The Tucker Carlson Show - September 03, 2026


Saagar Enjeti on Who’s Profiting From Trump’s New America of Gambling, OnlyFans, and Drugs


Episode Stats


Length

1 hour and 59 minutes

Words per minute

190.84

Word count

22,854

Sentence count

1,125

Harmful content

Misogyny

26

sentences flagged

Toxicity

45

sentences flagged

Hate speech

44

sentences flagged


Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 A couple of years ago, leaked internal documents from APEC showed that the single largest donor to the organization, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, number one donor, was a man called Leonid Rydvinsky.
00:00:13.900 Rydvinsky was a Ukrainian-born pornographer.
00:00:17.200 He was the owner of OnlyFans, one of the largest porn sites and human exploitation sites in the world, the site that has effectively turned thousands upon thousands of American women into prostitutes.
00:00:29.220 And according to these documents, Radvinsky and his wife had pledged $11 million to AIPAC.
00:00:36.580 Huh. He later denied that, but the documents remain. And you had to ask yourself, and many
00:00:42.300 people did ask themselves at the time, why would someone who runs a pornography site
00:00:47.100 donate this much money to a pro-war organization, a neocon organization like AIPAC? What's the
00:00:53.660 connection between the two. Huh. Then, of course, it was that same year, 2024, that Miriam Adelson
00:01:02.240 became one of the biggest donors to the Trump campaign, hundreds of millions of dollars. Now,
00:01:06.640 Miriam Adelson is not in the pornography business that we know of, but very much the beneficiary of
00:01:11.740 the gambling business. Her late husband was one of the largest proprietors of casinos in the world,
00:01:17.300 Sheldon Adelson. And she became one of the biggest donors and partly because of those
00:01:23.660 donations became one of the driving forces behind our war with Iran and also immensely powerful
00:01:28.920 within this administration. In fact, literally one of the people who picked employees of the
00:01:36.460 Department of Justice, Miriam Adelson, calling up PPO, Presidential Personnel Office at the White
00:01:40.660 House. I want this person at DOJ. Bam, that person gets a job at DOJ. That happened.
00:01:48.020 But again, you have to ask, what is the connection between pornography, in that case,
00:01:54.680 gambling, and neocon politics? You wouldn't have thought there was one, but the connection
00:02:00.360 keeps showing up. Here, for example, is a pretty amazing and telling clip
00:02:04.840 from Ben Shapiro's recent podcast. Watch this.
00:02:07.980 In my opinion, as I said at the time, I thought the MOU was counterproductive, that it signaled weakness, that it actually gave credibility to the Iranian regime.
00:02:16.060 Well, now things are starting to reverse.
00:02:18.160 You have Operation Economic Outcast led by Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent. 0.82
00:02:21.960 The goal is to economically strangle the Islamic Republic.
00:02:24.500 So the odds have been steadily going down about when we will actually have full traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, according to our friends and sponsors over at Kalshi. 0.98
00:02:32.160 But they are rising, actually, rather sharply recently before April 1st, 2027 is now up to 42 percent before July 1st of 2027 is up to 53 percent.
00:02:45.100 Honestly, I think we'll probably get there before that.
00:02:47.500 So that's a pretty amazing clip.
00:02:48.740 here's ben shapiro and if you see the whole show he spends a lot of it as he always does
00:02:53.020 pushing the united states to send more money and well more of our american soldiers and airmen
00:02:59.460 into harm's way fighting israel's war in iran and then he kind of seamlessly moves to a pitch for
00:03:07.160 calci a gambling company with with whom he's a partner apparently not only am i excited about
00:03:13.820 the war, he's effectively saying, you can bet on its outcome. Here, sign up now for Kalshi.
00:03:20.180 So here's Ben Shapiro using his daily lecture on why war is good when it's fought by Americans
00:03:27.540 on behalf of a foreign country to seamlessly pitch a gambling company. If war wasn't good
00:03:36.460 enough, how about some gambling for you? Why not pornography? Why not weed? Here's some
00:03:43.340 prescription drugs. Well, of course, virtually everybody who pushes for wars like the war in
00:03:49.760 Iran or the war in Iraq or toppling the Syrian government or killing the leader of Libya,
00:03:56.900 that group, we call them neoconservatives, almost all of them are on board with all of these other
00:04:05.040 public policy questions, every one of which has the net effect of hurting Americans, weakening
00:04:12.340 people. So what's the connection here? There clearly is one and we're just guessing, but maybe
00:04:18.680 the connection is exploitation. So the idea of the Iran war, like the Iraq war before it, was we use
00:04:26.420 the world's best funded military, backed by the world's most powerful economy, to fight a war on 0.58
00:04:32.900 behalf of another country, a tiny country that can't fight its own wars. In other words, take 0.78
00:04:37.280 the United States and use it for our purposes to achieve something that we can't achieve ourselves.
00:04:44.480 Basically, treat the population of the United States, the 340 million Americans who live here, 0.64
00:04:50.120 like livestock and just use them. And that's really not so different from the attitude that, 0.87
00:04:57.620 I don't know, gets you to buy OnlyFans or promote gambling companies or push legalized weed or
00:05:04.400 prescription drugs on the population. None of those things is good for people. And of course,
00:05:08.300 you know that. You would encourage your own kids to spend all day betting on their phones or smoke
00:05:14.880 more weed. You probably wouldn't want your daughter and OnlyFans, would you? But these
00:05:19.080 aren't your kids. These are other people's kids. These are American kids. And why do you care?
00:05:23.680 Because you can get something out of it. So that's a worldview that most normal people
00:05:29.500 would consider repugnant. That's exploitation. It's cruel. It's awful. It reveals that you think
00:05:35.880 the people from whom you're profiting aren't fully human. You don't care about them.
00:05:39.620 You just want to take something from them. Most people consider that immoral.
00:05:45.720 But increasingly, there's no sanction against it. In fact, you're criticized for pointing it out,
00:05:52.680 but it's so obviously true and you should know that the same people pushing for these wars
00:06:00.100 whose outcome can't possibly benefit you your only role is to go die in their prosecution or
00:06:07.420 pay for it face the consequences long-term bankruptcy destruction of a generation that's
00:06:15.460 your role, the people pushing for those wars don't care about you at all. Because if they did,
00:06:22.680 they certainly wouldn't be steering you to gambling sites or getting your kids to smoke
00:06:27.340 more weed or convincing your daughters to join OnlyFans. So we're just starting to notice this
00:06:33.700 because it's kind of hard to ignore. The president's top donor runs a gambling empire?
00:06:39.680 Ben Shapiro's shilling for gambling? The guy who owns OnlyFans is AIPAC's biggest donor?
00:06:45.460 maybe there's a connection here. Very few people have noted that. But one of them is a man called
00:06:53.320 Sagar Injeti. Now, we know Sagar, actually hired Sagar out of college years ago. And what
00:06:57.580 set Sagar apart was not simply that he was smart, but that he didn't, and this was almost 15 years
00:07:03.700 ago, have any real interest in the partisan system. He thought it was fake back when most of us,
00:07:08.240 very much including me, bought into the idea that this was a war between two parties and
00:07:12.680 differing worldviews. And of course, that wasn't what it was. We learned February 28th that in fact
00:07:19.240 the parties are aligned on the basic questions. And the rest of us are encouraged to argue with
00:07:23.640 the margins to preserve that lie, that this is a real argument when in fact they're colluding
00:07:28.520 against us. Sagar and Jetty realized that many years ago. And so he left conventional journalism
00:07:34.500 and has wound up running something called Breaking Points, which is an excellent show
00:07:38.720 that he co-hosts on all social media platforms.
00:07:42.060 We strongly recommend.
00:07:43.600 But maybe because he doesn't have a conventional worldview,
00:07:47.720 he is one of the only people in all media
00:07:50.780 to point out that actually gambling on your phone,
00:07:56.440 digital gambling,
00:07:57.780 is utterly destructive of people.
00:08:02.020 It's incredibly addictive.
00:08:03.720 The odds are abysmal.
00:08:05.440 In fact, there's almost no chance you can win.
00:08:08.720 And it is growing at a pace that has eclipsed all other forms of entertainment.
00:08:15.100 And one of the reasons Sagar Anjedi has been able to point this out
00:08:17.980 is because he's one of the very few people in media
00:08:19.760 who's not taking money from gambling interests.
00:08:22.460 And we share that with him.
00:08:24.100 We are strongly pro-dog on this show.
00:08:26.880 We make no secret of that.
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00:09:43.960 the other day about the growth of online gambling and what it means for this country and who's
00:09:49.880 promoting it here it is sagar thank you for doing this thank you for having every year this is one
00:09:54.700 of my favorite interviews of the year so i'm grateful that you made the effort to come up here
00:09:57.600 um so i was i'm a little cut off from the question of gambling i think of it as
00:10:03.140 something that takes place in a casino.
00:10:05.860 Craps and blackjack and piegow and whatever.
00:10:11.160 But suddenly it's omnipresent.
00:10:13.380 And I'm wondering if that's good or bad.
00:10:15.860 Well, I think it's very bad.
00:10:16.980 And I'll just set the stage.
00:10:18.060 I wish that we were at the stage where you were at,
00:10:20.120 which by the way, I still think is bad
00:10:21.340 for people to waste a lot of their money on craps, blackjack.
00:10:24.420 But those people would put modern day gambling companies to shame
00:10:28.120 because at the very least,
00:10:29.300 the house edge on those games is very limited.
00:10:31.500 In fact, you can win.
00:10:32.480 It's just you're very unlikely in the long run to do so.
00:10:35.700 The products that are available today for the vast majority of Americans are effectively
00:10:39.880 legalized theft, especially the ones that are being pushed by these gambling companies
00:10:43.780 like FanDuel and DraftKings, where their hold and or 60 percent of their revenue are a type
00:10:48.960 of bet which, again, would put a Las Vegas casino to shame.
00:10:52.220 They're called a single game parlay.
00:10:53.640 But before I even get into all of that, let's zoom out.
00:10:56.740 Gambling as of this year is now the most popular entertainment in America.
00:11:02.480 America is a nation of gamblers.
00:11:05.340 It's the most popular entertainment in America?
00:11:07.740 Not only just the most popular of entertainment,
00:11:10.480 gambling, the total amount that was gambled in the United States,
00:11:14.000 eclipsed all types of other entertainment revenue,
00:11:17.240 movies, books, and others combined.
00:11:19.280 So that is the amount of dollars that we're talking about,
00:11:22.580 hundreds of billions of dollars,
00:11:24.040 in some cases tens of billions of dollars per state.
00:11:26.720 And most of it is targeted to young men specifically,
00:11:30.060 which where we see the data overwhelmingly is depressing not only their savings rates,
00:11:36.820 bankruptcy goes up, domestic violence goes up by nearly 10%, especially whenever there's a home
00:11:42.500 team loss, which has largely been associated with the NFL for quite some time. But when you add
00:11:47.240 dollars into that, it makes the magnitude of the loss of the drinking of the depression
00:11:51.380 and of the anger express itself even more. So there's basically nothing good that has come out
00:11:56.520 of it. There's a argument that comes from many of these states about revenue. But even the revenue
00:12:02.220 argument honestly falls apart. The Ohio governor even said that legalizing sports gambling was a
00:12:07.940 huge mistake, the same governor who legalized it. And he gave us some of the numbers where
00:12:12.580 the amount of revenue that let's say Ohio raised 200, let's say it's 200 million. Well, the amount
00:12:17.720 of associated social costs was roughly equivalent to the same amount of revenue that they took in
00:12:23.060 Gambling has the highest suicide rate of any addiction in the United States.
00:12:27.600 Actually?
00:12:28.040 Yes.
00:12:28.400 Yes, it does.
00:12:29.000 Well, it's one of those addictions where you can operate and hit your rock bottom without
00:12:33.920 actually, well, if you hit your rock bottom as an alcoholic, everybody around you knows.
00:12:37.960 You probably lost your job.
00:12:39.000 Right.
00:12:39.200 There's not ability to maintain that.
00:12:40.780 Same with drug addicts, fentanyl addicts, and any other types of addictions.
00:12:44.420 With gambling specifically, to hit rock bottom, you can gamble your way into a hole and a
00:12:49.620 debt spiral and shame.
00:12:50.880 And it often leads to a point where many of these men just can't face the music, often very tragically leads to suicide.
00:12:57.380 And we see this over and over again. 0.97
00:12:59.540 I don't want to play dumb. 0.84
00:13:00.980 I've actually seen it. 0.87
00:13:02.040 Right.
00:13:02.580 And I quit drinking myself.
00:13:04.760 So if you reach the bottom of alcoholism or drug addiction, you can stop using drugs or alcohol.
00:13:10.480 You reach the bottom of gambling and it's insolvency.
00:13:15.220 It's pretty hard to fight your way out of that.
00:13:16.620 That's right.
00:13:17.160 And it's on your phone.
00:13:18.020 So even, you know, imagine if you could drink out of your phone when you were an alcoholic.
00:13:21.500 That's the equivalent of what we're looking at.
00:13:23.460 This is the most omnipresent environment for gambling in modern history.
00:13:29.280 And just, again, to put some color on the numbers, I have some of my notes in front of me.
00:13:32.820 There's been $500 billion wagered since 2018.
00:13:36.320 In 2025 alone, $166 billion on sports, more than movies, recorded music, live music, books, museums combined of a normal $70 billion.
00:13:45.060 So it's double the amount of revenue for all of those associated other types of entertainment, which I would argue have a lot more of a social net positive. Now, what we see is that there is a 25 to 30 percent increase in states which legalize online gambling. One dollar bet leads to two dollars of less savings. Ten percent point in domestic violence after an NFL upset losses. And that's just the top line.
00:14:08.920 And in terms of how much this is pervading everything, these companies spend billions
00:14:13.520 of dollars a year on the most expensive advertising real estate in the world.
00:14:18.160 And this is all of sports media.
00:14:20.460 So you had ESPN, you have all of these podcasts, which are being paid millions of dollars above
00:14:26.860 market rate simply to promote gambling and to get these people, many of their audience,
00:14:31.560 a lot of these young men hooked into the sport.
00:14:33.820 And I think we can also have a bigger conversation about what it's done for sports generally.
00:14:37.940 you were talking about as an older person you know you may not realize it but if you talk to
00:14:42.460 the young generation i'm talking 12 13 14 years old specifically teenage boys if i asked them
00:14:48.100 before an nfl game what the line on a game was they'll know it they'll even know what the odds
00:14:53.540 of relative prop bets are for some of their favorite players that is a completely new reality
00:14:59.540 that has only emerged just since 2018 since the landmark supreme court decision originally struck
00:15:05.700 down they pretty i think it's paspa was the law which had been passed which allowed nevada to
00:15:11.040 continue sports betting again in a casino but did not allow sports betting wagering nationwide and
00:15:17.080 we can thank chris christie for all of this there's no one worse there's no one more corrupt
00:15:21.880 than chris christie he's just and i mean like on a deep human level corrupt um yeah i mean
00:15:27.680 you said podcasts without getting into it but we were approached by a couple of different
00:15:32.460 gambling companies with real money. I had no idea they were gambling companies. I thought
00:15:37.920 they were polling companies. I mean, I really didn't know. And I mean that. I called someone
00:15:42.220 about it. No, those are gambling companies. Oh, okay. What's the difference between a polling
00:15:46.540 company and a gambling company? Right. Well, this is where it also gets complicated. So all of my
00:15:51.100 criticism right now has been about online sports betting companies, FanDuel, DraftKings, Hard Rock
00:15:56.540 Bet, any of those types of actual wagering. And just to explain the difference, that is a house
00:16:01.760 against you, as in the House of DraftKings sets the line on a specific book for, you know, let's
00:16:09.060 say like a Patriots versus the Eagles, like it just comes to mind. So that's you against the
00:16:13.880 House trying to make sure that you get an edge, hopefully, and you'll win. What you're talking
00:16:18.220 about are these prediction market companies, predominantly in the United States is Calci
00:16:23.820 and Polymarket. And I do want to be fair to them. They are not the same thing. However,
00:16:28.120 operationally, I think they are. So they advertise themselves as event contracts. And so it's a
00:16:34.160 prediction market. So for example, there's two sides of the bet. And so I come in and somebody
00:16:40.960 else is willing to take the other side of that. It's similar, I would say, to horse race betting
00:16:45.100 of terms of the amount of dollars which are inside the pool. And then who's going to take the X 85%
00:16:52.120 chance versus the 15%. And the house gets a set percentage. And they get a set fee that they take 0.65
00:16:57.440 off. And so that's their similar difference, let's say, between the prediction market and the actual
00:17:03.540 gambling company. However, these prediction market companies have a lot of the same problems. So
00:17:08.160 when you were to speak to them, I'm sure that they would talk a lot about derivatives and
00:17:11.980 event contracts. It's all very financialized language. And so they try to present themselves
00:17:16.480 as above what these companies are. But here's the truth. The vast majority of the action which is
00:17:22.800 taken on these platforms, and I use that term specifically because they would say the amount
00:17:26.720 of dollars wait or dollars placed i'm saying action because it is ultimately gambling is all
00:17:32.360 in sports over 80 85 percent of the volume on calcium or poly market is placed on sports you
00:17:37.740 also have the same power law problems where the vast majority of the profit accrues to a very
00:17:42.420 small group of traders known as sharps both in the event uh you know in the prediction market
00:17:46.920 business and or in gambling actual online gambling and i think even by their own data only 25 of the
00:17:54.300 people who play within a month or trade within a month, as they would call it, are even people who
00:17:58.580 win money. And so by your own admission, and by the way, that's actually quite high if you were
00:18:03.340 to wager over a month whenever we're talking about sports betting. This is what I mean by
00:18:06.940 legalized theft. When I step back and you ask me the question, is this good for America? How can
00:18:11.880 it be good for young men to routinely participate in a daily, sometimes more than daily practice
00:18:18.860 of just throwing their money away
00:18:21.140 to either groups of Wall Street traders
00:18:23.560 or large gambling houses based in Europe
00:18:26.300 and the United States
00:18:27.520 to accrue for shareholder value.
00:18:29.300 There is no good that comes from that.
00:18:31.180 I laid out domestic violence,
00:18:32.860 things about the social costs,
00:18:34.300 but bigger picture,
00:18:35.260 and this actually might even be,
00:18:37.540 I talk a lot about sports betting.
00:18:39.000 I do think it's the number one scourge,
00:18:41.060 but the CEO of Kalshi, Tarek Bansur,
00:18:44.300 had said that he envisions a future
00:18:46.440 where people can trade on everything.
00:18:48.860 Think about the social and corrosive cost
00:18:51.620 of what it means for some of the events,
00:18:54.300 contracts which are offered
00:18:55.420 either on Calci or Polymarket.
00:18:57.360 We're talking about flight delays.
00:18:59.260 I mean, can you imagine the perverse incentive
00:19:01.400 of manipulating flight delays and want,
00:19:05.540 you know, they frame it as hedging,
00:19:07.200 saying, well, somebody wanted to do a conference
00:19:09.380 and they wanted to make sure
00:19:10.940 that if the conference got flight delays
00:19:13.640 that they could hedge their bet.
00:19:14.800 They promote the hell out of this.
00:19:16.400 But they don't think about the social cost
00:19:18.280 of what it means to be able to wager literally on everything. You could create a market right now
00:19:22.580 for what you and I are going to say on this platform. By their rules, according to their
00:19:26.940 internal house rules, that would be insider trading if you or I were to wager on that.
00:19:31.700 However, I was at a restaurant yesterday, we both were, and I was speaking to some people
00:19:35.740 or asking me what I was going to talk about. Well, they could have wagered, they could have
00:19:39.320 created a market about what I was going to say with that inside information. There is no regulatory
00:19:44.600 authority to actually go after insider trading at a bigger level. There is for the military,
00:19:50.420 and I can talk about that as well, where large bets specifically on Polymarket for insider
00:19:55.820 information, things like the Maduro raid and others clearly leaked out to a small group of
00:20:00.560 people who then went and placed bets on these markets on whether the United States was going
00:20:04.940 to go capture Maduro. Same whenever it came to the military operations against Iran. There were
00:20:10.360 huge sums of money that were paid out on that. The Trump administration has gone after a few
00:20:15.100 select cases, but those are only the most obvious cases of members of the military. The Israeli
00:20:20.660 military also had to prosecute several of its own soldiers for placing bets on Polymarket for
00:20:25.760 events that they knew they were going to happen because they were participating.
00:20:29.080 Betting on wars.
00:20:30.020 Betting on wars. Yeah, on death. And again, they would push back very heavily. We don't have
00:20:34.000 death markets, but when you have...
00:20:36.640 Well, how is betting on a war, not a death market?
00:20:38.240 Betting on whether the United States is going to bomb Iran is effectively death market. 0.56
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00:21:41.740 After you purchase, feel free to say that you heard about it right here on this show.
00:21:45.300 But let's just even keep it here because that's the most obvious, easy example.
00:21:50.160 The social trust between all of us is broken when everything is tradable and everything
00:21:55.640 becomes a scam.
00:21:57.200 Everything from sports to our flights to in some places, people are betting on the temperature
00:22:05.140 at an airport there was a case recently where people are betting on weather markets and the
00:22:11.780 way that the weather market was decided was off of a single sensor which was at an airport so a man
00:22:18.080 took a bet for an out shot of the how much weather like how the temperature would be
00:22:23.440 on that specific day he went to the sensor and held a hair dryer next to it to cause the sensor
00:22:29.600 to rise so that that would then resolve in his favor i mean these are extreme examples but this
00:22:35.060 is the extent to which people will start to manipulate literal reality just to make money
00:22:39.720 this is the free market capitalism this is the free market capitalism that they've promised us
00:22:43.900 and and makes it so you can't trust anything there was recently a case where uh caroline
00:22:48.640 levitt was holding a press conference one of her press briefings and there was a market that it
00:22:53.780 would go over x amount of time i forget exactly how much time that she would spend at the podium 1.00
00:22:58.500 and she happened to end it seconds before that the majority position was so you could have bet 1.00
00:23:04.460 the under on how long that press conference was going to take place. And you could have paid out,
00:23:09.220 I'd forget the exact dollar, maybe 20 to one. There's also all these insider trading things.
00:23:14.160 So I gave the obvious example that you and I talked about this specific one. I'll give you
00:23:18.360 another one which relates to a vice is marijuana. I don't think like this, but I could have. I'll
00:23:23.640 give you an example. I got a call because this is my job. I do reporting. Somebody called me
00:23:29.960 and said, Trump's going to reschedule marijuana. I was like, wow. So I start working the phones.
00:23:34.940 I start seeing what I can find out about this. I email the White House. At that time, I could
00:23:39.640 have got a 1% chance on either prediction markets, or I could have purchased marijuana stocks
00:23:45.940 because I had inside information. And I actually watched as I started doing my reporting that it
00:23:52.260 started to leak out in broader Washington. And I can see the stock start to rise. I see rumors
00:23:56.900 begin to come out, then the official announcement eventually breaks from some establishment media
00:24:01.460 outlet. The price goes sky high. I personally could have profited literally millions of dollars
00:24:06.360 if I had wanted to. I would never do such a thing. I think that's literally blood money and scumbag
00:24:11.200 behavior. But there's no law that prevents me from doing that. I was doing my job in a routine 0.97
00:24:16.660 basis. I could have made myself extraordinary sums of money. You probably could have done the
00:24:21.640 same thing with all kinds of various things that you've been doing in your line of work. Is it
00:24:26.500 technically insider trading no we're not never even of these exactly because that's our character
00:24:32.560 but how many is character really the constraint through which we should offer the integrity of
00:24:39.060 our financial markets and even worse i see these viral social media claims people will say i'm
00:24:45.920 getting rich betting on what donald trump is going to say you can get various odds of whether trump
00:24:51.560 will say the words low IQ this week of whether Trump will say, which pretty much a lock, I think,
00:24:57.940 if you hold that one, whether he would criticize you, you know, this week. And so, you know,
00:25:03.360 people in the White House, they have relatives, they could call them, the relatives could call
00:25:07.360 another relative, they could easily make a lot of money doing this. I mean, this is about our
00:25:12.480 government. This is about sports. It's about entertainment. But my bigger picture, this is bad
00:25:17.400 for society. There was a recent poll that came out. Go ahead. Well, isn't the reason that sports
00:25:22.420 betting was banned in the first place 100 years ago because it corrupted sports? Exactly. And
00:25:26.900 people started throwing games. Exactly. And, you know, the Major League Baseball itself,
00:25:30.920 the National League and others, were formed specifically to stop the corrosive effects
00:25:36.000 of the game of gambling because they knew that it was a problem. And for over 80 years,
00:25:41.420 these companies held the line. Paul Tagliabue, the NFL commissioner, testified before the U.S.
00:25:46.700 Senate against gambling. David Stern, I think is his name, the NBA commissioner, also testified
00:25:51.640 against gambling. But what ended up happening, this is a very tragic story, is that the English 0.99
00:25:56.260 Premier League, when Britain legalized gambling, and specifically has had long sports gambling
00:26:00.640 for quite some time, their valuations began to skyrocket. And so the capitalist greed of the NBA
00:26:07.740 owners and of the NFL owners and the commissioners, they look across the pond, and they think,
00:26:12.960 how can I accelerate my valuation and the amount of dollars that I can pluck out of America just
00:26:19.060 like they did? Now, you and I, as social critics would say, in what way would we want to emulate
00:26:23.940 the British working class for our working class who have been immiserated and who currently have
00:26:29.180 a GDP, which is less than the state of, GDP is not everything, but less than the state of
00:26:35.000 Mississippi. I could look at Brazil, another horrific example, really ground zero of sports
00:26:40.460 betting, where, you know, in Brazil, they have those cash transfer programs for poor
00:26:45.060 Brazilians, which previously was held up as a major social welfare benefit.
00:26:49.760 Well, more recent data has come out from Brazil.
00:26:52.600 The vast majority of that money is being cycled right back into sports gambling.
00:26:56.440 And so people are getting their cash transfer of the government.
00:26:58.700 They're handing it right over to the gambling companies.
00:27:01.020 They are massively addicted to soccer betting down there specifically.
00:27:04.900 So our NFL commissioner, our MLB commissioner, they looked abroad to the Premier League all at the same time while Chris Christie is advancing his case for New Jersey to have sports betting.
00:27:16.160 All of this came from the Great Recession. Atlantic City was really having a hard time with their revenue in the aftermath of the Great Recession.
00:27:25.720 Chris Christie becomes the governor. Christie decides that he's going to try and have a workaround to allow sports betting in New Jersey specifically.
00:27:33.820 And so I won't take everyone through all the complicated legal minutia. The basics of it are they passed several laws. They took it through various circuit courts, went all the way up to the Supreme Court, five conservative justices, one liberal justice, rules on behalf of the state of New Jersey.
00:27:48.660 And they say that what Congress did by restricting sports betting, specifically only allowing a loophole where Nevada could have it, but nobody else could have it, was unfair to states' rights.
00:28:00.200 This comes at a time, too, when states are revenue-hungry.
00:28:03.940 2018, right into the pandemic.
00:28:06.240 So what happens?
00:28:07.200 The vast majority of these states, I think 42 states now, have legalized sports betting.
00:28:11.400 And what they did is they not only allowed legalized sports betting in the casino, like Nevada always had, is they quickly realized that there were these apps like DraftKings and FanDuel, which had the infrastructure laid out already, which allows you to normalize and create online sports books specifically.
00:28:30.420 And so that's how I gave you that number, 500 billion, half a trillion dollars wagered in this nation since 2018. And it just dispels all of this notion of how, oh, well, I mean, the classic libertarian argument, well, people are always going to sports bet.
00:28:46.040 That's actually BS, in my opinion, because if we look to the current types of bets that
00:28:51.460 people place today, they place the types of bets, which I've talked about, which no bookie
00:28:57.580 or mafia boss would ever offer you.
00:29:00.000 They're talking about offering you, when I open the app, the single game parlay, it would
00:29:04.720 say it's not just whether you win or lose, and it's not even just the spread, plus three
00:29:10.060 and a half, minus three and a half. 0.98
00:29:11.680 It's the spread combined with the quarterback throwing for 200 yards combined with the receiver scoring two touchdowns and they offer you a price bet $10 to win 750 the idiot brain combined with alcohol or marijuana for a lot of these guys sitting on their couches. 0.98
00:29:29.880 let's do it, $10. What they don't realize is that the contingent odds that they just placed 0.98
00:29:36.000 lose money so regularly that the companies can project their revenue based off of that type of
00:29:42.540 bet, the single game parlay bet, so much so that they can project their earnings out into the
00:29:47.120 future. 60% of their revenue comes specifically from that type of bet. So when people tell me
00:29:53.080 America's always been a nation of sports gamblers, that's totally wrong. The type of bets that they
00:29:58.000 were making were usually illegal, you know, backroom types of bets, plus or minus on the spread to the
00:30:05.080 extent that they were ever able to even get these types of parlay bets. It was in person in a Vegas
00:30:10.000 casino, and they would never take the amount of dollars that they're wagering currently at a lot
00:30:15.820 of these places. And one thing I beg for a lot of the listeners, and I've tried to explain this,
00:30:21.200 if you're a younger guy out there and you're doing this for the thrill, I just want you to know,
00:30:25.120 especially with the parlay bets, you will not win. You will not win. It's a mathematical fact
00:30:31.680 if you do this over time. And this brings me to the worst part of the industry. If you do win,
00:30:37.100 they'll ban you. And so I'm sure you know this with blackjack, for example, everybody famously
00:30:42.220 lionizes the people who can count cards. What they don't tell you, if you walk into a Las Vegas
00:30:47.260 casino and you start counting cards, you will be asked to leave the blackjack table within
00:30:53.700 probably 30 minutes to an hour, unless you're really good at it and you're working with a team.
00:30:59.520 How is that legal? You might ask. They have the right to refuse service. And it's because even
00:31:05.020 with the small house edge of blackjack, if you are an advantage player in blackjack, and especially
00:31:10.520 if they allow those advantage players to have unlimited bet size, and they get that 1%, really,
00:31:15.860 that's all it is, counting cards gives you a 1% or so edge, you will eventually beat the house.
00:31:20.300 it's the perfect game is that you can addict people you can effectively legalize theft and
00:31:26.880 if you happen to despite all of this you're able to win money they will simply ask you to not no
00:31:33.340 longer play with them or if they don't ask you to no longer play with them they will limit your bet
00:31:37.940 size so where previously you might have been able to put one thousand two thousand three thousand
00:31:42.360 dollars on a game they'll say sir you're only allowed to bet up to three dollars uh on this on
00:31:47.940 this game. It's an easy way. So you addict the losers and you look for the whales. The vast
00:31:54.840 majority of the profit for these gambling companies comes from a very small group of
00:31:58.560 users, roughly three to 5% of the people make up almost 50% of the revenue. So these are absolute
00:32:04.520 gambling addicts who by law shouldn't even be gambling in the first place. The winners, if
00:32:09.040 you're able to even win in this game, they will ban you. In fact, their algorithms are so
00:32:14.900 sophisticated that if you place the type of bets which look like a winner, a potential winner,
00:32:21.240 before you even win, they will limit your bet size. They will say, we don't want your business
00:32:25.280 or you're only capped to $10 down on a game. So they've created a system where they can addict
00:32:31.660 young men. They can find the potential whales out there, those 3% who are just full-blown addicts.
00:32:38.700 They can shower them with gifts. They call them incessantly. Hey, where have you been? Haven't
00:32:43.800 heard from you. Do you want tickets to the next Patriots game? Do you want free whiskey? Let me
00:32:48.680 fly you out on a private jet from here to here. They shower them with more benefits than you can
00:32:52.900 even believe. Now they think it's for free, but they're paying for it, obviously, with their
00:32:57.400 losses. They do all of this while if you're actually a winner, they'll ban you. And so for
00:33:02.240 the casual better who is doing three to five to eight percent, I just want those people or eight
00:33:06.780 dollars. I want those people to know that is only enabled by these people getting crushed by
00:33:13.160 gambling addiction, throwing their futures away, their lives, their marriages. Home ownership has
00:33:19.180 always been at the center of the American dream. It is an actual asset, a place people work their
00:33:24.120 entire lives to build, a place of stability and security and real value. Right now, though,
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00:33:34.580 survival tax of 20 percent interest or more. So why keep handing your money to the banks when you
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00:34:28.540 I covered the case of a guy,
00:34:31.400 his wife, I think, sued DraftKings.
00:34:33.280 so he had never placed a bet before 2020 he ended up gambling after a few years every dollar that
00:34:40.740 he had every single dollar he bankrupted his children's 401 uh 529 plans his 401k took out
00:34:48.120 multiple mortgages on his house the entire time he was being called and encouraged to gamble by
00:34:54.480 draft kings his host casino host uh who would ask me hey where have you been this week hey i've got
00:34:59.260 a good game for you this is exactly the type of thing you would like to do here's some free whiskey
00:35:02.640 here's some free anything right you know free like concert tickets those types of things they're
00:35:08.360 they're encouraging him despite him showing obvious symptoms of gambling addiction and by
00:35:15.480 their own rules they're supposed to tell him not to do it but of course they don't and in some cases
00:35:19.600 not just this case there have been other cases where they say don't put this in text or they're
00:35:23.640 going to come after me make sure just talk to me on the phone if you're having a problem again this
00:35:28.260 is scum of the earth type of behavior to even participate in this but this is what's been
00:35:33.100 enabled by these laws this is sweeping the nation the largest gambling so what happened to the guy 0.95
00:35:38.180 oh uh he went absolutely bust and his wife who owns draft kings i actually had uh they have a
00:35:43.880 publicly traded company so it's you know fortune 500 is portnoy involved in any of this i which
00:35:49.440 well i don't know if he owns draft kings but i know that barstool has a affiliation with draft
00:35:54.300 Kings. I think that they have a partnership between the two of them. And ESPN does too,
00:35:58.340 promotes all this stuff? ESPN, well, it's a complicated case. They had their own bet,
00:36:02.540 their own actual casino called ESPN Bet, which is ironic because it's a media organization with
00:36:09.540 ESPN Bet that was down literally on the chyron, encouraging people to. I think now they just
00:36:15.040 have an exclusive partnership, I believe with Penn Gaming, which is a large casino conglomerate,
00:36:20.380 which previously owned Barstool Sports. 0.93
00:36:23.760 Oh, it's all so disgusting. 0.94
00:36:25.440 It's horrible.
00:36:26.600 So why is this allowed?
00:36:28.620 Yeah, because-
00:36:29.220 I thought the promise of this administration was
00:36:31.380 the country was going to produce things.
00:36:34.140 Like New Jersey was once a rich state
00:36:35.640 because they made a lot of stuff in New Jersey.
00:36:38.080 Pharmaceutical soup, you know, like tangible-
00:36:40.620 Trenton makes the world takes.
00:36:42.440 Yeah.
00:36:42.700 Thank you.
00:36:43.200 Exactly.
00:36:44.120 I think that sign's still there.
00:36:45.100 It's still there.
00:36:45.660 But it's not true.
00:36:46.480 It's not.
00:36:46.780 So the idea that you're going to fix the state budget hole
00:36:49.840 by just treating your population like livestock.
00:36:53.400 That's not really the answer we were promised, is it?
00:36:55.860 No, it's certainly not.
00:36:56.860 And this administration is the most pro-vice administration
00:37:01.060 in modern American history.
00:37:03.120 So this administration, CFTC,
00:37:06.080 the Commodity Future Trading Commission,
00:37:07.680 has taken a very different line
00:37:09.340 from the Biden administration.
00:37:10.820 They not only are reversed many of the rulings
00:37:14.120 against the Calci's and the poly markets,
00:37:16.340 they not only enable them just to do what they do,
00:37:19.260 which is worse, but there's gradations of worse, they go to extraordinary lengths to defend them
00:37:25.160 in court. Recently, there was a case, let's take New York State. So New York State, Kathy Hochul,
00:37:30.900 the governor, she sued, or her and the attorney general went after Calci because Calci, they said,
00:37:37.760 was illegally operating as a prediction market as a gambling house in their state. The argument
00:37:44.000 that they had was, look, there's federalism. We are a state. We have the right to regulate sports
00:37:51.080 books in the way that we see fit. And by doing that, we charge, I believe it's a 20% excise tax
00:37:56.600 on the amount of trades or revenue or something like that generated within the state. Calci
00:38:01.720 obviously argued against them, although I will say in negotiations previously, they had come to them
00:38:07.060 and had acknowledged some level of regulatory authority. They said, why don't we pay you 6%
00:38:11.500 the way that we do in North Carolina.
00:38:13.580 New York State rejected that,
00:38:14.760 so we don't do carve-outs.
00:38:16.160 We believe you're a gambling company.
00:38:17.640 You need to abide by our gambling laws.
00:38:19.820 The CFTC under Donald Trump
00:38:21.840 issued emergency authority,
00:38:24.900 an emergency release,
00:38:27.560 ordering and telling Calci
00:38:29.260 to please continue operating
00:38:31.300 because they have absolute authority
00:38:33.580 as the federal government
00:38:34.580 over the regulation
00:38:36.040 of these prediction markets.
00:38:37.600 Wait, so the Trump administration
00:38:38.660 described it as an emergency?
00:38:40.140 As an emergency.
00:38:40.580 So many people wouldn't be able to bet enough online?
00:38:42.640 Yes, that's right.
00:38:43.500 Effectively, that's right.
00:38:44.500 I mean, Calci would tell you that they're trading
00:38:45.920 that are there online.
00:38:47.500 But I mean, in my or your estimation,
00:38:50.040 yeah, it's gambling.
00:38:51.260 And so the Trump administration
00:38:52.640 has their CFTC commissioner, Mike Selig,
00:38:56.680 routinely goes and delivers on video press conferences,
00:39:01.960 many with crypto magnates and others.
00:39:04.080 Recently, there was one with Donald Trump, Mike Selig,
00:39:06.500 and one of the Winklevi twins behind him,
00:39:09.040 who himself is a Bitcoiner,
00:39:10.160 with Gemini, where they're giving press conferences and extolling the virtues of
00:39:15.360 prediction markets. I mean, Trump's own son is either on the board or was an advisor with both
00:39:20.200 Calci and with Polymarket. You have a situation now where Calci and Polymarket, Calci specifically,
00:39:26.660 because their regulatory approach is to try and capture, not capture, but work extensively with
00:39:32.040 the federal government to ensure that they're totally legalized. The CFTC commissioner has
00:39:37.140 issued multiple guidances and even written briefs on their behalf in many other state courts and
00:39:42.440 places where they're being sued because many state attorney generals and other believe that
00:39:46.460 they are illegally operating as a gambling house. So that's Trump on gambling. There's no question
00:39:50.820 he has made gambling more prevalent in the United States than any previous president just because of
00:39:56.340 the way prediction markets work. And in fact, I mean, in my opinion, running roughshod over
00:40:01.480 federalism, California and Texas, bless them, they did not have legal gambling before this.
00:40:07.080 But now, because Trump, as the president of the federal government, is protecting these
00:40:12.320 prediction market companies, we now have legalized gambling in all 50 states.
00:40:15.900 And in fact, as I know, both Calci and Polymarket, now they would not want legalized DraftKings
00:40:21.460 or FanDuel in those states so they could be the only option for potential people who want
00:40:26.060 to put action.
00:40:26.980 So in California, it was the Indian tribal casinos that didn't want nationwide or statewide gambling, and they successfully defeated it at a statewide ballot initiative in Texas. 0.94
00:40:37.600 To preserve their own monopoly. 0.92
00:40:38.900 Right, to preserve their own monopoly.
00:40:39.720 I'm not saying it's a good thing, but they still – look, the voters there decided not to legalize it.
00:40:44.160 I get it, but you're not describing any organized force acting on behalf of the public.
00:40:48.660 No, there's maybe the evangelicals in Texas.
00:40:51.620 They're the only reason that we didn't have statewide betting from my own home state.
00:40:56.900 Not that Miss Adelson isn't working overtime to make sure that that's been repealed. 1.00
00:41:03.540 I mean, one of the reasons she bought the Dallas Mavericks and their whole vision for that, as I understand it, was to create kind of this super entertainment gambling complex.
00:41:13.500 Mark Cuban himself even said that before he sold it to her, that the valuation of his franchise doubled because of legalized gambling. So I don't think it takes a genius to see that was part of the long term Adelson plan for my home state of Texas to legalize gambling and to try and to make it part of the fabric of the state, which, to their credit, was one of the last actually willing to stand up with a substantial population.
00:41:36.520 However, of course, Trump has now made prediction markets legalized in the nation.
00:41:40.520 Let's talk about marijuana.
00:41:41.640 So Trump rescheduled marijuana.
00:41:43.940 He did so not after any rigorous review.
00:41:46.620 He did so at the behest of marijuana companies where Schedule I status by the federal government
00:41:52.380 was prohibiting their ability to use the legalized banking system.
00:41:56.180 That was it.
00:41:56.920 There were huge donors in Mar-a-Lago and in Florida, as I understand it, who were constantly
00:42:02.320 complaining to him about their inability to...
00:42:05.760 Because, right, and in these states where there was legalized weed, cannabis, as they
00:42:10.920 call it, they would take these vast amounts of cash, and they had problems on their hands.
00:42:15.780 Many banks would not touch the money because the federal government could technically schedule
00:42:20.380 one, and they saw it was illegal.
00:42:21.660 So there was an entire side banking arrangement that was happening.
00:42:26.360 Conducted in currency.
00:42:27.400 Conducted in hard cash for a lot of these companies.
00:42:29.820 They were having to hire armored guards.
00:42:31.380 It was causing them all kinds of problems.
00:42:33.180 They heavily lobbied the administration to reschedule specific, not for the reasons that
00:42:38.620 Trump came out and said, for studying. We've had plenty of studies on marijuana, specifically
00:42:43.460 medical marijuana. All of them are absolutely false. It saves a lot of lives. It's complete
00:42:47.720 nonsense. There is not one claim for medical marijuana that's held up in scrutiny. You can
00:42:52.900 read that in the New York Times and from some of the most prominent health journals in the United
00:42:56.620 States. But nonetheless, they claim we need more research. That was the justification.
00:43:00.800 That's not the justification.
00:43:01.920 The justification specifically had to do with allowing these companies to have more
00:43:06.920 access to the legitimate banking system.
00:43:08.980 And so the venture capitalists and the stocks, remember I told you earlier about that story
00:43:13.140 about how I could have made money.
00:43:14.460 There's an entire ETF and others that track marijuana companies, which exploded post
00:43:19.800 rescheduling.
00:43:21.320 So that tells you the story.
00:43:22.680 And it made people very, very wealthy who are very connected to Donald Trump.
00:43:27.060 We're into gold.
00:43:27.680 We've been into gold for a long time.
00:43:29.200 that turned out to be pretty smart, not to brag or anything. We've told you a lot about gold,
00:43:34.260 how it's outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 25 years. That's true. How the central banks
00:43:39.880 around the world have been buying it at record levels as they diversify away from U.S. debt.
00:43:46.100 That's all true. But there's another reason to consider buying physical gold, actual gold. And
00:43:52.160 that reason, of course, is privacy. Your bank and credit card company record every transaction.
00:43:59.100 Cryptocurrency, whatever its benefits, leaves a permanent public record.
00:44:04.380 It's on the ledger.
00:44:05.980 There are stories about how government tracks cash, literally cash.
00:44:10.600 Because remember when they switched to the new bills?
00:44:12.960 Well, they're trackable.
00:44:15.020 So gold is probably the only store of value that can even conceivably remain private.
00:44:22.060 It's outside the system built to monitor and control you.
00:44:24.940 And that's one of the reasons that we found in Battalion.
00:44:27.400 to help Americans reclaim sovereignty and privacy,
00:44:32.020 which is to say reclaim freedom,
00:44:34.000 by making it simple and secure and accessible
00:44:36.800 to own physical gold.
00:44:39.780 So with all the drama around the world
00:44:41.540 and all of that drama affects the strength of the US dollar,
00:44:44.300 which is getting weaker,
00:44:45.960 gold help protects your savings.
00:44:49.180 And the surveillance state, of course,
00:44:50.320 getting stronger every day,
00:44:52.260 that's what the data centers are about.
00:44:53.900 Probably like a little bit of privacy,
00:44:55.780 gold gives you privacy.
00:44:57.400 They can't be tracked.
00:44:59.220 Explore our collection at battalionmetals.com slash Tucker.
00:45:03.860 Did it improve the country at all?
00:45:05.600 You can ask.
00:45:06.760 I'm in this state.
00:45:08.360 I'm shocked the amount of cannabis stores everywhere.
00:45:11.500 Downtown Portland, cannabis everywhere.
00:45:14.640 You smell it everywhere.
00:45:16.080 You'll be in the rural parts of this state.
00:45:17.780 We're here in Maine.
00:45:18.560 I see a brand new cannabis dispensary next to a rotting home.
00:45:24.020 So you can tell me whether you think that's been an improvement.
00:45:26.600 is lowered. IQ talks about young men, the number of people who drive while they're under the
00:45:31.440 influence of marijuana skyrocketed. Lower testosterone increases the schizophrenia rate.
00:45:36.140 It's been a true disaster. It has been a, it is probably when one, aside from gambling,
00:45:40.420 the single most biggest disasters to hit our population. Oh, and by the way, daily marijuana
00:45:44.680 use now outnumbers daily alcohol use. Not that alcohol is good, but now you're using a force
00:45:49.620 which massively increases the amount of people who go schizophrenic, mental illness, testosterone,
00:45:55.580 Pregnant women use is dramatically up because a lot of these false health claims that people make.
00:46:01.440 Doctors are not caught up. 0.74
00:46:03.380 There's actually a teenage specific affliction where if they smoke too much high-potency marijuana, they end up vomiting for days and it gets stored in their fat sales.
00:46:14.600 They literally had to create an entire new term for that type of affliction because it's spread across ERs.
00:46:20.420 Ask any ER doctor in America.
00:46:22.180 They'll know exactly what I'm talking about.
00:46:23.800 So Trump has been a boon to the marijuana.
00:46:25.580 industry. But pornography doesn't get covered nearly as much as well. And in my opinion,
00:46:30.240 pornography. Yeah. And so I talked to you about this a little bit before the Treasury Department.
00:46:35.580 So conservatives were rightfully very upset about debanking under the Biden administration or
00:46:39.820 debanking concerns broadly. For ideological reasons. For ideological reasons, which is fair.
00:46:44.220 And nobody should lose their bank account. The Treasury Department issued a report on debanking
00:46:48.560 in which they specifically said banks should not discriminate against these vice industries. And
00:46:54.820 one of them that they named was pornography. And so the Trump administration issued a guidance to
00:47:00.460 the nation's banks that they should do their best to facilitate banking for pornography companies 0.89
00:47:06.540 and for other women, let's say, and OnlyFans and others who previously had had trouble getting 1.00
00:47:12.220 access to the legitimate banking system. Now, why, you might ask? Do you think banks- 0.99
00:47:17.020 Wait a second. So when people voted for Trump in the hope that he would end debanking,
00:47:20.540 they probably weren't thinking, I hope OnlyFans can find a more efficient way to transfer its
00:47:24.800 funds exactly right and that's what's happened uh and we've seen that now so it's sort of like you
00:47:29.340 vote for trump to do something about immigration but the only people get deported are those who
00:47:32.720 criticize netanyahu right yeah it's an it's interesting kind of how so they subverted the
00:47:36.900 idea subverted the idea by the way you want to know who's buying only fans uh you can look into
00:47:41.200 this is that the people who are buying a majority stake in only fans which was run by a ukrainian
00:47:46.860 billionaire who we knew nothing about turned out to be a major apac donor by the way uh he recently
00:47:52.640 died in Florida. Well, it turns out that he's selling to a Silicon Valley operation, which I
00:47:58.700 didn't know a ton about, but one of the co-founders there was part of the tech team on Clearview AI,
00:48:05.220 which is the facial recognition software. And so now a majority stake in OnlyFans is being acquired
00:48:10.560 by somebody who previously worked over at Clearview AI, which is facial recognition software,
00:48:16.400 which is used by the federal government and by a lot of other spy agents.
00:48:20.180 Why would you allow OnlyFans in your country? 0.99
00:48:22.320 Yeah, that's a great question.
00:48:24.040 But why not just arrest the owners?
00:48:25.920 Arrest the owners.
00:48:27.620 And, you know, I try not to even take the maximalist position
00:48:31.180 because I see how far gone we are here.
00:48:33.840 Can we at least say,
00:48:35.460 let's enforce our human trafficking laws in this country? 0.99
00:48:37.720 Because that's why the banks didn't want anything to do 0.99
00:48:41.160 with the pornography companies or OnlyFans
00:48:42.960 is because they were deeply afraid, rightfully,
00:48:45.460 of the amount of human trafficking and exploitation
00:48:47.640 that happens in the pornography industry.
00:48:50.480 That is a bedrock to it.
00:48:52.200 Everybody knows, and I've listened
00:48:54.440 and unfortunately heard the testimony
00:48:56.000 of so many men and women
00:48:57.620 who were involved in that industry.
00:48:59.540 None of it, none of it is from a place
00:49:01.580 of entrepreneurialism or capitalism.
00:49:05.280 It's all deep from a place of exploitation
00:49:08.440 of being used by these broader systems.
00:49:10.820 And if anything, it is shocking to the conscience
00:49:13.840 that a woman who's 18 or 19,
00:49:15.640 who sees her only chance of being able to make money,
00:49:19.420 buy a house, or achieve financial success 0.97
00:49:21.380 is to sell nude images of herself to perverts online 0.71
00:49:24.640 who are three, four, five times her age. 0.84
00:49:27.080 That's something that the federal government,
00:49:28.820 I think, in my opinion, should want
00:49:30.260 at the very least to make sure
00:49:31.740 they're not being human. 0.98
00:49:32.800 If some Ukrainian billionaire 1.00
00:49:34.160 is turning our women into prostitutes, 1.00
00:49:35.820 maybe we should do something about it. 0.99
00:49:37.460 Isn't that why we have a military?
00:49:38.620 That's exactly why. 1.00
00:49:39.600 That's why we have a justice system.
00:49:41.060 And say when we talk about the gambling,
00:49:43.640 Like, how can you argue with a straight face that normalizing, because even if we take
00:49:48.140 Calci and Polymarket, which are these, again, they're on Wall Street, these people are the
00:49:52.040 darling of Wall Street, everybody loves them in New York, in New York City, they're offering
00:49:57.600 all kinds of liquidity for trading on Federal Reserve, on the Federal Reserve, and whether
00:50:02.640 they're going to hike rates on the futures of Bitcoin, on all of these complicated derivatives,
00:50:07.160 which you and I will never understand until there's another financial crash.
00:50:10.720 So they're the darlings of the hedge fund, Wall Street, and all these other industries.
00:50:14.740 But how could you say that when 80% of the volume is sports, and most of it is people who are customers, who by their own admission, 25% or so, are the ones who are taking profit, how can you say it's a good thing?
00:50:26.320 Why would you want to encourage the daily participation, weekly even, participation of placing wagers on events which were primarily known and wanted to be known as non-gambling entertainment?
00:50:42.520 Maybe because it's not so different from the equities markets.
00:50:44.920 Yes, exactly.
00:50:45.340 Maybe the red pill here is that it's like, of course Wall Street loves them because Wall Street already does this.
00:50:51.500 Exactly.
00:50:51.740 It's the same thing.
00:50:52.380 But, you know, to zoom out from that, and this is where I get frustrated because Calci's argument wants to make the argument that if they were to say things are corrupt, they would say the equities markets are just as corrupt.
00:51:01.060 I would say, yes, but, all right, the average American can still largely just put their money in the S&P 500 and get an 8% to 10% return over the long run.
00:51:10.840 They're much better off doing that than they are trading on Calci.
00:51:13.600 Oh, I forgot one thing with the Trump administration.
00:51:15.100 They lowered the bar for day trading.
00:51:17.420 So previously, there was a regulation that you needed to have $25,000 of liquidity to engage as a day trader.
00:51:25.040 And the Trump administration removed that.
00:51:27.400 And so by removing that threshold, obviously, it's supposedly sold as a populist move.
00:51:32.100 It's like everybody should have the right to day trade.
00:51:34.500 Over 80% of people—
00:51:35.500 Day trade?
00:51:35.820 Day trade.
00:51:36.320 Over 80% of people who day trade lose money.
00:51:38.620 It's a statistical fact.
00:51:39.060 I wonder how many Fox News viewers—well, I'll speak for myself.
00:51:41.720 I campaigned for Trump.
00:51:42.520 I didn't think Trump's election results in more gambling, drugs, and pornography.
00:51:47.060 feed. That kind of wasn't on the menu that I remember. It certainly was. It was on the donor
00:51:50.280 menu, though. And every one of the donors, especially marijuana, I can link that directly
00:51:55.960 back to Mar-a-Lago and to Florida. With the CFTC, it's largely venture capital and a lot of the
00:52:01.400 other, and it's libertarians. I should be fair. There are a lot of libertarians and other things
00:52:05.200 that support these on their face, the wisdom of crowds and how great they are at predicting
00:52:10.260 various types of events. Isn't that lynching? Right, exactly. Especially, and come on.
00:52:16.480 they shut up at a certain point like it's just too stupid i can't feel with it it's foolish in 0.99
00:52:20.740 the sense of what social utility again what social utility do we have on gambling on everything 0.99
00:52:27.560 there is none it would be funny to have you know there were all those horrifying pictures of
00:52:32.960 lynching in the south and i know it was more complicated than the images suggest right
00:52:36.680 some of the people really were rapists and i get it but we still have to oppose lynching like you
00:52:41.220 need a justice system right okay so yeah but these kind of wild-eyed crazy people and the
00:52:45.980 guy swinging from the tree and then underneath it says the wisdom of crowds or the bolshevik
00:52:50.300 mobs exactly we can find all kinds of cross ideological examples yeah i mean wow okay
00:52:57.840 has this received coverage very little and you know why because the news organizations are in
00:53:03.400 bed with these same companies cnn has a deal with calci they use calci odds on their network um
00:53:09.280 there are multiple major news organizations which have incorporate their actual odds into their
00:53:15.220 coverage. And a famous example of more recently was Harry Enten, the stats guy over at CNN,
00:53:21.960 covering the Calci odds of a specific race. Francesca Hong, I believe, he said she had a
00:53:26.660 95% chance to win. She lost the election. But the coverage was not just polls. And by the way,
00:53:34.400 a sophisticated news consumer, even a casual news consumer, has a general feeling polls are wrong
00:53:39.480 all the time. We've just lived through too much to know that. But an event market, a prediction
00:53:44.480 market well those they were right in 2024 right they predicted donald trump would win so a 95
00:53:50.540 chance of that that's a sure thing well it wasn't a sure thing because she lost and there have been
00:53:55.420 multiple of these primaries okay so that's what kept me away from the predictions markets at you
00:53:59.680 know as a sponsor for this show i didn't even get the gambling part of it because i'm obviously too
00:54:05.020 stupid to see the whole picture but i do understand like my little slice of the world and i thought
00:54:09.360 this seems like an intel inflected thing like it it feel it felt to me on the base of no evidence 0.99
00:54:15.900 at all but just my instinct told me these are companies that are not simply reflecting back
00:54:21.720 the public's opinion but trying to shape the public's opinion oh well i mean you're making
00:54:25.800 a great argument in that point i just feel that well because in that case let's say well actually
00:54:30.300 we recently had a case where i believe it was in california a polling company put out a poll which
00:54:35.620 I think I forget which candidate it said was leading by 12 points. It comes out months later.
00:54:41.660 It was the polling company admits, quote, it was a social experiment to see how much our poll
00:54:47.820 would get coverage. Well, exactly. And so now how much did that one poll have influence
00:54:52.920 on Calci or the prediction market? Probably very little. But in the aggregate, all of these
00:54:58.440 polling companies, their error to the extent there's an error, which you again, you and I know
00:55:02.600 that, there's no money riding on it, but we have a feeling many of these polls often understate or
00:55:06.980 overstate the way things are going, they then get extrapolated to the nth degree and financialized
00:55:13.220 in these prediction markets, where the liquidity trading in these can be hundreds of thousands,
00:55:17.360 millions of dollars, depending on the race, hundreds of millions in the case of the presidency.
00:55:21.860 So in these cases, the actions of certain polls, let's say the Seltzer poll, we famously remember
00:55:26.520 that before the Donald Trump election, which was so dramatically off despite her reputation,
00:55:31.460 is it so outside the bounds of possibility to say was that an event meant to manipulate a market
00:55:38.400 now i don't think that actually to be the case but there isn't a lot of law that would prevent 0.98
00:55:42.780 her necessarily from doing that as long as uh things are covered or you know their ass is 1.00
00:55:47.360 covered in a certain way and then take it even deeper with foreign governments or others that
00:55:52.500 may want to influence a certain type of event here in the united states who might buy a large
00:55:57.600 position on one of these prediction markets to, again, generate the news coverage that it deserves
00:56:02.680 because these aren't taken as fact when they are not fact at all. Again, to be fair to Calci,
00:56:08.180 they recently did a meta study. They sent me their data where they said when there's a 5%
00:56:13.240 chance of happening, it usually happens 5%. If there's a 90% chance of happening,
00:56:17.160 there usually is 90%. They're trying to prove that they are predictive. My problem with that
00:56:22.160 is their sample size, especially it's taken elections. You and I know the vast majority
00:56:26.780 of primaries are not contested. And the winner is clear. The data would only be useful to me
00:56:32.040 in an actual contested primary. And in many of these contested primaries, totally wrong.
00:56:37.080 They were wrong with Angie Nixon. They were wrong with Francesca Hong. They were wrong with
00:56:41.060 Abdel Syed. They had Abdel Syed winning dramatically more than he actually ended up 0.86
00:56:45.520 winning his election by. Francesca Hong, they had her 95% chance. She lost. Angie Nixon,
00:56:50.780 who beat her opponent by like 10 points or something, they had as a dramatic underdog.
00:56:55.280 And so when it actually mattered, again, in this case, where you had an event where you would have looked to these prediction markets for information that you wouldn't be able to gleam from polls or from other open source material, it didn't end up mattering.
00:57:09.680 And so that in the contested primary, and these things haven't even been around that
00:57:14.180 long, what's their actual track record?
00:57:16.080 Because right now it just seems like a casual election better goes on the RCP average, sees
00:57:21.820 Francesca Hong.
00:57:23.400 There's even a meme where they say, oh, look, guys, they're selling dollars for 95 cents 0.99
00:57:28.520 because shit at 95% chance of winning. 0.98
00:57:31.200 And so easy 5% pop, you put 500 bucks in it. 0.99
00:57:35.260 Not a lot to some people, a lot to most people.
00:57:37.840 and next thing you know, you lose all of it.
00:57:40.200 And that story has compounded on sports, on elections,
00:57:44.720 on what color dildo will be thrown on the WNBA court,
00:57:51.700 on the color of Gatorade,
00:57:54.540 which will be poured on a coach
00:57:56.280 after they win the Super Bowl.
00:57:58.920 I could go on forever.
00:58:00.360 All of it's nonproductive though.
00:58:01.560 Nothing is being created.
00:58:03.000 Nothing is being created, 1.00
00:58:04.160 except the youngest female billionaire
00:58:06.220 as one of the founders of Cal Sheep.
00:58:08.260 So we can just thank God for that.
00:58:10.620 Just an entrepreneurial MIT grad.
00:58:13.160 Entrepreneurial.
00:58:14.380 How is it entrepreneurial to find new ways
00:58:16.680 to exploit desperate people?
00:58:18.380 Exactly.
00:58:19.460 Or offer liquidity to financial houses
00:58:22.100 so they can bet up and down on federal reserve markets.
00:58:24.660 It just seems predatory.
00:58:25.680 So why would young men participate in this
00:58:29.460 when some of them presumably are smart enough
00:58:31.820 to know the odds, but they do it anyway?
00:58:33.500 I would dispute that
00:58:34.640 because unfortunately they don't know.
00:58:35.800 i mean we just have too much data they don't know the odds and they're bombarded by advertising but
00:58:40.080 a lot of it is everyone can understand there's actually i did a lot of research into this i go
00:58:44.120 why is so i don't have the gene i don't have the gene um you know i i'm capable playing craps is
00:58:49.620 fun and winning is fun but i can easily walk away after losing 25 and say i'm done but yeah so what
00:58:55.520 is it so it's actually fascinating our dopamine rewards risk when you get the reward you get
00:59:01.040 serotonin, which brings you down. So the risk, the action itself, and there's a famous line
00:59:06.220 from heat for, for me, the action is the juice. That's actually true, especially when you're a
00:59:10.620 high testosterone male. Well, what it means is that gambling is a derivative of our chase of
00:59:17.860 dopamine and of risk. And specifically the reason why we are rewarded with dopamine for risk is
00:59:24.100 hunting. And so you'll understand this as a hunter, the vast majority of hunting is extraordinary
00:59:28.600 boredom and using your mind to, and most of the times it doesn't work unless you're deeply
00:59:33.760 familiar with the terrain, especially when we're talking about non-rifle hunting or any,
00:59:37.840 it's an incredibly difficult task. You can ask anybody who does it. Well, what nature needed
00:59:43.440 to reward you. And so you needed to go out there, fair for yourself, probably burn more calories
00:59:48.680 than you were going to get. It's a totally irrational thing when you actually think about
00:59:51.880 it, but it only makes sense if there is the payoff at the end. Gambling is touch is basically
00:59:57.480 hijacking the dopamine and the nervous system, which we developed to become hunters so that we
01:00:03.920 could go out and provide food for our families, for our clan to be able to feed our child. But
01:00:09.160 in modernity with the grocery store and all of that removed, that nervous system, our biology
01:00:14.420 has not cut up to that. And there's a specific subset of our population, just like there is with
01:00:19.460 alcohol or marijuana, where that dopamine or even drugs, anybody, you know, I don't think I could
01:00:25.280 ever be addicted to drugs i just don't have that type of gene but i know a lot of people who do
01:00:29.600 they're not i'm not better than them or worse it's there's a scale whenever it comes to human
01:00:34.080 biology there's a specific subset of our population where that rush is the greatest thing in the world
01:00:40.440 yes and if you've seen them if you've ever been to a casino when you see those wide-eyed guys
01:00:45.820 you notice they don't feel when they win they feel when they lose it's when they lose that
01:00:53.240 they finally feel alive. Because to be alive for them was the moments in which they thought they
01:00:58.800 would win, they have to come back to the crash, and then they have to chase again. Because if
01:01:03.880 they won, then they wouldn't be able to get the same chase, because they would actually get the
01:01:08.280 reward, which they think that they're seeking. But what they don't realize is they're seeking
01:01:12.100 the drug itself. And when you normalize this, like I said, across hundreds of millions of people,
01:01:17.980 you hijack the biology, largely, of a lot of young men who are rushed full of testosterone,
01:01:22.420 traditionally would be the hunters. That's really where it all seems to come down to.
01:01:26.200 This is why I talked previously about, I mean, pornography, it's the same thing, right? It's the
01:01:30.060 same artificial construction, hijacking of the dopamine and the nervous system, which is intended
01:01:35.600 for you to be able to procreate. Whenever we talk about day trading is a very similar thing. It's
01:01:40.880 easy ways to get riches, but ultimately it's about risk. And so what gambling does, it hijacks that
01:01:47.580 and it takes somebody in the prime of their life where they could have used that risk and that
01:01:52.340 appetite for dopamine if it wasn't legal to at the very least participate maybe in something more
01:01:57.240 sociable because what did I just say about everything with gambling they do it on the phone
01:02:01.340 is that you know even with alcohol you have to go out and you have to buy alcohol you have to
01:02:05.380 you have to at the very least you have to speak to the clerk who's selling you the booze or the
01:02:11.000 bartender even marijuana you have to go and buy it from a store all of this can be done in total
01:02:17.240 solitude on your phone. And actually, I read a book, Danny Funt, who wrote this incredible book,
01:02:23.440 well-reported book on gambling. He said that sometimes they would go, FanDuel, or one of
01:02:28.860 these companies would survey their customers and said, would you recommend this product to a friend?
01:02:33.880 Their best customers said no. No. Because they wouldn't want their friends to participate,
01:02:39.620 or they're ashamed, or they don't have any friends. They just do it by themselves. It's the
01:02:44.100 only rush that they have. And I've seen it bleed now in our society. We see male loneliness,
01:02:50.100 obviously, is an epidemic. But the other thing I hate about gambling is that it has replaced
01:02:54.680 the common parlance of sports talk with all men. When you talk sports with my generation of men
01:03:01.100 and younger, it's very little to do with whether a team is good. It's about how much you've bet
01:03:05.740 on the games. If you go to a bar, you can go to any sports bar in the middle of football season,
01:03:10.300 Sit next to a guy, almost certainly, if he's there by himself,
01:03:14.240 he's got money riding on the game.
01:03:15.580 And probably on both sides of the ball in terms of this down.
01:03:18.920 I was at a football game where I saw a man severely intoxicated in front of me
01:03:23.660 tell his son to place $100 that the Eagles were going to score on this specific down.
01:03:31.280 He said on this drive.
01:03:32.340 So his son goes on.
01:03:33.780 They immediately, they don't score.
01:03:35.820 I saw him lose that $100 right in front of me.
01:03:39.280 okay, it's 100 bucks, he can afford the seats, probably fine.
01:03:42.480 But multiply this at scale.
01:03:44.880 And that's ultimately is the rush that people are chasing
01:03:48.260 is all being channeled by our government,
01:03:51.640 by our capitalist oligarchic elites into sinful activity.
01:03:55.620 So you said a minute ago that there are people,
01:03:58.120 libertarians, you described them,
01:03:59.720 who argue that it happens anyway.
01:04:03.720 So is there any acknowledgement
01:04:04.960 that if you make something easier, you'll get more of it?
01:04:07.960 They say that you should tax and regulate it, and that eventually that it will normalize
01:04:12.500 over time.
01:04:13.540 There's no evidence.
01:04:14.520 What does that mean, normalize?
01:04:15.240 That, oh, people will, right now we're just in the Wild West days of gambling, and we'll
01:04:19.820 figure out the regulations, and we'll figure out more safeguards, and in the long run we'll
01:04:24.080 be better off because there's no more illegal gambling, even though there is still a lot
01:04:27.840 of illegal gambling, because they can sometimes offer different things or customer service
01:04:32.320 that the illegal gambling companies do.
01:04:34.600 They said the same thing with marijuana.
01:04:35.900 Nope, illegal marijuana market is still booming
01:04:38.440 because they sell it under the price of tax.
01:04:40.900 And none of the tax revenue has even come close
01:04:43.940 to making up the social costs
01:04:45.520 that have been inflicted on all of us 1.00
01:04:47.140 for having a dumber population. 0.97
01:04:48.280 When did more tax revenue become the goal? 0.99
01:04:49.920 Right, I mean, this is what happens whenever-
01:04:51.760 Like what?
01:04:52.100 Yeah.
01:04:52.980 Who cares about your tax revenue?
01:04:54.660 And even tax revenue bastardizes it
01:04:57.080 because they look at it.
01:04:59.100 I mean, I said it earlier,
01:05:00.900 we secularized America has decided that freedom
01:05:04.680 means freedom to sin. For the vast majority of human history, specifically under Abrahamic
01:05:10.280 faiths, freedom was freedom from sin. And so the changing of freedom from sin, freedom is freedom
01:05:17.500 from sin, from freedom is freedom to sin, was one of the great social changes and understandings in
01:05:23.560 modern American history. And that is what is now being reflected in all of our values.
01:05:28.680 people, indebted people, addicted people, compulsive people are not free. They're enslaved.
01:05:34.020 Right. You and I understand that.
01:05:35.820 Well, that just seems so obvious. Do you know any? I know a lot of them. They're all enslaved.
01:05:39.020 I know a lot of them too. They are literally enslaved to the credit card companies, to the
01:05:42.500 banks, to the gambling companies, which help them go bust, to the mortgage lender, to their job,
01:05:47.940 to their boss, to the system which they work in. But that's because you and I have empathy for
01:05:51.660 them. Whereas the libertarian argument, the non-personal argument would be they're an idiot. 1.00
01:05:57.180 a man is free to do with his money. 1.00
01:05:59.000 A fool and his money are gonna part anyway, 0.98
01:06:02.020 so we might as well allow that transaction 1.00
01:06:04.740 to take place out in the open.
01:06:06.420 And profit from it.
01:06:07.100 And profit from it. 0.98
01:06:09.200 Do young people understand
01:06:11.460 that they are being farmed for resources?
01:06:14.140 People see it, but they don't have the language.
01:06:16.780 That's one of the reasons I'm really happy
01:06:17.980 that we're doing this.
01:06:18.820 So there was a recent Gen Z poll that came out
01:06:21.860 that a lot of people are discussing.
01:06:23.240 The lowest level of institutional trust
01:06:25.280 of any generation in modern American history.
01:06:28.060 Usually doesn't set things up for a productive century.
01:06:31.440 But I think the reason that they feel that way
01:06:33.900 is that they are at the mercy of the student loan companies,
01:06:37.400 the banks, they were locked down during COVID,
01:06:40.380 they're bombarded with predatory scam advertising,
01:06:43.980 with AI promises, which they may take their job.
01:06:47.320 So of course that they're deeply untrusting of institute,
01:06:51.440 of a government where a decent portion of young men
01:06:54.400 vote for donald trump i would say having met most of them a lot anti-war was one of the major
01:06:59.540 reasons of course why they did so and then they launched one of the most extraordinary you know
01:07:04.480 dastardly acts in modern history sneak attack iran undercover of negotiations twice actually
01:07:10.860 that we did that our own version of pearl harbor which we all understood was the ultimate betrayal
01:07:15.400 and so that's who we are now and so for them i think they can sense this level and there is
01:07:21.800 polling actually coming out where you can see that the actual support for legalized sports betting
01:07:28.000 is beginning to dip right along with marijuana is that now that we've run the experiment people
01:07:32.800 are getting to come down but what i'm saying i want to acknowledge at the top it is not popular
01:07:38.300 and we have to look for past social revolutions to see where the change come came from it's 0.83
01:07:44.180 actually from women so the reason why prohibition happened was because women had got the right to 1.00
01:07:50.000 vote. And they were living in a nation where people were drinking like a liter of whiskey a 1.00
01:07:55.160 day. And these women were getting, you know, absolutely beaten up almost every single night 1.00
01:08:01.140 or left destitute with their children in the poor houses, left at the mercy of literal charity 1.00
01:08:07.360 organizations. Literally, the first thing they did when they got the right to vote was to outlaw
01:08:11.340 alcohol and the temperance movement. The temperance movement, again, I know it's controversial. I
01:08:14.880 think one of the most righteous movements in American history. I think it was the same year,
01:08:17.940 Universal Suffrage and the Volstead Act, both 1919.
01:08:20.460 Both 1919.
01:08:21.420 Great show, Boardwalk Empire,
01:08:22.940 actually shows that exact meeting.
01:08:24.840 Yeah, it shows the politician of Steve Buscemi
01:08:27.500 meeting with the Women's Temperance League,
01:08:29.600 despite the fact that he is himself involved in bootlegging.
01:08:32.940 But it made the point that many of these women,
01:08:35.960 the first thing that they did with the vote 0.95
01:08:37.840 was to support politicians who supported prohibition.
01:08:41.020 And the reason why is very similar
01:08:42.920 to the gambling and marijuana and to pornography
01:08:45.320 is they were the primary victims
01:08:47.380 They were being left with a population who was deracinated, who was drunk, who was beating them, very much like the domestic violence case that I just pointed out.
01:08:56.120 I mean, imagine being in a position where you're such a slave to your addiction that you're losing your home and you're selling your children's Christmas gifts, which has happened in that case.
01:09:05.700 Another more recent case in Philadelphia, very similar circumstances.
01:09:09.780 I have somewhat of a connection to this one where what happened is, is he, I believe he
01:09:14.920 took two mortgages out on his home, gambled away tens of millions of dollars, uh, ended
01:09:20.140 up, it appears was a, what happened is, is that he was gambling with FanDuel.
01:09:26.600 FanDuel actually got him a personalized video from Bryce Harper, who is a player for the
01:09:32.440 Philadelphia Phillies.
01:09:33.500 And in that video, Bryce, in a video with the FanDuel logo on it, tells him, hey man, I just wanted to reach out and say, happy Thanksgiving. Your host from FanDuel just wanted me to make this video for you. It turns out she went on Cameo and purchased that video for her client here over at FanDuel.
01:09:56.140 he denies that he knew that it was for gambling purposes and even though he says your host from
01:10:01.700 FanDuel is involved he makes hundreds of millions of dollars by the way and as a Mormon uh actually
01:10:06.220 uh and so it's one of those where look I mean maybe I believe him that he didn't know that
01:10:11.560 it was involved even though it said the word FanDuel uh in the script that he was read and he
01:10:16.380 did read on camera nobody just blink nobody who's worth hundreds of millions just says
01:10:22.020 I'm not going to do this one. I'm not going to do this video. But those are the lengths to which
01:10:26.340 they'll keep you gambling. And by the way, he lost everything. He lost his house, second mortgage,
01:10:29.960 et cetera, tens of millions of dollars. I think he can gamble to $18 million.
01:10:33.740 Are any politicians against this?
01:10:35.940 Well, Mike DeWine, I'll give him credit. He said, I legalized it and it was a mistake.
01:10:40.420 And he published some of the statistics. That's pretty much it. I can't think of a single
01:10:47.780 nationwide politician and it's because of the money i mean even in our industry tucker what i'm
01:10:52.960 saying is so rare most of my colleagues are taking money from calci or for poly market actually yes
01:10:58.260 absolutely a lot of them are taking money or have been sponsored by poly market or they don't want
01:11:03.660 to close off the potential revenue source my friends in the sports podcasting industry i can
01:11:08.580 think of one guy i know who doesn't take money from the gambling companies they're really flooding
01:11:13.280 them with tens of it's tens of millions of dollars it's they they find themselves in a
01:11:18.620 position it's the only financially viable way for them to do what they want to do i get it right i
01:11:23.720 blame the politicians i i wish it wasn't this way but they are showering them with so much cash that
01:11:29.340 it's only people who are willing to say stand up and say i won't take your blood money who are the
01:11:35.320 people who will come out and speak about that and that's part of the reason i wanted to do this show
01:11:39.100 and talk about it in these stark terms
01:11:41.520 is what, at the very least,
01:11:43.560 if we're to be confronted with the secular government
01:11:45.860 who will do nothing to protect our children,
01:11:48.140 our young men, and the women,
01:11:50.020 that can we at least start a cultural revolution of shame?
01:11:53.660 There should be shame for smoking marijuana
01:11:56.820 every single day, for gambling away
01:11:58.760 your children's inheritance.
01:12:00.160 I feel sorry for that person
01:12:01.260 in terms of him being a gambling addict.
01:12:03.380 I would actually support funding recovery programs
01:12:06.340 and all that, but I don't want him
01:12:08.180 to get to that place in the first place and if you see a person who's gambling who you're friends
01:12:13.480 with there should be we should have the social space to say hey man that's bad you shouldn't do
01:12:19.140 that and you're throwing your people who are money profiting from it no that's yeah they're there i
01:12:24.460 mean that's what blows my mind it's not you know not that people destroy themselves um it's that
01:12:32.320 other people get rich from their destruction and those people still have their names on the
01:12:37.020 buildings at Harvard I don't understand that Harvard they become multi I told
01:12:41.040 you you become a president you make a billion dollars in office how can you
01:12:45.060 make money in office I take trades every I meant tens of thousands of trades that
01:12:49.140 Trump has placed while he was in office his you know obviously net worth
01:12:52.800 skyrocketed the Trump coin I mean my god the details on that are shocking
01:12:58.140 genuinely in terms of some of them you mean it wasn't a good deal for the
01:13:02.220 investors right with for the ordinary people who are his most devoted fans who
01:13:05.940 put their hard earned money. That's what gets me is that money is not everything. And the chasing
01:13:10.760 of it after a certain point, in my opinion, makes you evil. And so when I see these hard earned
01:13:20.380 people and I've met some of them who are either his biggest fans or, you know, and they put their
01:13:26.160 trust in the name of Trump, and this doesn't just apply to Trump, but it's, it's really just
01:13:30.080 generally when they put their hard earned dollars into this and then they end up losing their 0.99
01:13:35.320 savings, that's just the height of scumbag behavior. And that's not just Donald Trump. 0.98
01:13:41.420 That applies to podcasters and other people in tech who promote SPACs and other sketchy
01:13:46.980 financial instruments and that tells their audience to invest. And they betray the trust
01:13:52.300 of those people. I'll just say in their defense, it is a minefield because I have almost taken
01:13:58.140 money from all kinds of bad people. And I just didn't, you know, gold companies, prediction
01:14:03.040 markets crypto scams like i i get it i'm not an i would never took money from any of them but i
01:14:10.580 came pretty close a couple of times like hey this seems like a good deal right yeah you have to do
01:14:15.060 your research and that's where the public the lack of public reporting that's what is i think
01:14:19.780 the worst part is and look i'll say there are a few places which still do good journalism the
01:14:23.780 wall street journal financial times have done great deep dives into prediction markets they
01:14:27.500 have more bulletproof business models because finance relies on them so they're able to charge
01:14:31.700 higher subscription fees. A lot of the cable companies are in bed with the prediction market
01:14:35.940 companies. They're using their odds. A lot of election coverage come midterm season. You will
01:14:42.380 see Calci and Polymarket odds featured very prominently in the coverage. It's going to be
01:14:47.020 embedded in our daily life. And what's so crazy is this wasn't even the norm 10 years ago. It only
01:14:53.480 became legal 2019, really 2018, 2019 onward. And now we're living in this already, in my opinion,
01:15:01.040 dystopian society where gambling eclipses all other revenue. I cannot even imagine what 10
01:15:07.640 years from now is going to look like. We're going to look like the late 1900s in the same way of
01:15:12.580 temperance. We'll have paupers. We'll have poor houses. We will have literal shelters for people, 0.72
01:15:18.460 for the women or children of gambling addicts if the community doesn't step up. That's the future 1.00
01:15:23.780 we've created. Gambling Anonymous has reported an absolute skyrocket in the number of calls.
01:15:28.560 um congress won't even pass a piece of legislation for a national exclusion where if you put yourself
01:15:35.400 on the exclusion list in one state that it applies to states elsewhere so if you live on the border
01:15:40.380 of a state even though you've excluded yourself from one place you get the itch you could drive
01:15:43.860 across the state lines calci only recently introduced self-exclusion but there are workarounds
01:15:49.140 that are around that there is no regulatory body looking out for the consumer for trying to
01:15:54.820 Exclusion exclusion is like a gambling gun safe
01:15:56.940 where you just keep it out of your own hands or something?
01:15:59.140 You can go into the sports bet and say,
01:16:00.960 I want to self-exclude.
01:16:02.160 Don't allow me to bet.
01:16:03.980 And I think there's actually a way to reverse that
01:16:06.440 sometime in the future,
01:16:07.620 but at the very least on that day,
01:16:09.200 they won't allow you.
01:16:10.360 Any casino in America will do the same thing.
01:16:12.640 If you tell the casino,
01:16:14.040 if you tell MGM,
01:16:14.960 I don't want to be allowed on any of your properties,
01:16:17.180 they will exclude you and they won't take your action.
01:16:19.460 But obviously there's still workarounds.
01:16:21.640 You can go to other properties, et cetera.
01:16:23.180 But Congress, the government, they're happy to work on behalf of the prediction market companies.
01:16:28.800 Nobody looks out for the consumer for trying to at least marginally protect potential gambling addicts, which we all know will massively increase as a result of this epidemic, which is now sweeping the nation.
01:16:40.720 I think this is opioids.
01:16:42.020 It might be worse, honestly, because opioids at least takes you down very, very quickly.
01:16:46.140 The insidiousness of this, it's compounding on every day.
01:16:50.920 but already in the data we know tens of thousands more people will likely commit suicide as a result
01:16:57.160 of this epidemic. Tens of millions will have lost money, or hundreds of millions will have lost
01:17:02.340 money. Tens of millions, potentially millions, will go broke, completely broke, or on the verge
01:17:07.140 of bankruptcy. And it's all voluntary on behalf of the people who run our country.
01:17:11.480 So obviously there's going to be a revolution of some kind. I hope it's peaceful.
01:17:15.580 What's it going to look like politically as a result of this and all the trends you described?
01:17:19.780 Yeah, I think the lack of institutional trust is very similar to what we saw. I hope it's peaceful, too. I'm hoping we look to our cousins in the United Kingdom for an aristocratic elite. I'm not talking about in the current moment, at their time of mass social change, where they voluntarily, yes, kicking and screaming, ended up giving up power, giving more of the vote to the people to avoid violent revolution.
01:17:46.240 They had an aristocracy and a bourgeoisie, which fundamentally understood that they had to address the actual, the concerns of the people and of the driving social change, that they would have to voluntarily give up some of their power, some of their wealth, their hold over the establishment, in order to keep what they really wanted to protect, which was their monarchy and their social status.
01:18:07.480 And it worked, to their credit. Well, we'll look across the continent to all of the other monarchies, which didn't survive the First World War and many of the other revolutions, which ended up sweeping them. I don't think we're there, but if we were to look at what I laid out, mass institutional distrust, a period now of multiple presidents, Trump being one of the most egregious, but of multiple presidents saying one thing and doing the opposite whenever they come into office.
01:18:36.600 I'm going to end the war. How many times have I heard that one? Only to end up right now where we
01:18:41.700 are. Now you have Trump, who is effectively sacrificing the might and the prestige of the
01:18:46.540 American empire for his foolhardy decision to go and to attack Iran. I heard about economic D-Day
01:18:51.960 today. I could only wish that it had the level of seriousness and intellect behind the original 0.98
01:18:57.220 planning of D-Day, who were real men. You could say a lot about them, but they were real men.
01:19:01.320 They thought about things. They didn't just throw out terms like economic D-Day in the most
01:19:06.200 sophisticated financial campaign are sanctions of all time. When are we really going to do
01:19:11.120 secondary sanctions on China and blow up our relationship with the largest, second largest
01:19:15.760 economy on earth? Xi Jinping is flying to our country. I don't think so. And if we do, it would
01:19:19.860 be even more extremely foolhardy. It's foolhardy in both cases. You have sanction-proofed economies.
01:19:24.880 But so you have this disastrous war, very much like the First World War, which can ignite more
01:19:29.760 social change and revolution. We're obviously not there yet. Tens of millions of people are not
01:19:33.560 dying. But every American who is consuming anything remotely about this war is watching,
01:19:39.300 again, the destruction of our bases, of the inability to feed, clothe, and keep sane the
01:19:46.280 people on the USS Abraham Lincoln, where stories have to come out of them literally jumping off
01:19:51.460 the ship from their distraught relatives for us to even actually do anything about it. We're
01:19:56.800 watching our ships have to be resupplied from Diego Garcia, except for the region, because our
01:20:02.580 bases were destroyed. I didn't even think that could happen. I'm one of the ultimate pessimists
01:20:06.560 about the American empire before going into this war. If you had told me Iran's ballistic missiles
01:20:10.780 and drones will kill 18, I believe, Americans, injure, I believe the latest number is over 700,
01:20:18.500 that we will be driven like dogs from the region, have to resupply our carriers from 2,400 kilometers
01:20:26.140 away, I would not have believed. If you told me that we were going to expend the vast majority
01:20:31.940 of our THAAD interceptors and our Patriot missiles,
01:20:35.160 which are the technologically advanced spear
01:20:37.900 of the American defense systems,
01:20:40.000 and that we were to do it all on behalf of Israel
01:20:42.580 while leading real countries like South Korea and Japan
01:20:44.900 in the lurch, I would not have believed that.
01:20:47.660 And yet we did all of that.
01:20:48.900 We did it only in a span of six months.
01:20:50.760 So congratulations to Donald Trump.
01:20:53.420 But more so, you asked me about revolution.
01:20:55.700 So I watched that happen.
01:20:57.180 I watched the expenditure of all this.
01:20:58.740 What is the Trump administration's response?
01:21:00.080 double down economic d-day 1.5 trillion for the military the military technology the same
01:21:05.800 technology which we just delivered massive strategic loss over the strait of hormuz so
01:21:11.080 you see that there's no learning in the state you have multiple instances of politicians who say i'm
01:21:16.800 going to do one thing and the other everything in america like you just said is a scam everything
01:21:21.660 is about extracting more value from you the consumer than creating value for your daily life
01:21:29.280 This is what backstops, I think, a lot of the data center backlash.
01:21:32.960 You talked about Flock.
01:21:33.780 There was a great episode that you guys did.
01:21:35.920 But what it comes down to is we can't enrich you.
01:21:39.740 We can't make you richer, so we have to oppress you. 0.98
01:21:42.440 And we also have to take your money and spend it on even more foolish adventure.
01:21:46.680 All of the ingredients are there, if you want to look,
01:21:49.600 for everything ranging from a minor revolution to a major revolution.
01:21:55.180 You and I know many people think, despite what the Soviets said,
01:21:58.600 a working class revolution. It was a bourgeoisie revolution. I mean, it always is. Take a look at
01:22:04.640 our, our elites versus elites, right? Elites, elites versus elites is the classic story of
01:22:09.680 every revolution. Our current elite is either literally morally bankrupt, trying to extract
01:22:17.020 people through gambling and marijuana, pornography, everything I just discussed here, or there are
01:22:22.740 people who have been failed by the institutional promises of the 2000s, saddled with student debt,
01:22:29.580 put into a situation where they can't get married and have a child, can't buy a house,
01:22:34.040 have no upward mobility, total lack of distrust and failure by the system, which was never
01:22:40.840 necessarily going to deliver for the bottom quintile, but was at the very least supposed
01:22:44.800 to make life decent or better for the 50th to the 90th percentile. Right now in the U.S.,
01:22:49.920 If you're in the 50th to 75th, your quality of life has gone down as a result, not just of Donald Trump's war, not just because of gambling, but because of all of the institutional measure used to oppress you.
01:23:04.540 And so that is the group I pay the most attention to.
01:23:07.440 And that group is angrier than they've ever been, dramatically liberal.
01:23:11.860 They're behind a lot of these DSA wins that have been sweeping the nation in terms of the Democratic Party.
01:23:17.680 and you can see highly educated people who are downwardly mobile are the two ingredients along
01:23:24.920 with mass institutional distrust exactly are the exact ingredients oh and a unpopular foreign war
01:23:30.480 which is bankrupting the empire world war one does anybody want to pick up a history book and i hope
01:23:36.760 it doesn't get there i i desperately know but unemployed non-profit executives are the most
01:23:40.940 dangerous people underemployed lawyers people like that white college educated people whose
01:23:45.580 dreams have been shattered man those are scary people yeah and smart motivated angry resentful
01:23:51.380 they've been betrayed yeah yes i mean that those are the backbone of the russian revolution the
01:23:57.280 backbone of the german revolution yeah i mean and that's exactly what led to the outcomes in
01:24:01.740 those two countries or to the destruction or rewriting of the general rules of society
01:24:06.700 i was recently the french revolution i just read a fascinating book uh several series of books
01:24:11.660 there on the French Revolution and the extent to which there's something inspiring and terrifying.
01:24:16.000 And this is kind of what I think we're going to begin to see in the United States
01:24:18.880 is at the beginning of the French Revolution, there was just a sense of why should we do it
01:24:23.340 that way at all? The old way. Let's just do something brand new, inspiring. And you can
01:24:29.220 actually see how easily that message could catch on in a society like ours. But what they didn't
01:24:34.560 realize is that by doing the brand new of opening Pandora's box is it would lead to the terrors to
01:24:40.720 napoleon to the destruction beheading nuns beheadings of nuns of the persecution of every
01:24:46.100 institution in all of your society that's what it leads to and it has happened now so many times
01:24:52.440 over the course of the last several hundred years that i could see a very similar situation i could
01:24:57.900 too and it's interesting we spend so much time thinking about you know stalin's crimes hitler's
01:25:04.120 crimes robespierre's crimes and so little time thinking about the predicate like how'd they get
01:25:09.700 there. How did a society like, you know, 18th century France was pretty sophisticated, pretty
01:25:14.560 rich country with all the liberal society. That's the thing that strikes you. This was not an
01:25:18.580 oppressive regime, not to cape for the French monarchy, but it was not one of the most, you
01:25:25.960 know, authoritarian and oppressive societies. And in fact, one of the critiques that later on many
01:25:32.020 of the other monarchies of Europe took away was we need to be much more oppressive because the
01:25:36.620 libertine french allowed this modicum of speech of pamphleteers of openness in their society and
01:25:43.000 look what it got louis the 16th no it's totally it's totally right nicholas ii was not you know
01:25:49.400 he was like pretty liberal pro-western right spoke french at home guy yeah exactly and i mean he was
01:25:55.480 a fool in oh of course but yeah it does it seems like those are the periods worth studying the
01:26:02.120 pre-revolutionary period i totally agree and you can't find a good book on weimar i've never been 0.83
01:26:06.460 able to find a single i heard there's a good one coming out but there should be a hundred of them
01:26:10.180 like okay we spent your entire childhood learning about the nazis it's the only thing that ever
01:26:15.040 happened in history along with the civil rights movement okay i'm totally anti-nazi i get it
01:26:18.640 how'd they get the nazis in an election no one wants to talk about that what is the answer i'm
01:26:24.440 not even sure i understand the answer and then they reduce it down to just the depression which
01:26:28.180 is ridiculous it's not just the depression it's like you know there's all these social forces
01:26:33.140 both from actually Weimar, very similar to what I talked about, the French Revolution idea of we
01:26:38.040 could try anything. So you saw that the sexual absolute insanity, very similar to how things
01:26:43.540 were happening in France, in pre-revolutionary France, the same. It's fascinating how you could
01:26:47.540 always see the same types of things that are happening, similar in some ways to a lot of the
01:26:52.340 gender dynamics currently here in the United States. And I don't want to take it too far.
01:26:56.660 We don't have brown shirts currently on our streets. We're not in a Great Depression. You 0.98
01:27:00.900 mentioned the russian revolution so my historical parallel would be okay it's not 1917 what if it's
01:27:06.120 1904 what if it's the russo-japanese war what if it is the war that previously broke
01:27:11.920 institutional trust and showed the brittleness and created the crackdown it's smart 10 years later
01:27:19.220 it explodes they were so shocked to lose that war they were stunned the world was i know i know by
01:27:24.780 that and that that is our equivalent i think of what we have watched here people try to extrapolate
01:27:29.240 too much of the most extreme, Suez or that. But you have to pick some of these side wars,
01:27:33.900 which at the time were monumental in their understanding of geopolitics.
01:27:38.880 It's totally right. So what happens in the midterms more imminently?
01:27:43.500 Right. Well, if we were to believe the polls, actually, let's take the polls aside. Let's
01:27:47.380 just look at structure. The incumbent president almost always loses ground in the midterm
01:27:53.280 elections. America is a nation of the median voter who loves a Republican president and a
01:27:58.480 democratic senate for some reason that's or vice versa this is baked into our political consciousness
01:28:03.620 so normally you would always expect to see some sort of a backlash against the trump administration
01:28:09.180 as they actually enact what they wanted to similar happened in 2018 okay so that's normal times we are
01:28:16.200 not living in normal times we're living in times of four dollar gasoline for the last six months
01:28:20.980 uh by the way nobody's paying attention to diesel open call everybody please pay attention
01:28:25.180 $117 a barrel this morning?
01:28:27.040 I think it might be more.
01:28:28.160 Well, it might be more in a different marketplace.
01:28:30.360 But it's $5.69 a gallon national average.
01:28:33.040 It was $3.50 or so just a year ago.
01:28:36.280 So the inflation that's happened in diesel is dramatic compared to what's happened in gasoline.
01:28:40.160 Do we really need diesel?
01:28:41.400 Oh, yeah.
01:28:41.880 It turns out that we do.
01:28:42.880 It turns out it literally runs all of our industrial machinery, our grocery prices, everything has diesel price baked into it.
01:28:50.040 So we've had six months of, and I'm sure you know working people like I do, who run, let's say, work in trucking, and I've spoken with a few.
01:28:57.880 Diesel is destroying.
01:28:58.880 The price is destroying them, or they're having to pass it on.
01:29:03.080 So that's just on the gas front.
01:29:05.120 On inflation generally, we have seen that the Trump administration, specifically foolhardy actions in Iran, have bled into some of the more inflationary data.
01:29:14.040 We have seen mortgage rates, which, again, are impacted by this foolhardy decision in Iran.
01:29:19.880 I believe they're hovering around 6.7%, something like that, for the average American, if they were to try and get a normal 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. 0.99
01:29:27.860 If they were to do so, they would be entering a home market where if you were to look at the median wage and what it's required to be able to save for a down payment of 20% to avoid PMI or any of these other things that set people back, you would need to save for literally like a decade just to be able to get just the down payment and the ability to sustain the income on two-parent household if you were to actually be able to afford it.
01:29:57.320 so extraordinarily expensive housing market. You're met also with, let's see, in terms of
01:30:03.700 the midterms, the way that the Trump administration acted even before all of what happened with Iran
01:30:10.860 was in such a manner where they didn't really act as if they needed to convince the public
01:30:16.500 of anything, of anything that they did. They did a decent job enough in the campaign
01:30:21.300 of getting a popular vote of their victory, but they turned around, and to the extent they did
01:30:26.680 anything for their, quote, voters or their promises. They did it in such a fashion as to
01:30:31.780 ignite major public debate, which is fine in a campaign. But when it comes to policy, if you
01:30:36.900 don't do it exactly correctly, you will get torn apart with the press, which is a lot of what
01:30:41.700 happened. But that was side by side with some of the most corrupt actions that we've ever seen
01:30:45.920 from a White House. And we're not just talking about Trump personally enriching himself to the
01:30:51.040 tune of billions, but nobody even knows from his own financial disclosure. We're talking about the
01:30:56.800 basic sale of pardons, right, that have happened, where all of these pardons for the Trump issues
01:31:02.880 to these corrupt Ponzi schemers and others who then go on to victimize other people, all of it
01:31:08.860 basically done for his either for donor pressure or largely just because he likes feeling powerful
01:31:14.980 by letting people, specifically rich people, off the hook.
01:31:18.140 And then Israel hovers over all of that 0.61
01:31:21.520 because a proud nation cannot serve another nation. 0.94
01:31:25.780 And this is left and right,
01:31:27.300 is that everybody feels this way.
01:31:29.120 And specifically for a decent portion of our population
01:31:32.520 to watch us go into this war,
01:31:35.700 to deport people for their opinions on Israel,
01:31:39.300 to have the Department of Justice sue campuses
01:31:43.000 and others for their opinions on Israel.
01:31:46.280 I mean, I said this on our show last time. 0.96
01:31:48.540 It's even more true today.
01:31:50.160 Everything the Trump administration
01:31:51.280 has done on anti-Semitism 0.96
01:31:52.500 was Ibrahim X. Kendi's dream
01:31:54.460 when it came to anti-racism.
01:31:56.200 The Department of Anti-Semitism
01:31:57.400 might as well exist
01:31:58.420 for what Ibrahim X. Kendi will do.
01:31:59.840 It's the entire government.
01:32:00.820 It is our whole government,
01:32:02.040 from our military,
01:32:03.500 the infusion now of the NDAA,
01:32:05.320 of our Congress.
01:32:06.640 I was amazed recently, Rick Scott.
01:32:09.940 Israel attacked Turkey in Syria,
01:32:12.180 a NATO ally, which we're told is the most important thing in the world. Rick Scott backs 0.69
01:32:17.460 Israel. I was like, wow. Same people who will tell you about how NATO's a religion to them. 0.98
01:32:22.660 Rick Scott is so disgraceful. He's really disgraceful. One of his constituents was 0.96
01:32:27.600 murdered in the occupied territories in the West Bank by a group of terrorists. And Rick Scott
01:32:34.540 refused to meet with the parents who run an ice cream shop in a Smashburger place in Tampa.
01:32:39.700 and he wouldn't meet with them because their son an american citizen born in the united states
01:32:45.160 had been murdered by israelis and so rick scott took the side of the israelis
01:32:48.320 how can he serve in the senate how can our ambassador who you interviewed i don't understand
01:32:53.520 foreign country over our own i think so who would vote for that who would vote for that also yeah
01:32:58.280 if i were to ask you not me midterms i'll tell you that if you ask me about the midterms republican
01:33:02.180 vision what's their vision for the country what are you going to do about my home price nothing
01:33:05.920 What are you going to do about my gas prices?
01:33:10.260 Increase them.
01:33:11.340 Tell me short-term pain for long-term gain.
01:33:14.640 They said that six months ago.
01:33:15.980 It's been six months.
01:33:17.260 What are you going to do to create a better future for my child,
01:33:22.440 who ultimately that's all I actually care about.
01:33:24.320 I don't even really care about myself anymore. 0.77
01:33:26.820 Oh, we're going to create a den of sin and gambling and marijuana and pornography.
01:33:34.180 it's like that's the the types of industries which we're going to elevate if i voted republican in
01:33:40.280 the midterm what are they going to pass my health care premium went up 30 are you going to do
01:33:46.940 anything about that when did they become liberals like everything i dislike about liberals the you
01:33:52.560 know neoconservative foreign policy the identity politics at home the promotion of like the
01:33:59.660 destruction of people, drugs, pornography, crime. That's the Republican Party. Where's the DSA in
01:34:07.120 all this stuff? Yeah, well, that's fascinating. I mean, you know, DSA is going through,
01:34:11.780 they're a fascinating group. So for example, everything you just laid out is probably the
01:34:17.240 position and the same articulation that the DSA co-chairs, the people in New York City who Fox
01:34:22.440 News likes to bring on and to argue with. The candidates themselves are very interesting. And
01:34:28.020 you can either say this is insidious or not, but they are learning. And I do at the very least have
01:34:32.960 to admire their ability to shapeshift from where they were not that long ago. Abdul El-Sayed,
01:34:38.640 who's running in Michigan against Mike Rogers, who, as you and I know, probably the most pro
01:34:43.160 intel neocon. They couldn't find anybody else to run in Michigan for the United States, who by the
01:34:48.480 way, lost already. Why are they running him again? Anybody want to tell me that? Mike Rogers is
01:34:54.260 really uh i wouldn't vote for mike rogers at gunpoint right and so that's the candidate the
01:35:00.540 guy a literal loser who lost when donald trump won the state just to show you how much of a
01:35:05.860 headwind he had at his back he's basically a tool of israel in the intel agencies right how would
01:35:09.960 you run someone like that i don't even it doesn't even make sense so that makes no sense well el
01:35:14.680 sayed who look el sayed is a full-blown ds he doesn't call himself dsa he's a full-blown leftist
01:35:20.060 I've known him for quite a long time.
01:35:22.000 You know him personally?
01:35:23.180 Not well.
01:35:24.060 I've interviewed him many times over the years because of my co-host, Crystal.
01:35:26.820 And so I've watched his ideological evolution, who you could easily call, as AOC said, was
01:35:32.120 quote, woke one, right?
01:35:34.000 Woke one, where he said defund the police on a podcast.
01:35:36.680 He said all kinds of silly things about football and masculine, standard leftist shibboleth. 0.70
01:35:41.880 Yeah, hates Mackinac Island. 0.90
01:35:43.400 He's for vaccine mandates.
01:35:45.100 Right.
01:35:45.640 Classic stuff.
01:35:46.500 Right.
01:35:46.740 I watch his campaign now.
01:35:48.800 It's America first. 0.87
01:35:50.060 the amount of times he says he doesn't even when he talks about israel he says israel is committing
01:35:54.920 a genocide but ultimately i want to make sure that you don't pay more for health care i don't 0.58
01:36:00.180 want your tax dollars going abroad to fund this barbaric military he stands in front of a giant
01:36:05.060 american flag it's almost trumpian in terms of a lot of literally trumpian exactly and so you see
01:36:11.500 candidates like that especially him he will be the most interesting test case come november is he
01:36:15.560 going to win if i if i had to bet uh which i don't i would probably bet that he'll win i would think
01:36:21.800 so i think so too do you have any idea not to fix it on poor mike rogers who i know but i mean
01:36:26.860 there's no one who should be farther from a position of power than mike rogers how did he
01:36:31.780 get the republican nomination for senate i looked into it it was relatively uncontested he had uh
01:36:37.740 both he had the most backing of the michigan gop which is of course very in touch uh with their own
01:36:43.320 voters like rogers so they just decided to go with and again this is the guy who lost to slotkin
01:36:50.220 when donald trump was able to win the state and so they can cry about vote rigging and all that
01:36:56.100 as we want okay whatever but we all know that this is not a strong candidate in a wave year
01:37:02.420 which just happened and they decided to nominate him literally yet again genuinely he was the
01:37:07.460 apac candidate to be clear and he's told apac not to advertise in public forum right and do you see
01:37:12.300 That's where I was saying with El-Sayed, his ability to go up against AIPAC and to win.
01:37:17.380 If you're a DSA person, that's got to be one of the most inspiring wins of your entire life.
01:37:21.820 That's way bigger than Zoran Mamdani.
01:37:23.740 They got to get rid of the social liberalism if they get rid of that, because that's where
01:37:27.960 the world is.
01:37:28.780 Most people are not orthodox free market people.
01:37:32.320 They just want the economy to serve their families.
01:37:35.240 I think that's fair.
01:37:36.460 They want to be treated fairly.
01:37:37.820 I don't think there's anything wrong with that at all.
01:37:39.500 And they're not for radical social change.
01:37:41.260 they think that there are two genders and each has a distinct role and like it's not good to
01:37:46.780 sexualize children and drugs are bad and kind of want law and order i mean these are not crazy
01:37:51.800 right-wing goals no that's what we would call the socially roughly speaking socially conservative 0.97
01:37:56.160 view and that's the majority view around the freaking world yes everyone feels that way yes
01:38:02.380 so why can't we have a party that feels that way well i mean that's where we have to say
01:38:06.480 we have to just be honest here with the dsa like at the very least they're not willing to have that
01:38:10.300 conversation they're not they are because it's run by rich girls is that why i mean part of it
01:38:14.460 is that but part of it is deeply look they are a they were a small movement with very little
01:38:19.800 backing as of eight years ago and they are now a major force within the democratic party they're
01:38:25.420 not in the dominant yet because the establishment of the democratic party hates them largely over
01:38:30.440 israel but over all kinds of other uh campaign issues that the health care let's be fair over
01:38:35.720 one of them but they are a very they are the prototype prototype of the upwardly mobile
01:38:42.000 white or downwardly mobile highly educated largely white female or male yeah that's what they are
01:38:49.240 yeah and you and i having spent a lot of time around these people these people are largely
01:38:53.500 delusional whenever it comes to the actual social views of the vast majority of the public
01:38:58.040 their theory of change is that trump is so bad and has so destroyed the credibility of working
01:39:04.820 class messaging, that we will emphasize what we have here in our America First platform whenever
01:39:10.500 it comes to Israel, healthcare for all, which is their belief. We're going to not talk about
01:39:15.680 our radical social views, but they still have them. El Syed is on tape saying that Medicare
01:39:20.560 for all should pay for gender affirming surgery. Okay. He's on tape for saying that. So I don't 0.65
01:39:25.020 want to sit here and claim he is a conservative or just like sensible. I mean, I don't know if
01:39:31.320 But if you're telling me abortion is awesome, you're a freak. 0.99
01:39:35.240 You're a freak if you think it's awesome. 0.91
01:39:37.300 Maybe you think it should be legal in some cases or whatever, 1.00
01:39:39.460 but if you're celebrating abortion, you're evil.
01:39:43.540 Can't we just have a normal person run for some office at some point? 0.96
01:39:46.900 I agree, and that's why I do want to be –
01:39:48.720 and there are some within the DSA who actually very, very much disagree
01:39:52.460 with some of the tactics of the woke 1.0, like AOC herself.
01:39:57.600 Many of them saw her as a much weaker person.
01:39:59.680 I mean, look, you can see Zoran Mamdani. I have a lot of disagreements with Zoran, especially going in to the campaign. But you can't deny that the guy has kind of embodied their vision. The current DSA, at least the people I speak to, Crystal specifically and Ryan, their vision, I know for that is like the sewer socialist model, which is very much how Zoran is trying to govern the city of New York is he does. He uses extraordinary popularity and charisma.
01:40:27.280 he focuses heavily on quality of life issues he does use his political capital on social issues
01:40:34.360 which he feels are very important to him let's say like transgender day of visibility but he
01:40:38.460 doesn't make it the main component of his overall governance on law and order he capitulated
01:40:44.320 completely he reappointed jessica tish there has been at the very least now currently no actual
01:40:50.820 defunding of the police he's largely worked he apologized to nypd for saying he should defund
01:40:55.680 the police so he retreated dramatically he's a pragmatist ultimately whenever it came to that
01:40:59.800 at least rhetorically and from what we've seen how's the crime rate in new and so well actually
01:41:03.440 i mean let's be fair new york has one of the lower actual crime rates in major american cities
01:41:08.460 if you were to pick one of new york or san francisco i'm choosing new york every single day
01:41:13.360 yeah and he's also focused let's say on new garbage containers in neighborhoods to make sure that
01:41:18.880 there's not trash on the street he put a video out this morning about uh rebuilding the bqe which
01:41:24.880 is a disaster if you and i have been on i'll say you know again as a guy who has deep deep
01:41:30.880 disagreements with a lot of their vision it's pretty attractive to see somebody who says i'm
01:41:35.680 going to fix the infrastructure and actually i'm going to do it as opposed to seeing donald trump
01:41:39.920 who is multiple times now run on rebuilding america and now whenever it does come to rebuilding
01:41:45.420 his most recent tactic is to go to bat for the data center companies and for ai more weed more
01:41:51.000 porn more gambling at a regulatory level he's done that but then even to the extent that they're
01:41:55.580 if you were to look at like what projects do they support building their main saving grace
01:42:00.720 for their presidency has been ai ai is the only reason we're not in an economic depression
01:42:05.160 ai capital expenditure specifically with data center is the major driving of any gdp growth
01:42:11.300 that we have left it is the only thing holding up our capital markets whenever it comes to
01:42:16.380 the s&p 500 they need ai to keep working and so they are going to bat at a regulatory level at
01:42:24.060 a rhetorical level to make sure that this industry becomes the multi-trillion dollar promise but why
01:42:30.240 not protect the public from mass surveillance in the process right why doesn't how about a bill in
01:42:35.120 congress that trump could call for saying you want your data centers okay but we're not going to turn
01:42:41.380 this into right east germany yeah it was we are going to every data center i mean he claims like
01:42:46.960 he says right executive orders they have to pay for their own power but it hasn't necessarily or
01:42:51.460 they have to build their own power whenever they build it i support that but that needs to be
01:42:54.740 codified into law we need to make sure that they are not bribing local officials like that case
01:43:00.340 in utah with kevin o'leary in the data center project that he spearheaded we need to make sure
01:43:05.680 look many of the water use claims are overblown but at the very least they are a somewhat of a
01:43:10.760 concern. And then power, power generation is ultimate. The amount of power, Virginia, where
01:43:15.700 I live, 40% of the power goes to data centers, 40%. It's the largest in the nation. 40% of power
01:43:22.640 generation goes to a data center. In the entire Commonwealth of Virginia? In the entire Commonwealth
01:43:26.020 of Virginia. In Oregon, it's 30%. And some of these, it depends on various different states.
01:43:31.180 Virginia is the worst because all the data centers are largely powered for the government,
01:43:35.760 for Amazon, for, we have the best fiber optic cable for, because of the defense contracting.
01:43:40.280 industry. So it's an extreme example, but I'm giving one where you can see that power generation
01:43:47.080 itself is becoming a zero-sum game, which is a nightmare, especially when you're competing
01:43:51.100 against one of the fastest growing industries in the world, which is the most power-hungry,
01:43:55.660 especially with these hyperscale data centers. If we had abundant, cheap power, none of this
01:44:00.740 would really be as much of a conversation. But it is actually living in a world where the
01:44:05.000 administration is coming to the back of these data center companies and in many cases is
01:44:09.760 attacking Republican governors, who, again, in my opinion, are just trying to do some very
01:44:14.500 sensible stuff. Greg Abbott, who, let's not pretend he's doing this out of the goodness
01:44:19.500 of his own heart. He dragged kicking and screaming to the data center. He's about to lose that
01:44:23.780 election. It's very, very well may. But he signed a data center moratorium. And in it, all he says
01:44:29.960 is, look, we're doing a moratorium. We have to figure out rural land use and water, noise
01:44:35.580 generation. We need to make sure that you don't get certain tax breaks. We just need to make
01:44:40.240 things normal so that when the local community allows the data center to be built, that they
01:44:47.620 reap some of the benefits. And Trump comes out and is like, I think it's a mistake, right? He said
01:44:52.780 that whenever about Greg Abbott. And he said that about Kathy Hochul. He said there's all these
01:44:57.360 governors. Josh Shapiro, similarly, also just announced another data center moratorium. The
01:45:02.660 proponents of the data centers will attack you for speaking this way. They'll say, you know better
01:45:06.600 than the water use or any of that not being true. In some of these cases, we've been able to lower
01:45:10.960 property tax. West Virginia data centers, they're looking at potentially trying to remove their own
01:45:16.420 income tax. And if the actual benefits of all of that work out, I would be happy. However, and this
01:45:22.260 is what you're talking about with mass surveillance, with data, with privacy, is that we cannot use
01:45:27.260 just the promise of riches to offset what could potentially be an industry which by their own
01:45:33.440 admission they say will be the most radical social change economic change since the industrial
01:45:38.520 revolution some of their own ceos say that they will make it so that none of us are even necessary
01:45:43.940 in their future world i know that privately they want that because they want to be gods they see
01:45:49.400 themselves as gods literally uh as transhumanists like their goal is to infuse the human in the
01:45:54.480 machine and that they will personally be part of a rarefied elite, which is transnational above
01:46:01.560 governments and so powerful that governments are ultimately answerable to them. That's where Flock
01:46:06.000 comes in. You and Glenn did such a great job of talking about that, about mass surveillance. And
01:46:10.820 it was amazing to me, you know, with Flock, for example, everybody talks about the crime. I
01:46:15.600 totally get it. It is very useful in many cases. But, but the internal mechanisms and controls are
01:46:22.520 not governed by any real federal privacy laws a lot of it is up to these corrupt local sheriffs
01:46:28.060 we have all these cases of police officers stalking their ex-girlfriends or their wives while using
01:46:33.340 the technology only in response to that do they put some safeguards in they claim they delete some
01:46:39.180 of the new their new customers data will be deleted after seven days not 30 days it raises
01:46:44.500 the biggest question about warrantless surveillance and privacy in your own nation to be able to move
01:46:49.240 about daily lives people say solving crimes is is worth that i say let's at least have a real
01:46:54.840 debate and guardrails and not leave it entirely up to the companies themselves well they haven't
01:46:59.700 ended crime that's for sure of course not yeah right i mean i i think harris county texas has
01:47:05.520 the highest or one of the highest penetrations of flat cameras a lot of crime there in houston
01:47:09.160 so like but i don't see let me just ask you a question that i actually have been talking to
01:47:15.820 someone involved in AI about it this morning. We just interviewed a guy called Nate Soros,
01:47:21.720 who's the guy who was an early developer of AI. He's been sounding the alarm that it's
01:47:28.720 out of control and superintelligence is a threat to humanity. And I know you're very familiar with
01:47:33.200 the argument. So he's written a new book on this. He doesn't have a counterpart on the other side.
01:47:39.940 That's what strikes me. There's not one person I'm aware of who can explain the tangible benefits
01:47:44.740 to me and other people from AI.
01:47:47.780 All I hear is China, China, China, China.
01:47:49.540 I don't care at all. 0.96
01:47:51.380 I'm sick of your lies. 1.00
01:47:52.400 China, oh, shut up. 1.00
01:47:54.140 But that's not even the beginning 1.00
01:47:56.480 of an answer to the question,
01:47:58.260 why should I support this?
01:48:00.780 Do you know the answer to that question?
01:48:02.280 I do, actually.
01:48:03.140 I have a lot of friends in tech.
01:48:04.240 So what's the upside?
01:48:06.220 It's not a vision I necessarily support.
01:48:08.420 The best case scenario for AI,
01:48:10.860 the way that they see it,
01:48:12.280 is it will simply remove friction
01:48:14.500 in our daily lives, it will be equivalent to a credit card. So this is the case. My friend,
01:48:19.960 John Coogan from TVPN gave me this analogy. He's much more bullish on AI than I am. The credit card
01:48:25.560 was able to facilitate more transactions and ease of pay, which doesn't just open up the ability for
01:48:33.460 me to pay you. It opens up more financial transactions via the distribution of credit
01:48:38.240 and a mass adoption of this that more businesses can be built on, right? It is simply a workplace
01:48:44.200 invention, which unlocks productivity, which creates and grows the pie of the amount of
01:48:50.600 commerce that can take place in our society. That's how, I would say, the best case scenario
01:48:55.980 for AI. The best case scenario for AI is it makes white-collar workers more productive at white-collar
01:49:02.040 work. It makes radiologists able to view more scans. They can do 30 instead of used to be able
01:49:08.360 to do 15. And in some cases, that is true. I want to be fair. And it can make research tasks.
01:49:13.560 For example, all the notes that I have in front of me, I had all the data from across all of my
01:49:20.580 different spreadsheets because I researched this topic and I cover it often. I was able to use it
01:49:25.800 to compile all of that into one place. It would have taken me hours. This was able to do it in
01:49:30.780 five minutes. So that's very productive, right? In terms of what it's able to gain. That is the
01:49:35.940 best case scenario for AI is it is a workplace productivity tool. Now, and this is what I would
01:49:41.800 say also to my friends what else did the credit card industry give us so yes it facilitated more
01:49:46.900 transactions it eased payments between individuals it made you know settlement of transactions between
01:49:52.620 by visa make it so that even disputes and all that can be resolved but what do you talk about
01:49:57.700 often with credit card is that 70 something percent of people ended up in debt right and
01:50:03.400 the idea that the problem with america is we don't have enough commerce right we don't have
01:50:07.840 enough creativity. We don't have enough contemplative time. We don't have enough
01:50:12.980 love between people. We don't have enough commerce. Are you joking? We have a lot of
01:50:16.880 commerce. Right. And so the argument is that technology will remove friction. But what
01:50:22.260 we have seen is technology removes friction in some ways, but introduces it in a variety
01:50:28.380 of others. That's right. Email. Nobody was able to get in touch. If you, in the 1970s
01:50:33.220 when you left your job, somebody would have to call you on the phone if something happens
01:50:36.460 after 5pm. Now everybody
01:50:38.100 sends an email. If you know
01:50:40.380 white-collar workers, they're slaves to their phones.
01:50:42.660 And they're slaves to their phones
01:50:43.980 not just for work purposes, but they also
01:50:46.540 have gambling entertainment
01:50:48.180 and Instagram reels
01:50:50.320 and TikTok. And you end up
01:50:52.280 focusing so much on this device
01:50:54.080 that you forget all of the other things
01:50:56.180 that are around you. Like your wife
01:50:57.960 and your children. One of the most liberating
01:51:00.460 things I ever did was get rid of email
01:51:01.880 10 years ago. No email.
01:51:04.540 And I don't know.
01:51:06.180 I don't think it's made me less productive.
01:51:07.420 I think it's made me more productive.
01:51:08.720 Right, and you're in the position to do that,
01:51:11.340 but there are a lot of people who are wage slaves.
01:51:12.860 Oh, no, it's a privilege.
01:51:13.840 Exactly.
01:51:14.240 I agree, and I'm very aware of that.
01:51:16.420 Yeah, right, and I always think I'm also in a position
01:51:19.980 where I'm my own boss.
01:51:21.320 I can do what I want.
01:51:22.200 That's an incredible feeling.
01:51:23.720 I don't take that for granted for a single day.
01:51:25.660 I agree with that.
01:51:26.280 Because I know so many people who are living
01:51:29.400 in effective wage slavery, who are chained to the desk,
01:51:33.960 and they're making good money,
01:51:34.880 but they're spending all that money
01:51:36.100 because they need to be able to buy a home
01:51:37.660 or to support their child or pay for daycare. 0.99
01:51:39.820 Their wife has to work 1.00
01:51:40.800 even though she doesn't want to work.
01:51:42.360 And that's tragedy actually to me.
01:51:44.480 And so what our system has done
01:51:46.520 is when they say productivity,
01:51:48.200 they want to make that person more productive.
01:51:50.620 What I want to do is to give that person more leisure
01:51:53.780 or more ability to the extent that they're more productive.
01:51:57.320 I want them to be able to use that productivity 0.79
01:51:59.060 to make up the time and spend it with their kids.
01:52:01.520 There was a viral interaction.
01:52:03.820 I think it was Sam Altman.
01:52:04.880 who was talking about being able to create custom podcasts
01:52:09.060 that he said parents could listen to these custom podcasts
01:52:12.620 in the car with their children
01:52:14.620 to use ChatGPT, the calendars and all of that,
01:52:17.780 and play that podcast.
01:52:19.160 He said, I could imagine something.
01:52:20.180 I might butcher this,
01:52:21.160 but it's like the ability to play that custom ChatGPT podcast
01:52:24.100 while the parent drives their kid to school.
01:52:26.620 And any real parent is like,
01:52:28.180 I don't want to do any of that.
01:52:30.200 Well, imagine a world in which you're getting parenting advice
01:52:32.840 from Sam Altman.
01:52:33.740 Exactly.
01:52:34.100 No, honestly, like a normal society would be like,
01:52:36.220 hey, take a pass on that, Sam Altman.
01:52:38.280 When I drive my kids to school,
01:52:39.740 when I drive my kids to school,
01:52:41.540 I want to ask her how her day is.
01:52:42.980 Yeah, go fix my washing machine, son.
01:52:45.140 I don't, what are you weighing in on stuff
01:52:46.940 you don't understand?
01:52:47.580 Do not tell me how I should be interacting
01:52:50.480 with my child on the drive.
01:52:52.920 Yeah.
01:52:53.400 But that's what ultimately their vision for society
01:52:56.960 is depersonalized and is entirely sacrificed
01:53:00.580 to the phone,
01:53:02.160 which ultimately is to their profit is that the more time i spend on chat gpt the more ads they
01:53:09.000 can serve me on the free version the more of my data that they can suck up the more that they
01:53:14.220 could potentially there's no restrictions really on any of that data they could do anything they
01:53:17.600 want uh you know how many people have there have been cases lawyers have used chat gpt and they end
01:53:21.980 up saying that's not privileged and so they're able to subpoena some of your privileged information
01:53:26.500 nobody knew that nobody even thought about it whenever they were using it for that purposes
01:53:30.480 And so the amount of our personal lives that we give over to these things, and then we allow it to make decisions for ourselves.
01:53:38.700 I think one of the real lessons I've learned as an adult is that friction itself is learning and that there is deep joy on the other side of it.
01:53:47.540 But you have to, in this modern world, you have to intentionally put yourself in a situation because it is too easy to outsource your thinking just to AI.
01:54:01.740 It's too easy to just outsource your entertainment necessarily to gamble what everybody else and all of that are doing.
01:54:08.400 It seems an easy way to get rich, but the system, everything is designed to be extractive from you.
01:54:14.820 And so what do I want from our leaders?
01:54:16.820 I want them to end that. I want them to create a society where everybody at home is not a slave
01:54:24.180 to their phone or to gambling or to any other extractive means to be able to spend time with
01:54:30.080 their families, to be able to do it on a modest budget. We're not saying it's for free, but on a
01:54:35.460 modest budget to be able to take a vacation or two. And then the most important thing that your
01:54:39.740 child will grow up and have a better life than you do, which has been broken of the social contract
01:54:43.980 since my generation, the millennial generation.
01:54:45.680 That's exactly right.
01:54:46.760 So I just have a couple more very quick questions
01:54:48.760 about politics because you follow it closely.
01:54:51.080 Do you think that there is a sizable number
01:54:53.960 of Trump voters, 2024 Trump voters,
01:54:56.420 who would vote for DSA candidates?
01:54:58.560 I've thought about this a lot.
01:55:00.480 We don't have enough evidence yet.
01:55:03.100 Michigan will be the big test. 0.95
01:55:05.080 There was a sizable contingent of Trump-Mamdani voters. 0.98
01:55:08.260 I do know this. 0.99
01:55:08.820 Is that true?
01:55:09.420 We interviewed many of them on our show.
01:55:11.220 We sent our producer out, found many of them.
01:55:13.500 There's a decent overlap, actually, maybe 10, 15% or so of the people who ended up voting for
01:55:19.400 Mamdani or AOC even who voted for Trump. All of it came down to the anti-war position.
01:55:24.180 I do think specifically on issue contingent things like Israel, the war with Iran, there is a massive
01:55:31.360 swing group, which in our modern politics is everything. The ability to swing even 2% of the
01:55:37.060 electorate is the difference between winning or losing in half of the states that Trump won in
01:55:41.620 2024. So if you're asking me, is that contingent, the independent contingent available? I would say
01:55:47.240 yes. But I do think that many conservatives harbor a dream, a sad, a dream, which is I wish for too,
01:55:54.680 but which is just not reality, where Fox News hardened boomers. Are they going to vote? Let's
01:56:02.280 put DSA out of it. Are they not going to vote? Are they going to turn on Trump? We haven't seen
01:56:06.460 enough evidence of that. We just haven't seen enough evidence in terms of the support for the
01:56:10.700 war with the 65 plus coalition, self-identified MAGA still seems very appreciative of Trump,
01:56:17.800 like Trump. Now, the argument there would be self-identified MAGA is a much more restricted
01:56:22.200 group than where it used to be before. And I wouldn't make that argument because I say that
01:56:27.420 the independent people out of that, but the people who are still in are very much in. Thomas Massey
01:56:32.260 actually said that to me. He said that the reality is, is that the Republican primary voter was still
01:56:37.940 willing to go with Trump on Israel and with Trump, with the Adelson's and with Israel on the Iran
01:56:45.120 war. And they were able to vote him out of office. And he lamented that fact specifically about
01:56:49.500 elderly Republicans. And so, but it's got to just want to break the two midterms, right?
01:56:54.480 I don't know. I don't know. Because Trump is, how will he respond to the midterms? I mean,
01:56:59.940 is there going to be self-reflection or is it just launching a ground war with Iran? 0.77
01:57:03.360 probably launching a ground war uh he will be the most and this is part of the foolishness where
01:57:08.580 do i wonder like do they have any self-preservation instincts you were around for clinton's uh 98
01:57:14.600 onwards i sure that's your life mr president that's what your life is going to be like uh
01:57:19.360 under a democratic house and a democratic senate and a house good luck to you sir the amount of
01:57:25.420 money if you're appointees i hope you all saved a lot of money your legal fees are going to be
01:57:29.300 insane. I hope you all signed up for legal insurance. If you served in Doge or ICE or
01:57:35.160 in the Pentagon or any of these, you will be called before the Congress. You will be inundated
01:57:39.620 by subpoena. There will be independent councils and all kinds of absolute insanity waged against
01:57:47.460 you. And it's your fault for allowing the country to get to a position where something like that
01:57:52.580 could be elevated. That will be what his life is going to look like, his last two years in office,
01:57:57.200 If where things trend, if things are trending in the way I think they're trending.
01:58:00.740 And you think they'll lose the Senate?
01:58:02.820 It's, it's possible.
01:58:04.660 It's, I'm not a hundred percent.
01:58:05.820 That one, there's still structural advantages for some of the Republicans.
01:58:08.740 It depends on the course of the Iran war.
01:58:10.820 I would say the gas price there probably matters more than anything, but we're close enough
01:58:14.440 where I don't, you know, Iran gets a vote in this war too.
01:58:17.900 It'd be very hard to go from economic D-Day back to $3.50 gasoline.
01:58:21.900 So in the reality of where things seem to be going, I would at least say this.
01:58:26.360 They have a 50% chance, which is 25% higher than it should have been.
01:58:30.040 And so if they have a 50% chance, maybe even a little bit more of that,
01:58:34.220 to be able to take the Senate, we could even see 08 style of a takeover.
01:58:39.100 I could see that.
01:58:40.040 I mean, in my bell curve of possibilities, if things go dramatically in one vision,
01:58:45.620 you can see Texas going Democratic.
01:58:48.120 Oh, yeah.
01:58:48.480 Especially with, yeah, especially with Abbott and Paxton,
01:58:52.360 and there's enough drama there.
01:58:54.480 You could see Alaska.
01:58:55.440 there's actually some questions that are up there uh you could see i mean i i saw a crazy poll out
01:59:01.460 of kansas who knows if it's true could just been leaked democratic opposition but as you remember
01:59:06.660 from 2008 you can have democratic senators in all kinds of places uh which you never would think
01:59:12.400 even possible and maybe you know we're still too partisan of a country but people are very upset
01:59:18.760 there's a combination of people being very upset and then a combination of people being very
01:59:23.100 demoralized. And then even the hardcore ones, why do they come out to vote? Because Trump is not on
01:59:28.680 the ballot. And that is a perfect storm for those three things to come together for a potential
01:59:33.880 situation like the one I just laid out. It sounds right to me. Yeah. I'll check
01:59:39.480 Polymarket for the odds. Tucker, thank you. That was so smart. Thank you, Tucker.
01:59:44.120 Needed. I appreciate it.