In this episode, we go over the latest numbers from Abacus Data, showing a continued decline in the polls for Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals. The problem for the Liberals is that every time they shoot up in polls, it's not because they're doing a good job. It's mostly because Donald Trump is in the headlines.
00:01:22.400And then I also want to let you guys know, if you live in the province of Alberta, please sign up at my website pinned at the top of the comments below, wyattclaypool.com.
00:01:32.480Join my email list because I'm going to be trying to recommend good nomination candidates for UCP nominations all over the province ahead of the next provincial election.
00:01:41.900And as I've been talking about, I will also be potentially running for, I got a big map here, guys, I will be potentially running for the riding of Calgary Curry, which is right next to Calgary West, next to Calgary Buffalo, a little bit, you know, below Calgary Bow and Mountain View.
00:02:00.300if you live in this area, especially make sure to sign up and become a member of my list on the
00:02:07.980website because I'll probably give you a call and see if you want to buy a membership and support
00:02:13.340me for that riding nomination. Sorry, clunky transition there, guys. But now let's get into
00:02:20.620the data. So back in mid-May, the liberals in the abacus data poll were punching up to 47%
00:02:30.300in the polls. That is a great result for the liberals in an abacus data poll.
00:02:35.720Considering abacus data even has a slight conservative lean, I don't even exactly believe
00:02:41.800that. They're more so just conservative leaning compared to nanos and ecos, which are massively
00:02:46.940left-wing leaning. Really, I would just say that I think abacus data is quite fair. So in their
00:02:53.200mid-May poll, we had the Liberals at 47% of the vote. The Conservatives were significantly behind,
00:03:02.320only hitting 35% of the vote, a 12% difference between the Liberals and the Conservatives.
00:03:10.020The NDP had been improving a little bit since the last election, but nothing to write home about
00:03:16.360exactly. They're sitting at 8% in this mid-May poll. The Bloc Quebecois sitting at 6% exactly
00:03:24.200where they finished in the last election. Obviously, when you actually consider that's
00:03:28.280only in Quebec, it's more significant than you think, of course. The Greens, we have at 2% of
00:03:33.840the vote. And also in this poll, I think the PPC is at 1%. They pretty much oscillate between being
00:03:41.0401% or 2% in most abacus data polls, I really doubt they're ever going to achieve more than
00:03:47.9001% again. There's just no market for the PPC these days. Now, in 2021, significantly, there was a big
00:03:55.480market for the PPC because they were the only strongly anti-mandate, anti-lockdown party.
00:04:02.500But since then, with Polyev having moved the party to the right, since Erin O'Toole was the leader,
00:04:08.440there's just no mark for the PPC anymore. And I think that they're probably going to basically
00:04:14.200be dissolved within the next couple of election cycles or so after they basically start performing
00:04:19.500as well as other small fringe parties like the Libertarians or the Christian Heritage Party.
00:04:25.060But again, let's just sum this up. So in this poll, back in mid-May, we have the Liberals plus
00:04:32.16012%. We have the NDP only sitting at eight, block not moving. And with this kind of margin,
00:04:40.340you would probably have the Liberals winning more than 220 seats across the country and probably
00:04:46.460digging into more Western provinces in the suburban city areas. This was a very, very,
00:04:54.140very bad luck for the Conservatives. But now let's jump ahead by a couple months to this new
00:05:00.380mid-July poll and see where the parties are currently sitting. I'm just going to clear the
00:05:04.700whiteboard and I'll be back in a flash. Look at that, everyone. Movie magic. The board is now
00:05:12.260clear. How could I do that? I must be a magician. Anyways, now let's get into what the current
00:05:18.360Abacus data polls show us. And the thing I want to actually mention before I get into this is that
00:05:24.140this poll is surveyed. I'll just write it down here. 4,200 individuals. This is a very, very
00:05:33.700high sample size. Sometimes when you only poll like 800 to 1,200 people, you have like a three
00:05:39.620and a half to 4% margin of error. When you're polling 2,000, 3,000, your margin of error is
00:05:46.080then falling from three to two and a half. This is going to be around a one and a half to 2%
00:05:51.820margin of error. So pretty much you can generally assume that this poll is accurate. Now, no poll
00:05:58.340is accurate to exact election results, but I would say that even if you don't think that the numbers,
00:06:04.820maybe you think the conservatives are still being under-polled in the numbers I'm about to write
00:06:09.120down, maybe it's more so, think about it as momentum. What party has momentum? Generally,
00:06:15.300the numbers are going to be accurate. Maybe the conservatives are still understated a little bit,
00:06:19.240or maybe the Liberals are overstated or the NDP is overstated, it doesn't really matter exactly.
00:06:25.780This is more so giving you a map of the attitude of Canadians, even if in an election cycle it wouldn't exactly break down this way.
00:06:34.960But right now, as of the latest polls, the Liberals are at 43% of the vote,
00:06:43.180which isn't that bad considering that that is what they had last election,
00:06:47.460but definitely they would have probably wanted to have grown since then so having fallen back down
00:06:53.040to what they had last election isn't brilliant for them obviously they are still in the lead
00:06:58.380but the conservatives are now sitting at 37 percent of the vote
00:07:04.760now just down six percent as you will note that is only half as much of a lead as the liberals had
00:07:13.320back in mid-May just a couple of months ago. The NDP is then sitting with nine percent of the vote.
00:11:25.680So this poll was conducted during the period that the condo controversy was going on.
00:11:33.080The liberals and the BCNDP bail out a bunch of Vancouver area condo developers because they were going to lose profits.
00:11:39.700Apparently, that's a reason to bail out a developer.
00:11:42.580You'd have to bail out a lot of people all the time of just not profiting on a venture,
00:11:46.840meant that the government should step in and hand you cash, but that time period fully encompasses
00:11:52.900the condo controversy, but what you can probably notice here is that since it cuts off on the 16th
00:12:02.580and it's currently the 19th that I'm talking to you guys, that didn't really fully capture
00:12:08.560the latest Gordie Howe bridge controversy. Even when a controversy hits, it usually takes a
00:12:14.960couple of days for it to actually digest into the public consciousness. Between the 9th and the
00:12:20.04016th, the Gordie Howe Bridge controversy had really only started maybe on the 12th or the 13th.
00:12:26.900So you're only capturing a few days of the Gordie Howe Bridge controversy even being relevant
00:12:32.300to the polling timeline. At the same time, even when it did hit, it took a few days for the news
00:12:40.300basically come out that Carney was obviously lying about like it being a great deal for Canadians
00:12:47.400and no don't worry it's only profit sharing it's not a revenue share it's been proven to be wrong
00:12:52.940he looks like he was pushed around by Donald Trump and as we're going to see in the issue polling
00:12:57.460that's a significant issue for the liberals they really need to be the party good on Trump if they
00:13:02.860start sliding on that metric they're in trouble anyways so I'm gonna pause clear off this board
00:13:08.980and then we're going to come back with the issue by issue polling. Okay, we're back. And I've just
00:13:15.500want to show you the guy something on the actual screen first, just so you can understand how what
00:13:21.720my methodology here is. So I have five of the top issues for Canadians picked out here. And I want
00:13:28.640to show you on the chart why I'm doing this. So abacus data here shows the top three priorities
00:13:34.760for federal government right now. People pick three topics and the percentages show how many
00:13:42.240people chose that as one of their three. So I've only picked issues that are in the top five because
00:13:48.720naturally things like China and Russia, reconciliation, income inequality and poverty
00:13:55.600and all this stuff, climate change, it's being picked by so few people as one of their top three
00:14:01.900issues. The margin of error, even with 4,200 people being polled, is pretty low. Those end
00:14:08.160up being niche issues, like climate change in this latest abacus data poll is being won by
00:14:13.860the Greens, despite only having 3% of national support. But you can be sure that all 3% of
00:14:20.720Green voters end up picking the climate as one of their top three issues, and naturally they say
00:14:26.940that they trust the Greens the most with that issue. And so that is the one area that the
00:14:31.560Greens actually lead on one of the issue polls. But again, it doesn't really mean anything to
00:14:37.540what the average Canadian is actually going to be voting on. Most Canadians are voting for
00:14:43.420the Liberals or the Conservatives, and then there is some small minority of people voting NDP and
00:14:49.320Bloc. The NDP are somewhat relevant to this chart just because it could show where left-wing votes
00:14:55.160might be going, but I mainly just want to be looking at where votes are shifting between the
00:15:00.220conservatives and the liberals. So we have here the cost of living, which is by far the biggest
00:15:06.180issue, picked by 64% of people in their top three. Then the economy, which is kind of the same,
00:15:12.640but not quite. It's more about growth metrics. Are we shrinking? Are we growing? How are people's
00:15:20.200investments? Stuff like that. It's more about general economic health rather than grocery
00:15:25.020store prices. Then we have Trump and his administration, healthcare and housing. And I
00:15:30.580actually want to start out with healthcare because it's a good sort of like calibrating issue. Not
00:15:37.040much has really happened federally when it comes to the healthcare issue. And this is an issue that
00:15:42.560you expect the liberals to win on. And right now between the liberals and the conservatives,
00:15:47.180the liberals are absolutely leading on that issue. And since the last poll, I believe,
00:15:52.000and basically, yeah, I'm checking it out right now, really hasn't shifted at all. The Liberals
00:15:57.420used to be at 38%, now they're at 37%, which is insignificant. So on the issue of health care,
00:16:04.180Liberals are chosen by 37% of Canadians as being the party they trust most dealing with that issue,
00:16:11.980followed by the Conservatives at 22%, and then we have the NDP at 16%. I'm not going to write any
00:16:19.840party's numbers down unless they're above 10 or else it's pretty insignificant. But that is a
00:16:28.040pretty normal sort of a result that you get with healthcare. Yes, the NDP is only at 8% or 9% in
00:16:36.180the poll, yet they punch up to 16. It's because nurses, public sector workers tend to be very
00:16:42.960default NDP voters. And on healthcare, because the NDP always promised to spend way more than
00:16:48.420everybody else. There is a stalwart faction of people who really like the NDP on healthcare
00:16:53.860because of their, you know, very pro-spending kind of position on that. You get other issues
00:16:58.820like the economy where the NDP basically don't even register. But let's go to the rising cost
00:17:05.700of living. Rising cost of living, we have the liberals currently trailing the conservatives
00:17:13.180with only 30% of people thinking that they are the best on that issue, with the conservatives
00:17:19.740actually leading with a pretty significant amount of the vote, with 36% of people believing the
00:17:27.300conservatives would be the best on that issue. And now remember, the people voting on who would
00:17:32.020be best are the people who chose it as one of their top three issues. And then on the cost of
00:17:37.740living. We also have the NDP barely squeaking, squeaking into the relevance window with 10
00:17:43.620points. Now, over here, I want to show you guys what the margin used to be. So maybe I'll just
00:17:51.420kind of drop a line down here on the side to separate the two. Previously, back in mid-May,
00:17:59.360on the cost of living issue, so I guess on healthcare, I'll just quickly write down what
00:18:03.940the liberal lead was on that issue. Back on healthcare, it was a plus. Since the last one,
00:18:11.660it's been... I'll just keep writing it in black. How should I write this down? I'll just write
00:18:19.960down what the leading party's number was a couple months ago. Back on healthcare a couple months
00:18:29.120ago, the Liberals had 38% on that issue. Cost of living is a pretty big one. Liberals, last poll
00:18:39.660in mid-May, were at 37% on cost of living, with the Conservatives back then only at 35%, well,
00:18:49.100actually not only at 35%, but at 35%, and the NDP was at 9%. But we've just basically seen
00:18:55.900a massive slide, not over to the Conservatives, not over to the NDP. Those two parties basically
00:19:01.000have not shifted since two months ago. But the Liberals went from 37 to 30 simply because people
00:19:07.620are now not sure if they trust the Liberals more. The undecided category has been the biggest gainer
00:19:13.000in that category since mid-May. So that's a really good opportunity for the Conservatives
00:19:19.060that they are currently leading in a poll of 4,200 people, where 64% of people picked it as
00:19:25.940one of their top three issues, the cost of living, and it's probably the top issue for a lot of
00:19:30.640people. And all those people, the 64% of the 4,200 people who picked it as one of their top three
00:19:36.500issues, 36% say the Conservatives are the best on that issues, leading the Liberals by six
00:19:41.520similar story here on the economy the economy right now has the conservatives leading with
00:19:51.40041 percent of the vote uh maybe yeah i'll just start writing them in order all the time rather
00:19:57.180than writing the winner first 41 percent of people trust the conservatives on the economy most right
00:20:01.660now with the liberals sitting at 38 percent and the ndp and every other party not significant
00:20:08.220enough to write down. Since the last poll, the liberals on the economy were actually the ones
00:20:14.380at 43%. They were 43 and the conservatives were 40. So that is a 5% loss since the last time. I
00:20:23.220guess over here, maybe I'll just write what the liberals always were two months ago, because they
00:20:27.240were pretty much leading on everything. Housing. Housing has been an issue that has been pretty
00:20:32.820good for the conservatives over time as well, just like cost of living and the economy. And also
00:20:38.200So immigration has always been very good for the conservatives as well.
00:20:42.600When it comes to housing affordability, the conservatives in the latest poll are sitting at 31%, with the liberals at 29%, and the NDP with 16%, mostly because of pro-rent control type narratives that the NDP runs on that are quite popular with a certain
00:21:08.180type of progressive left urbanite voter but back just a couple of months ago on housing affordability
00:21:15.840the liberals were at 36 percent of the vote oh wait i was writing these all on trump why am i
00:21:21.960doing that oh string me up people i'm barely paying attention sometimes so what do we have here