00:00:00.000Mark Carney always pretends to be an expert among experts wherever he goes, and that's why it's so satisfying when someone who is an actual expert ends up schooling him on a subject.
00:00:13.960In this case, Mark Warner absolutely decimates Mark Carney's position on trade with the United States.
00:00:21.360But before I get into the clip of Mark Warner, I just want to freshen us up on the very delusional worldview of Mark Carney when it comes to this trade conflict.
00:00:32.580He is claiming that right now Canada is stronger than ever before.
00:00:54.940He's using an article from August 7th saying Canadian economy added 75,000 jobs in July.
00:01:04.520That's funny because this video is from September 8th.
00:01:09.820After the news came out, we lost 42,000 jobs in August, the peak employment month for the economy.
00:01:17.620that is the month where jobs employment should be the highest it is all year long and we just lost
00:01:26.08042 000 jobs and the liberals have added in this this like screenshot of an article from a month
00:01:35.360ago saying you know a month ago we added a bunch of jobs okay cool summer jobs and we just lost
00:01:41.500an absolute crap load of jobs during a month where you are expecting to add them even in a bad year.
00:01:49.200More ambitious. Our non-U.S. exports are up sharply, and they're on track to double over
00:01:54.160the next decade. Yes, the problem though is we trade 78% with the U.S. If we double them in a
00:02:01.160decade, that still wouldn't really do all that much if we start losing even small fractions of
00:02:07.180exports to the united states foreign direct investment in canada is at its highest level
00:02:13.340in two decades and it's running at twice the rate of our nearest g7 competitor canada is now rated
00:02:20.220as the most attractive country in the world for infrastructure investment our growth is
00:02:25.260accelerating and it's projected to be the second fastest in the g7 this year and next so with the
00:02:32.300resilient economy in the strongest fiscal position in the g7 we have everything we need to pivot
00:02:39.980and prosper that pivot will come at a cost there's always a cost to action but it doesn't come close
00:02:47.180to the cost of standing still but the funny thing is in the same clip he's saying that we're stronger
00:02:52.540than ever he kind of insinuates that we're gonna be dealing with some pain as well that yes well
00:02:58.380well, we shouldn't back down just because, you know, doing so would cause less pain. We should
00:03:03.160stand strong. And it's like, well, what is it? Are we stronger than ever? Or are we going to
00:03:08.060incur pain? And I always hate all the dumb metrics he uses in his posts and in his speeches,0.98
00:03:15.060where he says, we're the most attractive economy for investment in infrastructure.0.96
00:03:20.720Like, what kind of skewed metric is that? Really? We're an economy losing 42,000 jobs in August, 20,000 of which were in construction, and yet we're the best country in the G7 when it comes to infrastructure spending.
00:03:37.940We're the most attractive. Like, we're the most attractive country for agricultural development. We're downright sexy when it comes to agricultural development. What does that mean? I don't know. It probably just means that the government throws a lot of subsidies at projects so companies might want to invest simply because they're barely carrying the burden of the actual cost.
00:03:59.840maybe that's not what it is but again there's no objective metric that would tell you that
00:04:04.760Canada's economy is doing well right now yet from the really strange perspective of Mark Carney
00:04:11.660we're better than ever but also endure the pain because it's good why are we having why are we
00:04:18.140enduring so much pain well because we're so strong it's like okay but now we have to get to Mark
00:04:23.620warner who is an actual expert on trade and he is what mark carney pretends to be clear-eyed he says
00:04:31.540a lot of things elbows up people don't want to hear and he's not trying to dunk on them he's not0.99
00:04:35.900trying to tell them they're all dumb and silly he just is pointing out the rules of the board game0.87
00:04:41.480there are certain moves you can make and there are certain moves that you cannot make and so how does0.98
00:04:46.680canada end up end up in a winning position if you listen to people like mark warner unlike mark
00:04:51.800Carney, if you were involved in the trade, the trade situation in Canada, you would do a far
00:04:57.920better job than the current Canadian government. But check out this interview on the CBC, which
00:05:02.840suspiciously, the CBC is not actually uploaded onto its YouTube channel, even though this has
00:05:07.400been up for like 18 hours or so. And usually they get their segments posted onto the YouTube
00:05:12.580channel within sometimes just, you know, seven, eight hours or whatever. But here's Mark Warner
00:05:18.300on cbc news talking about trade trade lawyer with ma law uh mark good morning to you good morning
00:05:25.180uh you have been uh something of a critic of um trying to do this why why is it that you think
00:05:30.380canadian counter tariffs that punching back against a punch is the wrong move i just think
00:05:35.740canada is too small i mean we're one tenth the size of the united states and just but the essence
00:05:41.100of that is when you get into a tit-for-tat war uh it it is going to be felt more on the canadian
00:05:46.700side to the american side and i know there are lots of politicians who say they'll feel it too
00:05:51.100uh they won't feel it as much and yes i suppose you can target certain states for political
00:05:56.060purposes but you know i've as i've said before in other places i think that that's a complete
00:06:00.300misreading of where we are now the view that you could affect congressional elections was
00:06:08.060dates from a time when the source of protectionism in american politics was in congress not in the
00:06:13.260president i think it's a fundamental misreading of how this works now the problem we have is with
00:06:18.540mr trump who doesn't really care about congress so i just think this is all wrong they get it wrong
00:06:23.580on the law they get it wrong in the politics they have it wrong on the uh on the man but it's what
00:06:28.860everyone seems to believe in the establishment in canada and i guess we'll have to play it out
00:06:34.700and he's right there's this delusional idea that somehow us fighting back with counter tariffs is
00:06:41.020going to make trump suddenly go whoa whoa whoa i didn't realize they were going to do this and
00:06:45.420then just take all the tariffs off or we're going to get the democrats to win the midterm elections
00:06:50.780which even yes typically the party out of power ends up winning the midterms but even that looks
00:06:56.140shaky because of all the insane dsa candidates the democrats are currently running but even then the
00:07:01.900democrats are traditionally pro protectionism so what but again the whole thing has just been
00:07:08.220filtered through this anti-Trump lens where we just assume Trump is the source of all problems.
00:07:14.560Yes, I don't like the tariffs. I would like them off. A lot of that is because of Trump and his
00:07:19.680particular personality, especially his love for using tariffs as an economic tool. But at the
00:07:26.020same time, if we just assume this is just purely a Trump problem, and if we focus our fire on the
00:07:31.580personality that is Donald Trump, eventually we'll get what we want. And that's just not how it works.
00:07:36.780What is the alternative for you then, Mark?
00:07:41.380I think that they were pretty close to an agreement.
00:07:44.400Some of what Canada is asking for is, in my mind, unrealistic.
00:07:50.480The Prime Minister, I believe, and the Minister of Law have accepted that there were going to be tariffs at the end of this process.
00:07:58.880So from the sexual tariffs that we saw on aluminum and steel are not going to be removed.
00:08:04.780I don't know that Canada has enough leverage on things like critical minerals to get that down even further.
00:08:10.440And the sad thing is, we used to have more leverage, but both time and dumb concessions for nothing has eroded that leverage.
00:08:20.160And now liberals sit around saying, oh, Trump won't budge, he's unreasonable.
00:08:24.040Is he super reasonable? Probably not. Is he unreasonable? Maybe.
00:08:29.220at the same time how about we try and use how about we it would have been nice if we actually
00:08:35.400used our leverage we previously had to lower them than wasting it all and saying the game's
00:08:40.280impossible it's like the game only feels impossible because you've been breaking your own pieces for
00:08:45.320no reason dummy i think at some point you have to say like every other country in the world
00:08:51.500let's get to an agreement and then move past Mr. Trump and for some reason Canadian politicians
00:08:59.240don't want to do what every other country wants to yeah there'll be people in Europe
00:09:02.320cheering us on but they're not doing what Mr. Carney's doing nobody's doing it you kind of
00:09:06.840lose sight of that but and he's right the EU is actually negotiating they got to a deal pretty
00:09:13.540quickly and an EU negotiator an EU representative was on the CBC with the same host and he was
00:09:20.000asking her, well, how can you trust Trump? And she's just like, well, because partners have to
00:09:24.260trust each other. And you're never going to sign anything. If 100% guarantees were the gold
00:09:30.980standard and the only thing you were willing to accept, nobody would ever sign anything.
00:09:35.120And we're economic partners, we're allies, and we're going to rely on each other that the deal
00:09:40.340will hold. But in Canada, we keep using this idea that, well, he might break the deal to not sign
00:09:46.680anything or to not even take negotiating seriously. Again, the flaws in the trade agreement that we
00:09:52.280had basically heard rumors of because we've never seen the actual deal, many of the flaws in the
00:09:58.260deal, the problem is, is that I think that they originate from the fact Mark Carney wasn't taking
00:10:02.960the negotiation seriously. Heck, he was in Tuscany drinking Aperol spritz instead of engaging
00:10:09.900directly in the trade talks. He wasn't even anywhere close to the same time zone. So of
00:10:15.740course we end up with a bad deal of course we end up with a flawed looking deal that i would have
00:10:21.200not signed because carney left so much stuff off the table and drew red lines around completely
00:10:26.680incoherent issues that is the problem but mexico's gotten an agreement japan has the uk has the like
00:10:35.120the the eu has tons of countries have figured this thing out and we can't because carney is
00:10:42.240more concerned with his polling numbers than actually delivering for Canadians. But the
00:10:48.100problem is there's too many Canadian voters who thinks Carney getting into these little
00:10:52.320tit-for-tat fights with Trump to boost his popularity is the Canadian interest, because
00:10:57.360they are from, as my friend Michael Gagan say, the laptop class who does not get dirt under
00:11:03.680their fingernails and does not realize that when tariffs remain in place, many of those
00:11:08.340hard, hands-on jobs go away, and eventually their laptop jobs will go away as well.
00:11:14.220Mark, there is a counterargument here that says that there is no other country in the world that
00:11:18.080has a trading relationship with the Americans as we do, that the economy with no other country,
00:11:23.120with possibly the exception of Mexico, is as deeply integrated as Canada is, and that to hear
00:11:28.940the Carney government tell it at the negotiating table, the Trump administration was asking for
00:11:33.500things that were simply intolerable that would have surrendered portions of this country in a
00:11:38.680permanent sense yeah i you know i i'm sorry to disagree with the prime minister but i i never
00:11:45.020thought the prime minister's initial description was all that credible to me as a trade lawyer
00:11:49.720um i think that if he if he wants if he sold it to the public which is fine um selling it to me
00:11:55.660is a different matter i i i don't i think he has to do more than say that he has to say specifically
00:12:00.360what he thinks they're asking for that is unacceptable. I don't think you just assert
00:12:05.140that. The stuff he said about sovereignty and the future trade agreements doesn't make any sense
00:12:10.460to me as a trade lawyer, which asks more questions to me, because then I say, well, okay, if you're
00:12:16.720willing to dissemble on something like that, how can I take the rest of it seriously? Yes,
00:12:22.020that we've known from the beginning that they want to harmonize tariffs on some of these sexual
00:12:26.580tariffs like steel and aluminum which jacardi wants to characterize that as a sovereignty question
00:12:31.220then what's he been doing for two years because that's not going away that's in every agreement
00:12:35.060they sign that's in every agreement they're concerned about china and when you're concerned
00:12:39.700about china and you also have to be concerned in some cases with steel with with india as well
00:12:44.500that's why the agreement that mark uh that uh that keir starmer signed the united kingdom with
00:12:49.140with donald trump has never gone anywhere because when he got home he couldn't sell to his steel
00:12:53.220producers because the americans said ah no we don't want that indian steel um because we're
00:12:58.440not sure of its provenance yet so now he's basically saying that the problem with the
00:13:04.900uk deal that trump signed and was on the american side the american steel producers actually had a
00:13:10.180problem with the deal that he originally signed with keir starmer in the united kingdom because
00:13:15.580it was too loose on steel imports from the uk considering that the uk lets in indian steel
00:13:23.460that oftentimes is fungible with a lot of chinese goods into their economy so you never know if
00:13:29.660china or india is using canada or the uk or another country as just basically a relabeling
00:13:37.480point for their goods because mainly this is an issue with china again india and china india and
00:13:43.740trying to have a lot of trade between each other. China will, or India will engage in a lot of
00:13:47.760relabeling of Chinese goods to then go out elsewhere. And so when it comes to the Trump
00:13:53.280administration in America, because they want to sap the strength of the Chinese economy,
00:13:58.720it doesn't, they can't just tariff the Chinese economy on steel and aluminum and then leave it
00:14:03.800free for everybody else. Now, again, I'm an anti-tariff guy, but I do believe in tariffs
00:14:09.740for national security reasons so in theory we could actually get to far lower steel and aluminum
00:14:15.300tariffs if if canada basically said okay no more chinese steel and aluminum in our economy or at
00:14:22.820the very least if it comes in it's not being relabeled it will stay as chinese steel we will
00:14:26.800have oversight on all that we're not going to become a pass through for chinese goods but carney0.87
00:14:31.720keeps embracing the ccp more he's letting ev dumping take place in canada he's letting a lot0.68
00:14:38.020of other goods get dumped here from a country, by the way, that has interfered in our elections,0.99
00:14:44.520kidnapped our people, harasses Chinese nationals who moved to Canada to get away from the CCP
00:14:49.940with basically secret CCP police stations around the country. They've stolen our IP. We just had
00:14:57.400a Canadian intern at NATO basically acting as a spy for the CCP. We have a little bit of a CCP
00:15:04.700problem. So although many of the parts of the American perspective on trade I disagree with,
00:15:11.400when it comes to their concern with China, I can't disagree with them on this one.
00:15:16.520Canada is uniquely naive when it comes to the Chinese government. And when we are basically0.91
00:15:22.260unwilling to sever that connection and demanding low or no tariffs on steel and aluminum,
00:15:27.120the Americans just look at it as, oh my goodness, China's just going to use Canada
00:15:31.460as it's passed through so if we try and sap the strength they're not allowing chinese goods
00:15:36.140they'll ship them to canada and have them go for the border of british columbia
00:15:39.740anyways well let's get back into this also one page long mark i mean it was yeah that's why it
00:15:45.680was a post-it note of a trade deal and you know what he's not bothering the british very much
00:15:51.200see that's that's the problem with the canadian approach the europeans as they say the british
00:15:55.600and the europeans um they may they've decided to use this as a way of managing an issue with him
00:16:01.160I take your point that we're more integrated, but we're more integrated because we have a trade agreement, which seems to me is just the opposite reason what the prime minister is doing. That's why we should be trying to preserve that. And he seems, I don't know, I don't really completely understand it. I mean, I think I see the politics of it. I don't see the economics of it. And I don't see that the government has left much room to get back to a negotiating table with the United States without a complete climb down from Mr. Trump, which, again, my reading of the
00:16:31.140man is that's not what he's going to do so I don't understand I just don't
00:16:34.860understand the strategy I do I do hear a lot of people in Ottawa professors and
00:16:40.020pundits who say the midterms and the Democrats who historically the most
00:16:44.540protectionist party when it comes to Canada that Donald Trump's
00:16:47.640protectionism dates from when he was a Democrat that does somehow they're
00:16:51.820gonna ride to the rescue all of this accountability stuff they have to deal
00:16:55.520with each bit whatever else all the economic issues they're they're gonna
00:16:59.380to come. Canada is going to come top of the list. It's an insane position. And it's one that's
00:17:04.720shared by a lot of people who are influential in Canada. And it just, it's a fever that has to
00:17:09.240burn out is the way I look at it. But I don't see, I don't see any scenario where you're looking at
00:17:13.720a total blind down from Trump. So that seems to me that we're looking in for the long haul.
00:17:18.800And I don't care for Mark Carney, any from the prime minister, any sort of that he's left himself
00:17:24.680And what he's saying here when he talks about the room that Mark Carney has for himself, and he previously was also talking about it when talking about basically expecting a climb down from Trump, is that Carney rhetorically has put himself on such a perch, he could not climb down unless Trump comes and gets him and rescues him.
00:17:44.260in the sense that Carney now relies on Trump basically just doing whatever is in his wildest
00:17:50.640fever dream of what Trump would be willing to do in order to save Mark Carney from his
00:17:57.300ultra-nationalist position where, you know, the U.S. is going to have to come to me, and also
00:18:02.420they're going to have to delete all their memes and apologize first and all this stuff. It's like,
00:18:10.060So how are you going to save Canadian jobs?
00:18:13.500How are you going to protect the Canadian economy?
00:18:17.340And protect doesn't just mean I get my elbows up and I get mad at Trump.
00:18:21.340No, people's jobs rely on money coming in from the United States.
00:18:26.260It relies on orders coming in from the United States.
00:18:29.340If we are incapable of filling those orders because there are tariffs in place that make our products non-competitive, that's a problem.
00:18:37.080And you cannot just keep citing, well, we're going to be our best-owned customer.
00:18:41.240Why is construction failing then right now?
00:18:43.360Why is construction going down if we could be our best-owned customer and sell to ourselves to build buildings in Canada?
00:18:49.880It's almost like you can't do that, especially considering how we have so many internal trade barriers in our country right now
00:18:56.300that prevents us from doing business with ourselves.
00:18:59.840On anything that isn't tariffed right now, it's still easier to ship it to the United States than it is between provinces.
00:19:05.020is but uh there's a little bit more on this mark warner thing i think it's really worth seeing the
00:19:09.660whole video that's why i'm playing the whole thing here because goodness the man's knowledge on trade
00:19:15.200and it's just his realistic out view is a breath of fresh air compared to the prime minister mark
00:19:20.420carney boxed himself to my mind into a corner which look as if someone in a negotiation it's
00:19:27.080never whatever kind of negotiation you're doing boxing yourself into a corner and leaving yourself
00:19:31.700no room to go anywhere it's not great negotiation especially if you're the weaker party yeah marco
00:19:37.460you want to jump in on you because we began questions um from people over the course of
00:19:40.740the morning um one person weighing writing in um and asking why canada has not been tariffing in
00:19:47.140places that may hurt the most potash oil and gas recognizing mark that you are generally a critic
00:19:52.980of canadian counter tariffs writ large no i actually i hate the way that they keep saying
00:19:57.700that mark warner is a critic mark warner is made a critic as i said at the beginning he is a man
00:20:03.120who read the rule book to the board game there are things you can do and there are things you
00:20:07.160cannot do and on this issue of you know putting an export tariff on oil and gas or potash to put
00:20:13.800pressure on the americans he explains how it's not just in his opinion it's not effective it's
00:20:20.160his opinion i guess you objectively just can't do it it literally is impossible to leverage those
00:20:26.360things why do you think politically canada has avoided the the the very canadian products that
00:20:31.080might hurt the americans most potash is difficult i mean you'll increase the prices to the americans
00:20:37.480but what do the americans come back with i mean that's always the problem of the question of the
00:20:41.720size between canada and the us is that if we up the ante to hurt them in a big way then of course
00:20:47.560trump comes back with a bigger stick the other issue with potash which is a little known problem
00:20:52.680is that we do have trouble getting our potash from saskatchewan uh in the amounts we need
00:20:58.040through the rail and the ports of vancouver so increasingly we're shipping it through the rail
00:21:03.640in the united states so what do we do then do we and not just shipping it for americans shipping
00:21:08.760it out to the uh the asian countries out west so sometimes part of the problem when we start
00:21:15.000talking about leverage and and things we could do we get into this raw raw raw thing okay you want
00:21:20.360to cut off electricity in atlantic they'll shut off the line five pipe with those under under
00:21:25.560the great lakes that we've been fighting them on environmental issues to preserve so there's a lot
00:21:30.120of cutting off your nose to spite your face i i i think it's good so far that they haven't played
00:21:35.640those cards because if they do play them i think that the response will be nuclear but um i you
00:21:42.280know that's that's for the government to decide i guess and he's right when you have people like
00:21:47.160doug ford coming out and just saying oh just cut off electricity to new england just just stop0.99
00:21:53.800sending them oil and gas it's like hey idiot the oil and gas goes through from alberta through the0.99
00:22:00.920united states and some of it then pops back into ontario so in fact you would be cutting off your0.96
00:22:07.160own energy that you use to generate electricity that you then sell into new england in places
00:22:14.520like new jersey which is also a really horrific idea let's just cut off their at power well yeah
00:22:21.620let's just see what that what happens to all hospitals and seniors homes if we just cut off
00:22:26.100power to new england but yeah that's not a not a great idea sounds kind of insane to do something
00:22:32.560like that and then with things like potash you just don't do not have the logistic ability to
00:22:38.600go and sell it to other parts of the world in great quantity to replace the american market
00:22:42.700so are we going to do stockpile it just kind of keep it up on the ground and wait until
00:22:46.840they break because the thing is again the american economy is so big that yes they do a lot of trade
00:22:53.020with canada most american states trade mostly with canada in terms of it's their plurality of
00:22:58.980their trade at the same time you know it's just because you know canada is a big country and it
00:23:03.960overlaps and touches a lot of these states and you know we do a lot of raw natural resource
00:23:09.640extraction that they tend to rely on. But the thing is, as much as they rely on us,
00:23:15.260we rely on them more. And the alcohol ban is a great example of how trying to do this sort of
00:23:21.520tit-for-tat game, rather than trying to run a more rhetorical strategy, rather than basically seeing
00:23:28.180what we're willing to sacrifice to get the things we really want, which is low tariff or no tariff
00:23:33.040trade. When we do all this tit-for-tat stuff on alcohol, they can just hit you back with a ban
00:23:38.880And by the way, we send them multiple times more alcoholic products than they sell to us.
00:23:45.220So when we said, hey, you're not allowed sending in any of that California, Napa Valley wine, well, they could say, well, no more Canadian wine, no more Canadian whiskey, no more Canadian beer.
00:23:55.900And by the way, that's like five times the impact on us.
00:23:59.660Not only do we ship more to them, but per capita, it represents a much larger portion of our economy on top of all that.
00:24:07.440I'm going to make an entirely different video on just the bug lights being switched on right after America announced that they'll put in place an alcohol ban.
00:24:16.640Because as soon as that happened, the people who represent the the booze producers in Canada immediately got on the TV and said, hey, guys, this isn't really good.
00:24:24.960This is this is bad. We should we should sign something.
00:24:28.500It's like, oh, my goodness. It's almost like our strategy relied on fighting Trump and hoping hoping he wouldn't swing back.
00:24:35.560And this isn't me saying Trump's in the right. This is me saying, let's be realistic in what we can do and how to get to a win, relatively speaking, for the situation that we are in. You're not going to get the climb down. You're not going to get the Braveheart freedom moment.
00:24:51.860And like Trump dies like the king in his bed somewhere and Mark Carney like releases all of releases and relinquishes all of the tariffs through his cries of elbows up.
00:25:03.620It's not going to happen. So like what Mark Warner is saying, you have to be realistic in terms of what works, what doesn't, how to use your leverage, how to come to a negotiated settlement.
00:25:15.180And by the way, we don't have to trudge through this, like, through this, like, you know, unmapped forest and figure out how we're going to get through this thing. Other countries are already doing it. Mexico, the EU, the UK, Japan, Vietnam, a lot of countries have been signing deals.
00:25:35.260maybe not the deals that we would be signing we have different pressure points we have
00:25:38.940different amount we have a much larger reliance on american trade so we have to be you know play
00:25:43.980a little more hardball than maybe some of the other countries do but eventually you have to
00:25:48.860figure out what you want and what you don't need or what we need and what we don't need because
00:25:55.560that is the sorting that we need to do going into the negotiations so we can get the best deal for0.98
00:26:00.360canadians do we need american trade more than we need to be integrating with the ccp0.98
00:26:05.840heck yes so let's dump the china deal to get a better deal on autos and steel and aluminum1.00
00:26:12.900it's a good idea blanketly but like the thing is carney's too wrapped up and they can't tell us
00:26:20.060what to do what do you think a negotiation is dummy you're telling the other side what to do
00:26:24.960and then you might have to threaten or offer things in order to get some of it anyways with
00:26:30.060all that being said thank you guys for watching this video make sure to like share subscribe
00:26:35.280consider hitting the join button if you want to become a monthly contributing member and I'll see