00:04:20.140And once you figure that out, then you can figure out his or her optimal behavior in this game.
00:04:27.040So in terms of geopolitics, just imagine the United States, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia as distinct players in the game, which they're trying to maximize the outcome against each other.
00:04:40.760And they will use their own unique strategies in order to achieve so.
00:04:44.840And that's how I'm able to make some amazing predictions.
00:07:38.900It's been four years, and most of the funding is going on in eastern Ukraine, right, over here.
00:07:46.740And fortunately, the war has been limited to this front.
00:07:51.680Now, as of late February, Iran, this war in Iran has broken out.
00:07:58.800And what's been happening is that at first, the main conflict was over the Strait of Hormuz, which is right here.
00:08:06.020But the problem is the entire Middle East depends on the Shred of Hormuz for trade.
00:08:12.100So Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, what they do is they take their oil and then they transport it all the way through the Shred of Malacca to East Asia and to India and Pakistan.
00:08:30.320So, really, the oil from the Middle East feeds the economies of Asia.
00:08:36.480You look at a place like Japan, it depends on three-quarters of its oil from over here.
00:13:07.540And as you can see, these are the two most critical maritime choke points in the Middle East.
00:13:14.900And the problem is that the Houthis live in mountains.
00:13:19.300So it's almost impossible to dislodge them.
00:13:22.140And because so much of maritime shipping requires insurance, any threat of destruction means that the insurance companies don't want to insure these ships.
00:15:51.940So, yes, sometimes we hear about these groups.
00:15:53.700You hear about Hamas, you hear about Hezbollah, but the people there in some of these countries actually prefer some of these groups or actually do support some of these groups because they're kind of an outlier government that's more supportive to the people than the actual government?
00:16:08.820That's right. So they're popular because they are able to provide basic community services to the local population.
00:16:16.680And unfortunately, these governments in the Middle East, a lot of them have proved to be very corrupt.
00:16:24.040And a lot of their leaders seem to be sympathetic towards Israeli interests.
00:16:29.980And people suspect that they've been blackmailed by Mossad because Mossad's very good at that.
00:25:29.120Okay, so throughout this entire process, there's been a lot on and off.
00:25:35.440So sometimes it's open, sometimes it's closed, okay?
00:25:38.700So now what the American response is now to put more pressure on Iran by trying to strangle the economy, okay?
00:25:50.160So how the United States does that is Iran ships 90% of its oil to China, right?
00:25:59.640So what America did was impose a naval blockade in the Arabian Sea to prevent Chinese tankers from reaching Iran and prevent Iranian tankers from reaching China.
00:26:11.780So they wanted to stop the flow of oil from Iran to China.
00:33:35.420And the Israelis have decided that now is a good time for a two-state solution.
00:33:42.040And the reason why is that throughout its history, Israel was always in conflict with the other Arab nations around it because of the Palestinian issue.
00:33:52.420And the idea is that if Israel is to have security, it needs to resolve the Palestinian issue.
00:34:00.320It needs to give the Palestinians its own state.
00:34:02.400And then once that happens, then the Arab nations can resume diplomatic relations with Israel.
00:34:11.160They can trade peacefully, and the Middle East will be prosperous and peaceful, right?
00:34:15.820But you first have to resolve the Palestinian issue.
00:34:17.900Because a lot of the Palestinians were Muslim, right?
00:34:24.720So they're sympathetic towards the Muslims, right?
00:34:28.920So, for example, Saudi Arabia, the royal family said that as long as the Palestinian issue is not resolved, we will never, ever have peace with Israel.
00:34:37.720So this is what we call the Oslo peace process.
00:38:40.000Okay, so you're saying two of the people that came up with the Clean Break Memo then went on to work for the Pentagon.
00:38:46.640Yes, and they're the architects of the Iraq War.
00:38:49.100Okay, so they were architects of the Iraq War.
00:38:51.240Here we go, Douglas J. Faith, an American lawyer who served as Secretary of Defense for Policy.
00:38:56.120Faith has been described as an architect of the Iraq War.
00:38:58.500In the lead-up to the war, he played a key role in promoting the false claim that the Saddam Hussein regime had an operational relationship with al-Qaeda.
00:39:07.540A Pentagon inspector general report found that Faith's office had developed, produced, and then disseminated alternative intelligent assessments on the Iraq and al-Qaeda relationship,
00:39:17.420which included some conclusions that were inconsistent
00:39:21.460with the consensus of the intelligence community
00:48:31.740not trying to make a judgment. All I'm trying to do
00:48:33.760is point out a pattern that's emerging
00:48:35.160Where in 96, they write the Clean Break Memo encouraging Netanyahu to choose a path of war and dominance in the Middle East and to clean break away from the Oslo peace process.
00:48:52.060And that's exactly what he's been doing for the past 20 years.
00:50:19.800Like, I don't understand why they weren't secure.
00:50:22.660Right. So they weren't secure because the Palestinians were in revolt against them.
00:50:29.360The Palestinians felt that they were being oppressed, that their land was stolen from them.
00:50:33.580And so they were engaging in terrorist activities against the Israelis, including bus bombings, including airplane hijackings.
00:50:41.000But why wouldn't Israel just figure that out instead of go this other big route?
00:50:45.780It seems like, you know what I'm saying?
00:50:47.800It seems like if it's me figuring out something with a neighbor as opposed to battling the whole town, it would seem like more at my behest, like a wiser choice to just figure out something with my neighbor.
00:51:22.920These are people who go against Israeli national law and go and forcefully evict Palestinians from their homes, even if this is against Israeli national law.
00:52:53.320But how would you, like, how would America, I mean, our country's way over here.
00:52:59.420And I know that's like, I know that doesn't mean everything, that we have this geographical space.
00:53:05.340But how would we, like, how would we be defeated in it?
00:53:10.640Well, we would be, like, the United States would be defeated if this war becomes so unpopular at home that the people revolt, and that forces the American military to retreat back to American borders.
00:57:46.380And so that's—I just feel like—is that going to determine a lot?
00:57:51.260Because, like, I mean, I feel bad for a lot of my Jewish friends here who do not want to be associated, like, you know, it's heartbreaking to them.
00:57:58.280You know, my friend Michael's always talking to me.
00:58:00.020It's like, you know, to make sure to, like, just because Israel doesn't mean Jewish people.
00:58:05.260It doesn't mean, like, it's the government.
01:02:35.540Okay, so let me clarify what they believe the mission of the Jewish people is, okay?
01:02:41.700The mission of the Jewish people is to return to Israel, create the Greater Israel Project, which is the Promised Land, and then build the Third Temple, which will be the house of God.
01:02:59.080So the purpose of history is to force a reunion between the Jewish people and God.
01:03:08.240And once that happens, then the world will end and we will be in paradise forever.
01:03:14.500So three things must happen for this world to end.
01:03:19.780The first thing that must happen is the greater Israel project has to be achieved.
01:03:24.480And therefore, we have these wars in the Middle East.
01:03:26.900But why would that have to be achieved if that was something that was just developed 30 years ago?
01:03:31.460Because according to these people, the original covenant between the Jewish people and God is that God promised them the land stretching from the Nile in Egypt to Euphrates in Iraq as the covenant.
01:03:47.540And the Jewish people, once they receive this land, they must be loyal to God.
01:03:54.460So for God to return, first of all, his promise must be kept.
01:06:06.360And you don't get a lot of information sometimes.
01:06:08.620Like, you know, you'll ask political figures and stuff, why are we so embedded here?
01:06:13.680And a lot of them don't have an answer.
01:06:15.860And so I think that's the part that seems kind of alarming.
01:06:18.440And I think that's also the part when you don't get a lot of clear information, that's when a lot of like conspiracy theories, different ideas, uncertainties, ideas like this even start to take even more shape because you don't know you're not and you're not getting information from people who should know.
01:06:39.500So I think it's like I do understand how people can start to, yeah, it makes perfect sense
01:06:46.560how people can start to believe things and how people can start to look into things
01:06:49.460because there's no place to get real news anymore.
01:06:51.600There's no place to get the information.
01:06:53.640Yeah, and a lot of things that are happening right now just defy human logic.
01:06:58.940So everyone's looking at Donald Trump and it's like, the war is lost already.
01:08:31.060So the power in the world is what we call transnational capital.
01:08:36.880And transnational capital, all it means is money that is able to move freely around the world and invest where it wants and extract profit from these places.
01:08:48.500And so transnational capital would include pension funds.
01:08:52.440It would include sovereign wealth funds.
01:08:54.260It would include private capital, such as like State Street, Vanguard, Wall Street, City of London.
01:09:00.500China has a huge sovereign wealth fund, doesn't it?
01:21:52.060By the end of 2024, Ukraine, the United States, and the South Korea estimated that around 10,000 to 12,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to Russia.
01:22:23.540The United States, obviously, because it controls the U.S. dollar.
01:22:25.840But China as well because China was able to lift millions out of poverty because of global trade, right?
01:22:33.640So both are heavily invested in maintaining the current global order.
01:22:37.860And so the idea of a grand bargain is that they resolve the Taiwan issue where basically China and Taiwan signed an agreement where they reconcile politically.
01:22:53.160and the United States withdraws from East Asia
01:22:58.300and allows China to maybe dominate East Asia.
01:27:39.140And so we go on this date, and I took her someplace really nice in Beijing.
01:27:43.080We go to a Japanese restaurant, I order sake, and it's a lovely date.
01:27:49.620Now, the custom in China is that on the first date, if you really like someone, the woman will get serious suddenly, okay?
01:28:00.560I mean, you could be laughing throughout, but suddenly the woman will get really serious, look at you dead in the eye, and ask you, how much money do you make?
01:28:10.440Like, what's the size of your bank account?
01:33:57.080So one thing that I think a lot about is what are the consequences for telling the truth, for speaking up, for drawing attention to six societies?
01:41:37.540So if someone's laughing, other people are laughing.
01:41:40.260And he just asked people to pretend to laugh, like, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.
01:41:45.960But what's magical is, like, once you start to pretend to laugh and other people are pretending to laugh as well, people start to laugh naturally.
01:41:52.700And what he discovered is people who participate in Laugh Club every morning, the kids would go to school and pay more attention in class.
01:42:02.260The adults would go to work and have less stress.
01:42:07.820And the elderly would be much more resilient against disease.
01:43:48.540How do you, I've heard you talk about a propaganda test before.
01:43:51.700What's a propaganda test that you use to know if something is propaganda or not?
01:43:56.600Yeah, so I think what's really important is for people to make predictions.
01:44:07.880Because whenever we say something, we're making certain assumptions about the world.
01:44:13.560And so the way for us to know if the way we understand the world is correct or not is by extending the logic and making predictions about how the world should turn out.
01:44:24.120And if it doesn't turn out the way that we predicted it, then we should just reflect on how we think and make changes to ourselves.
01:44:33.460And I think the greatest problem in the world that we have today is gatekeeping.
01:44:38.020There's too much gatekeeping in media.
01:44:40.540There's too much gatekeeping in academics.
01:44:43.240So, for example, I'm not really a professor, right?