00:06:45.480there was a lot of very pleasant-sounding optimistic promises
00:06:49.060about things that will be done primarily after the next election.
00:06:52.820So it didn't seem like there was much of substance.
00:06:55.000But the one thing that was completely missing, and appears to me to be completely missing more broadly from the conversation outside of a few people, is the debt and the deficit, which is continuing to increase it, and the fact that the yields are now higher than they were under List Trust, if I remember correctly.
00:07:14.020So we are now in a position where we're spending huge amounts of money paying off the interest on the debt we already have, continuing to borrow more.
00:07:22.640And now you have a prime minister who says we must undo everything that was done in the last 40 years, which means to go back to bigger government and more government intervention.
00:07:32.480What does that mean for us economically?
00:07:34.160It means that we're in trouble, and that it means he wants a bigger state and higher taxation
00:07:40.280at a time when we have the highest tax burden in peacetime already, and the state already
00:07:47.300accounts for about 45% of our GDP, which is also high by modern times.
00:07:52.420So he wants to go, instead of saying, well, taxes are too high, the state's too big, it's
00:07:58.140not very good at what a lot of it does, let's pare it back, let's have lower taxes, let's
00:08:02.680have a state which concentrates on doing what the state can do and do it well rather than trying to
00:08:08.360do everything he wants to move in the opposite direction and no politician is very keen in
00:08:14.760talking much about the national debt or about the budget deficit which every year adds to that debt
00:08:21.400because they don't know what to do about it i mean in america fiscal conservatism is dead
00:08:26.600no one talks about it on the republican or the democrat side and their national debt is now 40
00:08:31.720trillion, $40 trillion. Nobody even knows what that means. I just think it's a lot.
00:08:38.360Ronald Reagan once said to me, he said, you know, Andrew, a billion here, a billion there,
00:08:44.040it soon adds up to real money. Well, it's now a trillion here, a trillion there. And we've got
00:08:50.220a developing fiscal crisis on the other side of the channel, Francis. Got some real problems at
00:08:55.240the moment which haven't been much covered. So Britain's not alone in this, but Britain is
00:09:00.640peculiarly vulnerable to it. We still pay a moron premium thanks to the brilliant work of Liz Truss0.98
00:09:09.380during that short period that I call the cluster truss. I could call it something ruder, but I know0.97
00:09:15.080this is a family show. So I think the cluster truss will do. And rather than take steps that
00:09:21.300would recognize that, Rachel Reeves, a Starmer, and now Mr. Healy and Mr. Burnham are going to
00:09:29.260add to that. They're going to add to the amount of spending. They're going to add to the amount
00:09:34.800of debt. And that's a pretty dangerous thing to do, because at the moment, the bond markets,
00:09:41.660which is where governments go to borrow, are pretty skittish about everybody, which is why
00:09:47.440there has been a global rise in the price you have to pay if you're a government to get your
00:09:53.580debt away. The 30-year bonds in America this year just reached a new record, the highest since 2002.
00:10:00.940This year, our 10-year bonds, the government yesterday in Britain borrowed another 4 billion
00:10:06.360and it had to pay, it's a 10-year bond, it's a guilt as they're called in Britain, it's a 10-year
00:10:13.040guilt, and we had to pay the highest interest rate since 1999. So you can get the debt away,
00:11:11.680You don't make any money out of that at all.
00:11:13.580And so that combination of our past record, the size of our debt, the size of our deficit, and the fact that inflation is kind of built into the system in Britain now means that the bond markets have us in the crosshairs more than anybody else.
00:11:34.940So come the budget, this government better be very careful what it does.
00:11:38.240If it tries to fiddle or be smart with the fiscal rules, they will pay a big penalty.
00:29:31.860And I believe that if it wasn't for that long tail, that dark shadow of the great crash, there would not have been Brexit. We would not have voted to leave in 2016. And Donald Trump would not have won in 2016.
00:29:49.580Both these votes were the revenge of what my old mentor, Alistair Burnett, who was editor of The Economist, used to call, with reverence, plain folk in the nicest sense of the word, the plain, decent people of this country.
00:30:04.360They were the rebellion of the plain folk of this country against the elites who had caused so many of our problems, but were still doing so well.
00:30:16.160And it has continued since, and it explains the rise of the National Rally of Le Pen in France and also of the AFD in Germany, of the Sweden Democrats in Sweden, not the Social Democrats, the Sweden Democrats, of Madame Maloney's party in Italy.
00:30:33.480It's had an enormous political impact,
00:30:36.500which is not over yet, which is still there.
00:30:39.680Well, as you say, I mean, it's clear we're living
00:30:41.740in the age of populism, both left and right,
00:43:53.800we're going to be trapped in the situation.
00:43:55.440Well, we're in an interesting time. We've just come out of the Labour Party conference in Liverpool. And the Tory party conference in Birmingham is going to open in the upcoming weekend and go into the earlier part of next week.
00:44:11.120And I think now the interesting thing we see, how do the Conservatives position themselves?
00:44:17.120They are now up against a clearly tax and spend socialist government.
00:44:24.380So do they now say this is our chance to rediscover our Thatcherite roots?
00:44:31.520And of course, bring them into a modern setting and modern issues, which I would guess is
00:44:37.640probably came a bit in North's instincts, but can she bring the party with her? Is she prepared to
00:44:44.120take unpopular decisions, even unpopular policies that might not in the short run have a lateral
00:44:51.620advantage? But I think sometimes you have to have the courage and the faith in your own convictions
00:44:59.880and in your own analysis. And if you think that given the size of government in Britain already,
00:45:07.640and the size of the tax burden and the scale of the borrowing,
00:45:12.760then attempting to do more of the same on a grand scale,
00:45:17.980which is now the Burnham strategy,0.86
00:45:20.120if you think that's the route to going to hell in a handbasket,
00:45:23.160then you need the intellectual courage to lay down the markers,
00:45:31.520to explain why this is going to happen,
00:59:38.100At a time when I would say it was a great institution that I really admired, but for many of us, it doesn't feel like it has remained one since. Do you share that analysis?
00:59:49.520Yes, I do. The BBC still does many great things, but I think the BBC's biggest weakness is the idea it can just carry on as it is.
00:59:59.380You know, the BBC business model, if I can put it that way, was invented when Lennon was in the Kremlin and Warren Harding was in the White House.
01:00:13.400And I forget, and I think it was maybe Baldwin was forming his first government.
01:00:19.000I can't remember in the early 20s because the government was probably born of law or something like that.
01:00:24.220And I've ventured to suggest that this is a different world
01:00:27.360and that that business model just can't play.
01:00:31.120Look, I don't think young people today,
01:00:36.020given the huge choice of streamers and YouTube
01:07:29.900Everything from adolescence to slow horses to black doves to the agency, which, interestingly, the American version of the French Triumph Liburo, they're actually based in London.
01:07:44.100And we have the skills, the skill base, the technology.
01:10:53.180And it's true of ABC in Australia, it's true of ZDF in Germany, it's true of Entendu in France, or of PBS in America.
01:11:04.780There's just something that public service broadcasting on the news leans to the left.
01:11:10.140Which means in the Neil scheme of the BBC, on the billion pound public service broadcasting core, of which news would be the crown jewel, you would have to have special, special emphasis on restoring impartiality.
01:11:31.200and a really tough internal regulation