True Patriot Love - November 12, 2026


Carney’s 2026 Budget： Where Is the Extra $37B Expense Going？ ｜ Part 3⧸4

Carney’s $25B Wealth Fund Gets a New CEO—Will It Work？ ft. Anthony Furey From Scooby-Doo to America's Got Talent ft. Greg Morton

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27 minutes

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Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00 well days after the federal budget was officially released we're still trying to digest it break it
00:00:10 down and make it easier for you to understand forget what you keep hearing from certain
00:00:15 politicians saying canada's the lowest net debt to gdp ratio in the g7 this is the truth this is
00:00:22 what the real numbers say to joe is to break it down our man the accountant paul micucci how are
00:00:27 paul used to be accountant yeah yeah well you still have the skill i still have the skills yeah
00:00:31 you never you never let the skills go so you know as i mentioned jim you know it's a it's a very uh
00:00:37 anti-climatic budget um not a lot not a lot of changes but i thought there's some key elements
00:00:43 in the expenses and so we have a set of charts we're going to throw up the charts just like we
00:00:47 did in revenue time out will this help us master our destiny with these charts master your destiny
00:00:54 master destiny yeah so but you know this is this is a whole um other kettle of fish because
00:01:02 what we're seeing here is we're we're basically seeing pretty much status quo expenses some are
00:01:07 going up slightly but quite frankly um our expenses has stayed fairly stable um we've gone up uh you
00:01:18 know a little bit a lot of it is to do with stuff like debt servicing yes which is which is staggering
00:01:25 senior payments so as i go through so you know you look at last year when we did last year's show
00:01:31 which is the 2025 26 budget and this is the 2000 correct x27 budget our total expenses have gone
00:01:40 up from 565 billion dollars to 602 billion so that's not a huge increase it's not a huge
00:01:47 increase but but what it is jim when you look at it a lot of it like i said is from from the debt
00:01:53 servicing component the public expenses going up and i'm going to go through kind of line by line
00:01:58 and sure where they went sure expenses so the the first one we call it major transfers to persons
00:02:04 so this is basically the old age security it's the unemployment insurance benefits and it's the
00:02:11 child benefits and that canada child benefit has become a real center point to the liberal strategy
00:02:19 as they say helping canadians helping them with families and pay the bill so that's something
00:02:24 they're definitely investing a lot of money into right so the the interesting part of this is as we
00:02:29 go through um and we look at it is some of the things that canadians are going through right now
00:02:35 So we have an aging population.
00:02:37 So number one, if you look at OAS, old age security, it's about a $6.7 billion increase from last year.
00:02:46 Because we're aging.
00:02:48 It's just demographics, right?
00:02:49 Now, when we did it on last year's budget, I didn't repeat it because, you know, it goes, this group continues to get highly indexed.
00:02:59 So it's an 8% increase year over year.
00:03:01 um but you know the one thing is it has a high indexing on it so what i mean every year there's
00:03:09 a two three percent index so they get a raise so you know as the inflation goes up they get an
00:03:15 increase the population of seniors is increasing the number of people getting oas so this is just
00:03:21 a growing number this is a this is a challenge you know absolutely there's no easy way to to put
00:03:26 this this is becoming a bigger challenge that's why we've done shows on changing the retirement
00:03:31 age looking at other options other countries are looking at it um they've had no choice but to look
00:03:36 at it i just watched a good series on blueberg that talks about what other nations are doing to
00:03:41 try to control this who's doing it well um you know it's it is a real challenge as we go through
00:03:47 it thank goodness we have a strong pension fund i'm hoping quite frankly with all this ai and
00:03:52 market fluctuations we haven't uh weakened that a little um and we'll see when the next report
00:03:59 they do but real quick though on paul on old age security the oas you think 30 years ago that's not
00:04:06 that long ago canadians there weren't as many uh pretend percentile seniors as there are today
00:04:12 and people didn't live as long as they do today yeah so it's it's we have more singers and people
00:04:18 living longer a very quick favor before we continue a large percentage of you who watch
00:04:24 or listen to tpl media every week aren't subscribed yet our simple commitment to you is that if you
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00:04:44 just five seconds costs nothing keeps you informed so thank you now back to the show and uh also we're
00:04:51 going to see it in the health care benefits so our health care costs are going up correct our oas is
00:04:56 going up though all those things are increasing exactly on top of that you know jim you look at
00:05:02 we saw 28.8 billion last year for unemployment insurance benefits it's going up to 32.9
00:05:09 this is in lockstep what they they actually predicted this so this was very similar to
00:05:15 last year's budget uh they did predict that we'd see a constant increase in unemployment um in this
00:05:22 budget they've actually showed it like a curve going down uh i think going down after 2028 so
00:05:29 it starts to recede again but this is really the onset of the tariffs the adjustments we're doing
00:05:35 you know auto soft lumber all those things that we're talking about so as they put in these
00:05:40 supports for people who are being you know uh we're going to talk about delantis and uh brampton
00:05:47 uh in a few minutes on another show that's just case in point those people they have supports for
00:05:53 them but they're part of their supports is they have to fall off to unemployment insurance because
00:05:58 employment eventually your ei benefits run out there's a finite time to it yes yeah um child
00:06:06 child benefits quite frankly you see it's fairly stable um this is just an indexing so you know
00:06:11 they basically give it an inflation rate every year but you know as we talked about so um you
00:06:18 know 37 billion dollar increase uh year over year in our expenses for the for the federal government
00:06:26 uh 11.9 almost 12 billion come from this category of major transfers to persons so
00:06:32 you know it's a it's a it's a hefty increase in this category it's one third right well we have
00:06:36 to bring something up that that affects this mark carney has made it clear that they're taking 200
00:06:42 000 temporary citizens and making permanent canadians yes and then with the immigration
00:06:49 you're looking at close to 400 000 so that's 600 000 people now in the next year that will be
00:06:55 potentially on oas uh maybe on ei maybe getting child canada benefits and that that adds to the
00:07:03 strain on the system yeah oh definitely well you look at you know uh we've talked about our birth 1.00
00:07:08 rates are so low from canadians that are here now yeah so you know anyone who's coming to canada 1.00
00:07:14 right now quite frankly one of the reasons they're being brought in is because quite frankly they need
00:07:19 the population to keep absolutely it's not growing right now so of course your child care benefits
00:07:24 will go up yeah so so if you look the next is major transfers to provinces jim so that's the
00:07:30 next category yes now a very contentious one paul it is you know not changing substantially
00:07:37 so i just wanted to you know this is one that i thought we would see a more movement on given
00:07:44 what's going on in alberta what's going on in quebec yeah i thought we'd see a little more
00:07:49 movement in this one jim but as you can see you know the majority of it comes from quite frankly
00:07:54 health care you know the health transfers again just like we talked about coming from aging
00:08:00 canadians um people who are crossing that threshold and also the indexing so it's the same
00:08:07 you know the pattern as you're seeing you're not seeing a lot of new things in this budget
00:08:11 what you're seeing is the demographics changing in canada driving the numbers
00:08:17 i'd like to say organically so they're responding to and and you know when guys put these together
00:08:22 these budgets they give the government the the bureaucrats and then the actual politicians
00:08:27 they give them a set of low middle and high scenarios and then you know they actually sit
00:08:33 around a table and they pick the scenario by each line in each category then which goes into making
00:08:39 up the budget and it's pretty dynamic up until the end so the modeling they do is pretty dynamic
00:08:45 waiting to for example the u.s election the you know to watch the blue wave you know go over trump
00:08:51 so then they go back and they say okay let's change this one let's change this one and you
00:08:55 know have it impact year three year four year five right the funny thing about the health transfer
00:09:01 up until 93 94 when jean cretion got elected and then paul martin was the finance minister and in
00:09:08 that time they decided to cut the health transfers to provinces to help balance the budget and there
00:09:15 was an expectation the government would ramp up health transfers back to pre-cuts that's never
00:09:21 really happened it's gone up a bit but the health transfers that provinces received in the 80s and
00:09:26 early 90s they've never had them again no they were the boom period that's a good point jim i
00:09:31 didn't bring that up but yeah it's a great point and they're never coming back no they're never
00:09:35 coming back so quite frankly you know they'll be you know they're talking about hospitals here and
00:09:41 there and things like that those those things are you know they're not they're not in this budget
00:09:47 well the cost of building a hospital in 92 and 91 is i mean compared to now it's not even comparable
00:09:54 no no it isn't it isn't and you know that that leads me next to social transfers jim it's stable
00:10:00 yeah so basically they anticipate what what they anticipate now and we talked about it on the
00:10:05 revenue side they anticipate uh because of the super cycle and the mega deduction and all the
00:10:12 the incentives tax incentives that they're giving to citizens and non-citizens that they'll see a
00:10:19 spike in the number of jobs coming into play and social assistance will stabilize and potentially
00:10:26 go down now that's a big if right that's bingo exactly that's the one you hit on you know i just
00:10:31 i jumped in there because you know um and it and it's interesting because i guess at the end when
00:10:39 they finalized this budget they looked at it again and they came back and said you know we better put
00:10:45 a little more money in for the years going further forward after 2026-27 so you you'd think this one
00:10:53 would curve off right so if the strategy of the super cycle but it's not so no so social transfers
00:11:00 continue to increase but increase at a mild rate but they are increasing equalization payments
00:11:07 again pretty stable um there's nothing new there you know the the issue being quite frankly you
00:11:13 know the provinces are in uh you know shortfalls well especially the have not provinces have always
00:11:21 relied on equalization just to be able to pay for the basic needs of the province right now with
00:11:27 Alberta quite frankly in the oil spike and you're seeing you know the kind of the boom there yeah
00:11:33 you should see some revenue but they've they've kept a flat number basically on this one same with
00:11:39 territorial formula financing and health care agreements with provinces all those have been
00:11:45 kind of left untouched and then you know the one that actually pops up is the Canada-wide early
00:11:52 learning and child care um that one quite frankly uh has gone up slightly for next year and uh but
00:12:01 then quite i thought you know and i'm gonna have to look at a little more i thought that program
00:12:06 was going away i don't think so but i see it when you look at the budget to 2030 it seems to spike
00:12:13 in um 2027 and 28 and then it starts to recede so there but here's the problem paul so you've
00:12:22 brought it in yeah what kind of politician would get re-elected if they take it away take it away
00:12:27 so you can't really take it away can you no no so it's here to stay yeah once you put it on the
00:12:33 table it's hard to get off the table um so all told you know for major transfers to provinces
00:12:39 whether they be for health care social assistance whether it be transfer payments you're looking at
00:12:43 another six so you know again 37 billion dollar increase in expenses six you know we talked about
00:12:50 earlier 12 coming so you're you know you're covering a big portion of it just on the major
00:12:55 transfers right there's that term you use if if the jobs come if the revenue increases if if if
00:13:02 yeah no it's yeah there's a lot of ifs here um direct program expenses so this is and this is
00:13:10 interesting because this one is a catch-all government and you know when you look at direct
00:13:16 program expenses um it's pretty all-encompassing isn't it well it was very confusing and we're
00:13:22 still digging into it but what we've been able to figure out is that um we thought that the
00:13:29 direct program expenses which is you know uh crown corporation employees of the government yes all
00:13:35 the people that load into the programs and departments at all the expenses that make up
00:13:39 the government we thought that that was going down right it's not no it's going up by 19 billion
00:13:49 right so you're talking about department of fisheries agriculture all that kind of thing
00:13:53 all those and crown corporations we thought we thought all those departments were going down so
00:13:58 we've been digging digging and digging and we're like okay that's weird because then we have the
00:14:02 conversation that you know when the labor stats came out that a lot of people from the public
00:14:07 service were uh you know on that uh uh lost their job had been uh that was the story circulating
00:14:15 let go yeah we're looking for new jobs you know and we were and we were very uh um you know we
00:14:21 felt sorry that that was happening to them but we understood that that did have to happen um
00:14:26 because and this is the explanation we're able to kind of figure this out they've increased it
00:14:31 because of the super cycle and the number of major projects they're doing they feel that they have to
00:14:39 actually reallocate resources to those projects and to those departments to oversee the projects
00:14:46 so a mining uh pipeline etc that the mckenzie highway will have its own little department
00:14:53 so where you see people leaving you know ottawa yes right they might be needing people up in
00:15:00 sous saint marie or they might you know yes so yes so we're seeing kind of this movement that's
00:15:05 a very interesting counterbalance of how they're budgeting this but this makes up like if you take
00:15:10 a look at uh other transfers and you take a look at um the direct expenses jim they're actually
00:15:18 uh putting 26.4 billion so that's the remaining part other than debt servicing of expenses that
00:15:24 were going to occur and that one was a real i have to admit that's a lot of money it was a shocker
00:15:29 and i'm still trying to figure out um you know and i'll probably come back on another show we're
00:15:34 still trying to figure out how they calculated that number um because it we know it makes up
00:15:43 more than a hundred government departments agencies and crowd corps as well as you know
00:15:48 like allowable allowance for bad debts but we're still trying to figure out how they would come to
00:15:53 that number and but paul i i have to say this let me jump in yeah i don't think they want you to
00:15:58 know they don't want us to know because i think they purposely made it vague and other transfer
00:16:04 payments other direct program expenses because they could apply that to many different things
00:16:10 as you said that's a big increase it's a big chunk of money and now they have the flexibility to
00:16:16 do different things really undefined as they need it well remember so you remember when we
00:16:24 when you and i did the first show about the super cycle yeah you know we were jumping around and i
00:16:29 wish i had a super yeah yeah yeah good bicycle but it is an interesting thing because when we
00:16:35 you and i talked about if you look on that uh that round chart yes you start with the kind of the
00:16:41 idea then you go to the investment then you build it and then you get an roi you re you know you
00:16:47 really uh invest in the idea well they're at the planning stage so they're at the first stage so
00:16:54 this is kind of money they're leaving aside i think to try to spur the planning to move forward
00:17:00 so this is when um when we talked about uh the train uh you know this is the research and
00:17:09 engineering on whether they do the you know the rail uh across canada this is the engineering on
00:17:16 you know the uh uh mining up north yeah so they have fire this is yeah exactly these are all these
00:17:24 things coming into play uh and we're seeing them kind of as a catch-all planning it's a lot of
00:17:29 money for planning to your point you know you made the this is where i get nervous about no guard
00:17:34 rails in place you know you told me a story about quite frankly a project for a museum last time we
00:17:40 here or an archive for uh you know notes from the former prime minister um quite frankly how do you
00:17:48 how do you determine if you're getting value from money when you look at this if you don't allocate
00:17:53 it directly to a line item so think about this paul with that much money i'm a business person
00:18:01 i'm an investor why would i spend all my money to build that access road to the mine i'll just
00:18:08 go to the government hey we're having a little trouble completing the project we need another
00:18:13 billion dollars here you go you know what we need to build a bridge for that mckenzie highway but
00:18:18 so they're gonna go why am i gonna spend all my money they've got this extra money right there
00:18:24 in the budget i'll just tap into those funds right hey before we go any further please hit
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00:18:40 to miss what happens behind the paywall all right back to the show well which is listen if if if at
00:18:46 the end of the day that's what it is and you know you need extra resources whether it be people
00:18:51 whether it be you know setting up uh research studies whatever if you need that allocate them
00:18:58 by project let's see where all the money goes and see how it gets this first i haven't been able to
00:19:02 get there yet but it is a big if you look at it jim it's um for the budget increase as we mentioned
00:19:08 37 this is uh 26 yeah look there's going to be some very wealthy companies spend less of their
00:19:17 own money and use that money to help build stuff yeah exactly um i'm not sure canadians are going
00:19:23 to be thrilled when they find that out but that's what it is no no i know which is which is very
00:19:28 bizarre uh last one quite frankly you brought it up you know it's just an escalating number and and
00:19:35 this really is is the debt and it's quite for the interest on the debt um it grew another it's going
00:19:42 to grow another six almost 6.7 billion dollars uh you know based on higher interest rates best based
00:19:48 on higher debt very simple you know just think and the rates are going up again yeah so it'll go you
00:19:53 They have factored in rate increases, but it is part of what's driving a big part.
00:20:02 And that's the one where on the last show, you mentioned that by 2030, it's going to hit $80 billion.
00:20:08 So again, you look at we've handled revenue, we've handled the expenses,
00:20:13 we see where the $63 billion deficit's coming from.
00:20:18 There's not a lot of new news.
00:20:19 That's really what, I hate to be anticlimactic on this one,
00:20:23 but you know other than the fact that we're keeping some contingency money to try to spur
00:20:29 some uh productivity through projects that we're building throughout the nation we put extra money
00:20:36 in you know to figure all that out so based on that and i based on all the logic and all the
00:20:43 numbers which are black and white why are we giving 12 million dollars for the justin trudeau
00:20:50 archives and you could probably do it for a million and a half two million max why are we
00:20:55 giving 600 million dollars to media in canada that keep them afloat what i mean there's a lot of stuff
00:21:02 being shelled out they're like wait a sec if we're trying to service the debt trying to pay for social
00:21:08 services and oas and this and this why are we spending money on all some of these other things
00:21:14 because right now we're not willing to make the hard decisions really is what it is jim like
00:21:18 where we're where we're at is this budget is pretty much status quo you know let let the
00:21:24 indexes drive the numbers up you know we're going to try to to get some project productivity going
00:21:29 with some projects this next year quite frankly is going to be a tough year we're going you know
00:21:34 they've decided to eat the deficit not try to attack the deficit it's been a very passive it
00:21:40 has been a very passive approach and my guess is rather than politically or economically rocking the
00:21:49 boat with canadians right now because of the tenuous situation we're in with the us they're
00:21:53 trying to make everyone happy they've decided to kind of keep the peace with everyone they're
00:21:59 giving guaranteed income to artists yeah they're they're basically giving a whole bunch of money
00:22:05 to create canadian television i am a huge supporter a canadian tv and movie production
00:22:10 but if i think about the trailer park boys and letter kenny and some of these big shows that
00:22:16 have become big successes in streaming they're just something that was created by the different
00:22:20 people involved but you've kept you know you think about you know from major transfers to transfer
00:22:26 payments to provinces to government expenses they've decided not to really no touch any of
00:22:34 of them Jim because he talked about sacrificing that was one of his things well that's what I
00:22:39 but there's been no sacrifice yet has there no not in an you know and I I didn't spend up I said
00:22:44 this on the revenue show I'll say it on the expense though Jim I didn't spend a lot of time
00:22:49 on anything past next year now some people will criticize me for it I think it's a futile effort
00:22:55 based on the way the world is now to be spending much time and you know that's a good point usually
00:23:00 when you do your budgeting you budget on a three to five year cycle of any business
00:23:04 i think with the way the world is right now three to five months cycle exactly i think a one-year
00:23:10 budgeting cycle should be sufficient but now but you know you started the show with uh you know
00:23:15 talking about uh you know what had happened in the past and budgets and you do look at you know
00:23:20 there was a time in canada when provinces and governments strive to balance budgets and reduce
00:23:27 deficits i mean that was the whole reason paul martin was appointed finance minister his whole
00:23:33 thing was to bring costs down and be fiscally responsible across the nation that was the whole
00:23:39 reason for chretchen in the early mid-90s that was their whole that's what they did that seems to have
00:23:44 left our vocabulary it doesn't seem to be it doesn't seem to be like anything we're going to
00:23:49 entertain at this point and i i you know i don't know how we could with that much debt i mean
00:23:55 realistically all you did was focus on uh trying to create as much revenue spend as little tax and
00:24:00 pay down debt even at that well yeah you don't have in the revenue show we just did jim there
00:24:06 is nothing you know other than pers you know personal income tax is what's driving up the
00:24:12 number this year for revenue you know the expenses are out driving as we talked about the revenue
00:24:18 three to one so quite frankly where is it going to come from you don't have it but but that is
00:24:24 in my mind i talked about it earlier yeah i think it's it's finding ways to spur on new entrepreneurs
00:24:30 at the small and middle business yeah it's figuring out a resource strategy and try to keep
00:24:36 at least an equity contribution if we're going to build sovereign funds those sovereign funds
00:24:41 are aimed at actually increasing uh and taking advantage of a percentage of our resource
00:24:47 development there's there's all kinds of strategies but those strategies we're not
00:24:51 touching we're not touching those right now no and we're in the planning phase um we gotta we
00:24:57 got a few tough years well so just to add to that there was a story the other day that canada had a
00:25:03 record amount of trade with china in the third quarter of this year i saw that yeah between
00:25:07 oil tankers yes and uh food and canola potash etc yeah um carney's about to meet with all the
00:25:15 big players in china there's probably going to be more deals coming for this country whether we like
00:25:19 it or not whether you're happy with the canada china alliance it's coming well he did you know
00:25:24 and he did say quite frankly in his press conference that he felt that china was now a
00:25:29 more reliable safer bet for trading than the u.s which shocked a lot of people i thought that was
00:25:35 a very interesting statement absolutely bold statement to make but yeah you know but the the
00:25:40 interesting thing jim i'm sorry you know we can go into it but no no the the interesting thing is
00:25:45 quite frankly we say that and we say we're going to deal with china but yet quite frankly when we
00:25:50 talk about tanker bands they run a bill and they actually voted again to keep tanker bands going
00:25:57 right after the bc election so how are we going to get the oil and gas to china and strathcona is
00:26:03 sitting there saying you know i can be doing you know thousands of barrels of hundreds of thousands
00:26:09 of barrels a day right and they're like no we don't want to do that and the rail is already
00:26:13 built and i'm thinking i don't know he can then it's it's very disjointed right the way the bills
00:26:20 come out and quite frankly they vote for this you know so uh the coordination and you can kind of see
00:26:28 in this budget that there was a point in time where i think they just threw their hands up and
00:26:32 said okay this year coming up we're just going to run status quo deficits because we don't really
00:26:38 know what's going to happen and quite frankly maybe it is quite what you said jim on you know
00:26:43 that slush fund of money that 26 billion dollars that's sitting there maybe it is we got to see who
00:26:49 the leader is who kind of who steps up who steps up yeah and those are the people we're going to
00:26:53 fund but if that's the case right that should have been structured into a uh mechanism that
00:27:02 had guard rails and you know that's similar we just did this show on the sovereign fund you know
00:27:07 the canada strong fund that's kind of our same comment there yeah i don't disagree with it quite
00:27:12 frankly show me the guard wells controls uh uh expenditure limits show me the investment tools
00:27:18 you're going to use love the idea just let's just let's get it out there and have the discussion
00:27:24 we can't do you know in that case that fund was announced in april uh the ceo just got
00:27:29 announced two days ago the american ceo yeah two days ago yeah like come on what's taking
00:27:35 it so long just to get a person in place i don't know but it's a it's a budget that we'll be
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