00:04:20And once you figure that out, then you can figure out his or her optimal behavior in this game.
00:04:27So in terms of geopolitics, just imagine the United States, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia as distinct players in the game, which they're trying to maximize the outcome against each other.
00:04:40And they will use their own unique strategies in order to achieve so.
00:04:44And that's how I'm able to make some amazing predictions.
00:07:38It's been four years, and most of the funding is going on in eastern Ukraine, right, over here.
00:07:46And fortunately, the war has been limited to this front.0.98
00:07:51Now, as of late February, Iran, this war in Iran has broken out.
00:07:58And what's been happening is that at first, the main conflict was over the Strait of Hormuz, which is right here.0.83
00:08:06But the problem is the entire Middle East depends on the Shred of Hormuz for trade.0.65
00:08:12So Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, what they do is they take their oil and then they transport it all the way through the Shred of Malacca to East Asia and to India and Pakistan.0.55
00:08:30So, really, the oil from the Middle East feeds the economies of Asia.
00:08:36You look at a place like Japan, it depends on three-quarters of its oil from over here.
00:13:07And as you can see, these are the two most critical maritime choke points in the Middle East.0.97
00:13:14And the problem is that the Houthis live in mountains.0.95
00:13:19So it's almost impossible to dislodge them.0.97
00:13:22And because so much of maritime shipping requires insurance, any threat of destruction means that the insurance companies don't want to insure these ships.
00:15:51So, yes, sometimes we hear about these groups.
00:15:53You hear about Hamas, you hear about Hezbollah, but the people there in some of these countries actually prefer some of these groups or actually do support some of these groups because they're kind of an outlier government that's more supportive to the people than the actual government?
00:16:08That's right. So they're popular because they are able to provide basic community services to the local population.
00:16:16And unfortunately, these governments in the Middle East, a lot of them have proved to be very corrupt.0.76
00:16:24And a lot of their leaders seem to be sympathetic towards Israeli interests.
00:16:29And people suspect that they've been blackmailed by Mossad because Mossad's very good at that.
00:25:29Okay, so throughout this entire process, there's been a lot on and off.
00:25:35So sometimes it's open, sometimes it's closed, okay?
00:25:38So now what the American response is now to put more pressure on Iran by trying to strangle the economy, okay?
00:25:50So how the United States does that is Iran ships 90% of its oil to China, right?
00:25:59So what America did was impose a naval blockade in the Arabian Sea to prevent Chinese tankers from reaching Iran and prevent Iranian tankers from reaching China.
00:26:11So they wanted to stop the flow of oil from Iran to China.
00:33:35And the Israelis have decided that now is a good time for a two-state solution.
00:33:42And the reason why is that throughout its history, Israel was always in conflict with the other Arab nations around it because of the Palestinian issue.0.72
00:33:52And the idea is that if Israel is to have security, it needs to resolve the Palestinian issue.
00:34:00It needs to give the Palestinians its own state.
00:34:02And then once that happens, then the Arab nations can resume diplomatic relations with Israel.
00:34:11They can trade peacefully, and the Middle East will be prosperous and peaceful, right?
00:34:15But you first have to resolve the Palestinian issue.
00:34:17Because a lot of the Palestinians were Muslim, right?
00:34:24So they're sympathetic towards the Muslims, right?
00:34:28So, for example, Saudi Arabia, the royal family said that as long as the Palestinian issue is not resolved, we will never, ever have peace with Israel.
00:34:37So this is what we call the Oslo peace process.
00:38:40Okay, so you're saying two of the people that came up with the Clean Break Memo then went on to work for the Pentagon.0.61
00:38:46Yes, and they're the architects of the Iraq War.0.70
00:38:49Okay, so they were architects of the Iraq War.
00:38:51Here we go, Douglas J. Faith, an American lawyer who served as Secretary of Defense for Policy.
00:38:56Faith has been described as an architect of the Iraq War.
00:38:58In the lead-up to the war, he played a key role in promoting the false claim that the Saddam Hussein regime had an operational relationship with al-Qaeda.
00:39:07A Pentagon inspector general report found that Faith's office had developed, produced, and then disseminated alternative intelligent assessments on the Iraq and al-Qaeda relationship,
00:39:17which included some conclusions that were inconsistent
00:39:21with the consensus of the intelligence community
00:48:35Where in 96, they write the Clean Break Memo encouraging Netanyahu to choose a path of war and dominance in the Middle East and to clean break away from the Oslo peace process.
00:48:52And that's exactly what he's been doing for the past 20 years.
00:50:19Like, I don't understand why they weren't secure.
00:50:22Right. So they weren't secure because the Palestinians were in revolt against them.
00:50:29The Palestinians felt that they were being oppressed, that their land was stolen from them.
00:50:33And so they were engaging in terrorist activities against the Israelis, including bus bombings, including airplane hijackings.
00:50:41But why wouldn't Israel just figure that out instead of go this other big route?
00:50:45It seems like, you know what I'm saying?0.63
00:50:47It seems like if it's me figuring out something with a neighbor as opposed to battling the whole town, it would seem like more at my behest, like a wiser choice to just figure out something with my neighbor.
00:51:22These are people who go against Israeli national law and go and forcefully evict Palestinians from their homes, even if this is against Israeli national law.
00:52:53But how would you, like, how would America, I mean, our country's way over here.
00:52:59And I know that's like, I know that doesn't mean everything, that we have this geographical space.
00:53:05But how would we, like, how would we be defeated in it?
00:53:10Well, we would be, like, the United States would be defeated if this war becomes so unpopular at home that the people revolt, and that forces the American military to retreat back to American borders.
00:57:46And so that's—I just feel like—is that going to determine a lot?
00:57:51Because, like, I mean, I feel bad for a lot of my Jewish friends here who do not want to be associated, like, you know, it's heartbreaking to them.
00:57:58You know, my friend Michael's always talking to me.
00:58:00It's like, you know, to make sure to, like, just because Israel doesn't mean Jewish people.
00:58:05It doesn't mean, like, it's the government.
01:02:35Okay, so let me clarify what they believe the mission of the Jewish people is, okay?0.64
01:02:41The mission of the Jewish people is to return to Israel, create the Greater Israel Project, which is the Promised Land, and then build the Third Temple, which will be the house of God.0.76
01:02:59So the purpose of history is to force a reunion between the Jewish people and God.0.91
01:03:08And once that happens, then the world will end and we will be in paradise forever.0.90
01:03:14So three things must happen for this world to end.0.98
01:03:19The first thing that must happen is the greater Israel project has to be achieved.0.92
01:03:24And therefore, we have these wars in the Middle East.0.86
01:03:26But why would that have to be achieved if that was something that was just developed 30 years ago?
01:03:31Because according to these people, the original covenant between the Jewish people and God is that God promised them the land stretching from the Nile in Egypt to Euphrates in Iraq as the covenant.
01:03:47And the Jewish people, once they receive this land, they must be loyal to God.
01:03:54So for God to return, first of all, his promise must be kept.
01:06:15And so I think that's the part that seems kind of alarming.
01:06:18And I think that's also the part when you don't get a lot of clear information, that's when a lot of like conspiracy theories, different ideas, uncertainties, ideas like this even start to take even more shape because you don't know you're not and you're not getting information from people who should know.
01:06:39So I think it's like I do understand how people can start to, yeah, it makes perfect sense
01:06:46how people can start to believe things and how people can start to look into things
01:06:49because there's no place to get real news anymore.
01:08:31So the power in the world is what we call transnational capital.
01:08:36And transnational capital, all it means is money that is able to move freely around the world and invest where it wants and extract profit from these places.
01:08:48And so transnational capital would include pension funds.
01:21:52By the end of 2024, Ukraine, the United States, and the South Korea estimated that around 10,000 to 12,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to Russia.
01:22:23The United States, obviously, because it controls the U.S. dollar.
01:22:25But China as well because China was able to lift millions out of poverty because of global trade, right?
01:22:33So both are heavily invested in maintaining the current global order.
01:22:37And so the idea of a grand bargain is that they resolve the Taiwan issue where basically China and Taiwan signed an agreement where they reconcile politically.
01:22:53and the United States withdraws from East Asia
01:22:58and allows China to maybe dominate East Asia.
01:27:39And so we go on this date, and I took her someplace really nice in Beijing.
01:27:43We go to a Japanese restaurant, I order sake, and it's a lovely date.
01:27:49Now, the custom in China is that on the first date, if you really like someone, the woman will get serious suddenly, okay?0.54
01:28:00I mean, you could be laughing throughout, but suddenly the woman will get really serious, look at you dead in the eye, and ask you, how much money do you make?
01:28:10Like, what's the size of your bank account?
01:33:57So one thing that I think a lot about is what are the consequences for telling the truth, for speaking up, for drawing attention to six societies?
01:41:37So if someone's laughing, other people are laughing.
01:41:40And he just asked people to pretend to laugh, like, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.
01:41:45But what's magical is, like, once you start to pretend to laugh and other people are pretending to laugh as well, people start to laugh naturally.
01:41:52And what he discovered is people who participate in Laugh Club every morning, the kids would go to school and pay more attention in class.
01:42:02The adults would go to work and have less stress.
01:42:07And the elderly would be much more resilient against disease.
01:43:48How do you, I've heard you talk about a propaganda test before.
01:43:51What's a propaganda test that you use to know if something is propaganda or not?
01:43:56Yeah, so I think what's really important is for people to make predictions.
01:44:07Because whenever we say something, we're making certain assumptions about the world.
01:44:13And so the way for us to know if the way we understand the world is correct or not is by extending the logic and making predictions about how the world should turn out.
01:44:24And if it doesn't turn out the way that we predicted it, then we should just reflect on how we think and make changes to ourselves.
01:44:33And I think the greatest problem in the world that we have today is gatekeeping.