920If you happen to live in that riding, I always like to talk to people about kind of like what their impression of the riding is, you know, where the strong what some strong issues are for the conservatives.
00:18:07.380It's not that I have no clue. It's just that sometimes people have like an oddly specific piece of advice they can give you that's really, really helpful that you wouldn't know unless you lived on their specific block.
00:18:18.360Like Calgary Curry is way more competitive than people think.
00:18:22.800It was a plus 13 NDP riding in the last election, but it's mostly just because the east side
00:18:28.280of the riding near the downtown had areas where the NDP won the area by like 33% of