Western Standard - THE PIPELINE： Independence Week

00:00:00.000 Good day, today is October 14th, 2026.

00:00:27.680 I am Derek Fildebrand, publisher of The Western Standard, and you're watching The Pipeline.

00:00:32.340 Today is not Independence Day, it's Independence Week.

00:00:37.440 And that's what we're going to be talking about for the entirety of today's show.

00:00:41.160 We've got the normal roundup here of Corey Morgan, Nigel Hannaford, Dave Naylor.

00:00:47.060 Hello.

00:00:47.780 And of course, John running the studio here.

00:00:51.120 It's just going to be Independence.

00:00:52.660 on Monday.

00:00:56.160 Albertans go to the polls.

00:00:57.700 If they haven't already, the advanced polls are open

00:00:59.660 right now. I'm intending to vote in the advanced

00:01:01.800 polls on the way home from the office today.

00:01:04.140 And

00:01:04.540 the voting,

00:01:07.780 it's not going to be like a regular election

00:01:09.920 night. You're not getting

00:01:11.620 any results before you go to bed. They're going to come

00:01:13.780 in somewhere between

00:01:14.940 1 and 4 a.m.

00:01:17.860 is what Elections Alberta is telling us.

00:01:20.140 I know, Dave, we've worked

00:01:21.800 at the logistics of this best as we can predict we're gonna have people literally in the newsroom

00:01:26.660 here all night long uh we rarely have shifts but um that would be like an old sound newsroom we

00:01:32.980 actually have people coming in punching the clock uh we'll be bringing in uh some egg mcmuffins and

00:01:37.860 whatnot for for the morning crew so we will have the results uh possibly before any other media

00:01:44.480 outlet i can't speak to what they're doing but we're gonna have people at it all night long

00:01:48.280 We're not going to know the results that night, but we will know them in the extreme, likely know them in the extreme early hours of the morning.

00:01:57.960 And we'll be here for that and we'll be reporting on it.

00:02:01.240 So let's talk about the last week of the campaign.

00:02:06.620 Corey, just yesterday, Jason Kenney was sharing the stage in Edmonton with his friend, Rachel Notley.

00:02:18.280 Um, and, uh, he, he had some choice words for members and supporters of the UCP, uh, who don't

00:02:26.120 agree with him on the independence issue. It was, to be honest, bizarre. I mean,

00:02:29.900 he's taken his Federalist side, fine, absolutely, whatever, go ahead, do your thing, try to find

00:02:34.920 some relevance after you've been ejected by the members once. But taking that shot as a guy who

00:02:40.120 has a lot of political acumen, I mean, Jason Kenney's a smart guy, he knows how the game works

00:02:44.440 as well or better than most people and he knows darn well too that at least over half of the

00:02:52.000 membership of the ucp is independent sympathetic i mean they don't necessarily want to turn it into

00:02:55.980 an independence party but that's where they sit and for him to counsel a purge of that party

00:03:01.720 of that segment of support would be so destructive and rip that party down to its its roots i just i

00:03:09.440 I've got to admit, it really crossed a new line with me with Kenny.

00:03:13.220 I think he's just trying to throw sand in the gears.

00:03:15.820 As I've said online, I don't think he wants Premier Smith to succeed where he failed

00:03:19.520 and win two elections in a row, and he's seeing what he can do to jam up the mix.

00:03:24.380 And it was really beyond that.

00:03:25.940 We'll come back to you in a second.

00:03:26.660 Let's actually just play a short clip.

00:03:28.980 It's not the entirety of it because it was a long conversation,

00:03:30.940 but I think we'll show a very fair synopsis of what the former Premier, Jason Kenney,

00:03:36.820 said with the former Premier, Rachel Notley.

00:03:39.440 Let's stay there and turn it into a separatist party.

00:03:42.000 So there's no doubt that those folks have infiltrated,

00:03:46.140 and I think it's going to require there will be, when this is done,

00:03:50.660 a moment where there has to be a reckoning.

00:03:54.380 Either that party stands for its founding declaration

00:03:57.940 of the commitment to Canada upon which it has received a majority mandate twice,

00:04:03.780 and if it does, these people have to be shown to the door

00:04:07.460 and told they're welcome to participate in democracy but if their goal primary goal is

00:04:12.400 separation then they have to do it in a separatist party you know again uh we know that uh continuing

00:04:20.000 this conversation will be bad for the economy uh we know of course that uh that uh uh an option

00:04:26.880 two vote will be particularly bad uh for the economy uh nodule you were around when jason

00:04:33.860 Kenny bought a blue truck, put on some boots and a hat, and started riding around Alberta,

00:04:41.200 crusading to unite the right, to bring together the Wildrose and the progressive conservatives.

00:04:49.720 And he is saying very explicitly here, he's calling for the total destruction of his legacy.

00:04:56.500 That's probably not how he would frame it.

00:04:58.300 He'd say, well, I found it a Federalist party, not a party with a bunch of separatists who were wrecking it.

00:05:03.880 But those people were there for the most part.

00:05:07.280 He's right that some people joined during the COVID crusade against him.

00:05:10.820 It's just him, I think, being a bit butthurt about that and that movement and the people who came from it.

00:05:15.780 By and large, though, these are people who were, most of the leaders were still active in the Wild Rose,

00:05:22.040 some of them in the PC party at that time.

00:05:24.140 He is calling very clearly for the complete destruction of a united right in Alberta because, Corey's right, among UCP voters, most polls have independent support somewhere between 55% and 65% among UCP voters.

00:05:41.340 Among members, it's a lot higher than that.

00:05:44.720 It would be the complete ejection of probably three-quarters of its active membership, the grass tops of the party.

00:05:52.680 People actually sit on constituency associations, that kind of thing.

00:05:55.820 He's calling for the complete demolition of the party that he was the largest player in creating.

00:06:03.100 Well, that certainly is how he's playing it.

00:06:05.760 And whether there's bitterness, I mean, remember the things that he said about the people in the party. 0.96

00:06:12.780 The lunatics running the asylum. 0.91

00:06:14.480 Absolutely. Racists. 1.00

00:06:16.660 Always, you know, it's like Dr. Frankenstein looking at the monster he has created

00:06:21.780 and running in the opposite direction.

00:06:24.280 So that's probably how he does see things.

00:06:28.260 It would also position him well if he has further federal ambitions,

00:06:33.120 and maybe he does.

00:06:34.920 You just don't know.

00:06:38.340 I think we don't know.

00:06:40.040 All right. You want to say it?

00:06:41.880 I don't think it's particularly difficult to read that.

00:06:47.940 Thing is, if it is a sin to be a separatist and hold a UCP membership card,

00:06:58.660 then you have to look back on recent electoral history and see how much difference is that really going to make.

00:07:05.360 When we, of all the constituencies in Alberta that could have elected a radical, separatist member of the legislature,

00:07:18.880 Olds Disbrey was probably that constituency, and I think they turned in 17%.

00:07:27.980 I don't even think they hit that.

00:07:29.920 Well, it was 17.

00:07:31.560 Was it 17?

00:07:32.080 Okay, okay.

00:07:32.760 But Smith's case has been that the independent supporters should be within the UCP, not purged, as Kenny's talking about.

00:07:41.300 So 17% were people who, at least in that particular constituency and that particular by-election, said, no, we're good within the UCP.

00:07:49.800 The UCP is willing to let us have a referendum.

00:07:52.020 We're not going to risk electing the NDP to do that.

00:07:55.880 The 17% said, we're going to take the gamble and do it.

00:07:59.220 But I would say it's fair to say within that constituents, the majority of people supporting independents did not vote for the Republican Party.

00:08:06.480 I think it's only ever contested one seat in one election.

00:08:09.580 And that was that violation.

00:08:11.400 But her case, Smith's case, is that, no, these people are a part of the tribe.

00:08:15.500 I don't agree with them, but they're a part of the tribe.

00:08:18.040 They get to be a part of the party.

00:08:19.400 I don't want them calling the shots, but they're going to have some influence.

00:08:22.300 Kenny is saying, we don't want them.

00:08:24.180 We don't need them.

00:08:25.500 So he's making a different argument.

00:08:28.340 Well, he is.

00:08:28.820 And it's not as if the NDP doesn't have its own internal divisions.

00:08:34.300 There should be room within a political party to have differences of opinion,

00:08:39.620 even significant differences of opinion,

00:08:41.520 if you ever want to form a government or keep a government,

00:08:46.580 how big is the tent that you need to be?

00:08:49.120 These people are genuine conservatives, even if they're separatists.

00:08:52.780 There's no good argument to expel them from the party.

00:08:55.780 So Mr. Kenney's reasons for saying that are not necessarily clear, but I don't trust them.

00:09:04.560 Dave, normally when a purge happens, it is a majority group within an organization or party kicking out an unpleasant or troublesome minority.

00:09:15.260 This would be a case of the minority kicking out the majority.

00:09:18.900 If Smith were to do as Jason Kenney says she must, this would be her expelling a majority of the members of the party and a majority of its actual voters to begin with.

00:09:34.220 Now, I suppose, to be fair to Kenney, I think he put it more or less as it needs to be an ultimatum to them.

00:09:38.980 Like, OK, you're going to drop this. We're never talking about this again. It's done.

00:09:42.860 And if you don't drop it, then you're kicked out.

00:09:45.380 So maybe a few people would toe the line, but this is a weird case.

00:09:51.040 Normally it would be a majority kicking out a minority.

00:09:52.980 This would be the minority kicking out the majority if she does, as Kenny says.

00:09:57.660 Oh, yes, but let's not forget Jason Kenny is yesterday's man.

00:10:02.460 He's had his time.

00:10:03.360 He was a failed premier through a disaster through COVID.

00:10:07.200 He may or may not have aspirations for the federal party.

00:10:10.300 He says he hasn't.

00:10:11.640 But, you know, if Daniel Smith's not going to kick out the separatist part, where are they going to go anyways?

00:10:21.220 Right. I mean, I think even with the most rabid, rabid separatist would say, OK, the best if we all leave the UCP, we don't have another party to go to.

00:10:30.000 And if we split the vote, that means Premier Nehemiah. And they're smart enough to realize, no, we don't want that.

00:10:37.440 Actually, a lot of them aren't smart enough to realize that that's the other end of the coin, or some are trying to turn it into an expressly separate party, which would be a different disaster.

00:10:45.140 Of course, but it's, again, it's the same people that are talking about this that have sort of been the problem within the independence movement, the Jeff Ross of the world, you know, beacon off without thinking, right?

00:11:00.260 I think it was probably the same thing with Jason Kenney.

00:11:04.100 Daniel Smith is not going to expel these people.

00:11:07.040 She may say, okay, you've had your vote,

00:11:09.040 and now it goes on at the back burner,

00:11:11.000 and we concentrate on working on the province

00:11:13.760 and getting a better deal out of Ottawa.

00:11:15.960 I would think, Dave, that if there's anybody within Cabinet

00:11:18.840 who isn't explicitly on side,

00:11:22.920 they may find themselves eased to the one side,

00:11:25.420 but a general membership purge, unlikely.

00:11:27.400 Yeah. So Kenny has gone back to saying, wow, you know, these people are against the founding principles of the UCP. Corey, you know, you were involved in that. I was deeply involved in it.

00:11:44.840 I won't speak out of turn because these were conversations held in confidence.

00:11:50.660 But during that time, I was a Wildrose MLA.

00:11:53.440 Kenny was the leader of the PCs before he had a seat, but he was the leader of the PCs.

00:11:58.180 We would have several one-on-one conversations, some of which dealt with this directly.

00:12:03.640 That section he's talking about.

00:12:05.780 So I won't speak out of turn.

00:12:07.020 Those were conversations held in confidence at that time.

00:12:09.080 But that was the merger negotiation.

00:12:14.840 But that merger negotiation, you know, where it said, like, you know, UCP would be committed to a strong Alberta within United Canada, something like that.

00:12:23.900 But the agreement said also the founding principles will be determined officially at the founding convention of the UCP, at its first convention.

00:12:34.500 And the party had that founding convention.

00:12:36.720 And the membership explicitly and repeatedly rejected that.

00:12:42.020 And the independence movement was not mainstream at that time, but it was in the back of enough people's minds.

00:12:48.060 There was a Prime Minister Trudeau still in Ottawa, kind of an almost peak Trudeau.

00:12:53.460 I think he was black at that time. 1.00

00:12:55.740 And enough of the members said, we don't want to close the door to that forever. 1.00

00:13:02.200 It was a back pocket thing.

00:13:03.580 It was not something people were moving on, but they rejected that.

00:13:05.920 So the founding convention of the UCP rejected making the UCP an unconditionally and permanently federalist party.

00:13:12.940 That is not in its founding principles.

00:13:15.420 And if you put it to the members, I'm pretty sure if they gave them a binary option, I'm extremely confident they would vote to make it a Sovereignist party.

00:13:25.360 It's a fair question that's going to be asked of UCP members in November.

00:13:29.080 There's going to be an annual general meeting.

00:13:31.600 What's this party going to be?

00:13:32.620 Is it going to be kind of a broad brokerage center-right and right party with Federalists and Sovereignists where they can try to agree to disagree on it?

00:13:43.320 Because if the Federalists try to push one side, Corey, and say, no, we are making this an unconditionally Federalist party, that forces the hand of the other side.

00:13:51.920 And that, I think, would legitimate the Sovereignists in the party who do want to make the UCP an officially Sovereignist party.

00:13:59.340 If the other side tries to force the issue, I think it would kind of legitimate them forcing the issue in the other direction.

00:14:05.520 And as you've shown that history, Kenny is keenly aware of how delicate that balance is in this party and managing to hold it together, which makes me think he's purposely trying to crater the...

00:14:14.100 I do think it drives him nuts that Smith has largely succeeded where he's failed.

00:14:17.660 And he's mischaracterizing that whole thing anyways.

00:14:20.120 That was an agreement in principle between Brian Jean and him.

00:14:23.140 That's all it was.

00:14:23.900 That's like a napkin agreement before you get to the members and everything else.

00:14:26.960 That statement.

00:14:28.420 And as soon as the members had it, they crossed that party.

00:14:31.140 And Kenny said repeatedly that we ran on that principle in two elections.

00:14:34.200 Kenny, that's outright BS. You did not.

00:14:36.520 You merged your first meetings based with that in there,

00:14:39.720 but that was the only incarnation of that statement in the whole history of that party.

00:14:44.180 And again, I think it would be foolish to put something in that excludes a major element of your base of support,

00:14:50.360 just as I think it would be foolish to embrace a big, overtly secessionist approach to it.

00:14:54.800 It would tear the party in two.

00:14:56.220 And Kenny bloody well knows it, which again, Smith knows better than to listen to him, but I just got to wonder what his motivation is. It won't even help his federal aspirations that much. He's cloaked himself as Captain Canada. I understand that. That's fine. But where does throwing a hand grenade into a party that's a cobbled coalition of cranky conservatives, how does that serve Kenny in any sort of way?

00:15:17.900 Breaking the UCP and allowing the NDP to win probably actually helps serve his purposes for becoming the leader of the Federal Conservative Party because he could say, hey, look, these guys are no one can keep them together.

00:15:29.160 It wasn't just me. Smith couldn't do it. It's not just me. These are the crazies I was dealing with, and they're responsible for the NDP.

00:15:36.280 So I think one of the problems he's going to face when, you know, if Paglia falls and then he runs for Conservative Party federal leader, he's going to be facing questions, not just in Alberta, but around the country, like, how did you lose Alberta? No Conservatives ever lost Alberta. How? And then he can say, ah, no one can hold it. These guys are crazy and fractious.

00:15:56.920 So I think it is in his political interest to see Smith falter at this, in addition to probably a degree of hurt feelings and ego that the party that he helped birth ultimately left him.

00:16:12.320 Yeah, you make a case.

00:16:16.080 You know, one of the weird things about this, we've accommodated ourselves over the years

00:16:20.020 to having a separatist party in Quebec, being the legitimate government, but somehow staying

00:16:28.080 within confederation.

00:16:30.800 The idea that Alberta, should it ever develop into a separatist government, that's just

00:16:36.800 beyond the pale.

00:16:37.800 We couldn't possibly have that.

00:16:39.160 the weird double standard that we accept for ourselves.

00:16:42.340 I think the point the Federalists are making is that the PQ ran as a Sovereignist Party.

00:16:46.480 The UCP ran as a quasi-sovereignist party.

00:16:50.320 I mean, there was the Sovereignty Act, even though the version of the Sovereignty Act that was passed

00:16:54.260 was a significantly, significantly watered-down version of the one Smith campaigned on in the leadership race.

00:17:00.040 But still, it used language of sovereignty.

00:17:02.740 It would use words independence, just not total independence.

00:17:05.660 So it's fair to say I think the UCP ran in the last election.

00:17:09.160 as a quasi-sovereignist party.

00:17:11.040 Kenney was happy to tap into the language

00:17:12.760 when he was trying to win the leadership of the PC's

00:17:15.340 and then the UCP and then Alberta.

00:17:17.340 He would have this unilateral vote on equalization,

00:17:21.400 which I think all of us backed at the time.

00:17:23.440 I think we see how pointless it was now.

00:17:26.480 It should have at least been used symbolically to say,

00:17:28.520 see, you can't change anything in Canada.

00:17:31.980 The Constitution is set in stone.

00:17:34.400 It's just permanently there.

00:17:35.660 It should have at least been used symbolically.

00:17:37.260 It wasn't even used for that.

00:17:39.160 Um, but yeah, I, I, I, I think that's the way it would cut.

00:17:43.640 You know, I think we also have to accept the fact that the blue pickup truck wasn't the

00:17:46.820 real Jason Kenney.

00:17:48.140 That was, um, you know, I was talking to people at the time back in Eastern Canada and they

00:17:53.460 say, well, why don't you, like, why don't you guys, uh, just embrace this guy?

00:17:58.660 We think he's great.

00:17:59.720 Well, no, there's a few things we need to, we need to talk about before he becomes, you

00:18:05.120 know, um, so he, you know, he had the hat and he had the boot.

00:18:09.140 and he had the truck. And to give Mr. Kenny his due, he's extremely articulate, and he can go into

00:18:16.660 any little town in Alberta and he can talk the talk, and he did, and he brought it home. So

00:18:22.740 that was his accomplishment. But as for his creds on being an Alberta Sovereignist,

00:18:32.980 it didn't work out in practice. But he was happy to tap into it.

00:18:36.180 Absolutely. He helped make Frankenstein's monster. He's Dr. Frankenstein. He helped make the UCP and he tapped into that energy. He just didn't expect that energy would grow stronger and stronger and get to the point where it can at least force a referendum.

00:18:52.740 Should have read the book to the end, I guess. Yeah. Frankenstein.

00:18:56.860 Okay. Well, let's talk about the final week here. So there's a lot going on. Dave, I don't know, give us just the high-level overview. What are the big events of the final week here?

00:19:14.940 We've got tomorrow, we've got Prime Minister Mark Carney coming into Calgary,

00:19:19.120 doing a rally at the BMO at 5.30 with him and Thomas Lukasik.

00:19:25.400 And it's going to be co-hosted by our own beloved Mayor Jeremy Farkas.

00:19:30.040 So it is a big gathering of left-wing politicians to tell us why we should stay in Canada

00:19:36.640 and why we all love Canada.

00:19:38.420 And that roadshow goes up to Edmonton the following day on Friday.

00:19:41.840 and they're doing it all over again up there.

00:19:46.420 With the, I forget the Edmonton mayor's name.

00:19:48.960 Knack.

00:19:49.400 The creepy guy.

00:19:51.720 Yeah, Mayor Knack.

00:19:55.100 So, yeah, I expect there'll be big turnouts there.

00:19:58.160 And then there's a big independence rally on the 17th up at the legislature.

00:20:04.660 And they're sending in buses from all over the province,

00:20:08.560 probably 10, 15, 20,000 people there.

00:20:11.220 and a ww uh ufc champion uh uh whatever his name is who's touring alberta right now uh says he's

00:20:21.000 going to be there and uh he's putting his support uh behind alberta independence so it's it's the

00:20:27.000 final kick it's the final go and uh and uh the lineups have been big at advanced polling as

00:20:33.980 nigel mentioned earlier uh or maybe off camera there's half a million votes that are that are

00:20:39.180 already in and can't be changed.

00:20:42.100 Actually, Dave, to that point, so many people turned out so early that informally I had

00:20:48.700 feedback that people who had signed up to be scrutineers were asked to come in a day

00:20:52.620 early to get busy on the count.

00:20:54.380 They're expecting 80 to 85 percent turnout, which is unheard of.

00:20:59.320 Incredible.

00:21:01.160 And as Derek's mentioned, we're not going to get the results Monday or Tuesday, Monday

00:21:05.000 night.

00:21:05.840 It'll be early morning Tuesday.

00:21:08.280 So make sure you tune in.

00:21:09.840 But yeah, busy weekend ahead, and we'll have reporters everywhere and coverage live.

00:21:15.460 I'll plug into that, one of those events.

00:21:18.060 Maybe more modest, but there'll be a debate on the 5th, on the Friday, sorry, that's the 16th.

00:21:25.060 The Canada Strong and Free Network, which used to be the Manning Centre, putting on a debate here in Calgary.

00:21:31.340 The Western Standard is going to live stream it.

00:21:32.900 It's going to be on the, arguing on the pro-independent side, myself and Bruce Parity.

00:21:38.960 He is a professor from Queen's University.

00:21:43.280 And then on the Federalist side, Jason Kenney and Elaine Harper.

00:21:47.520 I think she's related to Stephen Harper by marriage or something.

00:21:50.740 I don't know her personally.

00:21:51.760 Elaine.

00:21:52.320 Elaine Harper, that's it.

00:21:54.040 So, yeah, we're going to have it out.

00:21:55.900 I don't know.

00:21:56.280 I think it's a bit of a short period of time for a four-way debate.

00:22:01.280 Especially when most of the people have already voted in the advanced polls.

00:22:04.680 Yeah, yeah.

00:22:05.880 But among those who haven't voted, I think it might be one of the few swayable rooms.

00:22:09.480 It's going to be a conservative room with a mixture of kind of right populists with more establishment, staffer class types mixing it up.

00:22:17.120 I do know a lot of people assure themselves, well, the conservative establishment are all the way for this.

00:22:22.060 Among the young staffers, actually, they're saying what they need to do publicly, but most of them are actually on site, I think.

00:22:29.760 So anyway, I think it'll be a swayable room and an interesting event.

00:22:33.680 What time is it?

00:22:34.760 John, what time is the debate?

00:22:37.880 We don't know?

00:22:39.260 I don't even know what time it is.

00:22:40.660 Anyway, it's on Friday the 16th coming up here.

00:22:43.720 We'll be live streaming.

00:22:44.240 And I should have mentioned also at that same conference,

00:22:47.220 Pierre Polyev speaking for Canada and a big speech by the Premier, Daniel Smith.

00:22:52.580 So all politicians all the time in Calgary on Thursday and Friday.

00:22:58.000 so cory we were talking off camera before i think everyone's just exhausted because i mean we've all

00:23:04.900 we've been you know you've covered and the three of us have covered and been involved in actual

00:23:10.900 campaigning during elections that are you know 40 day rip period or something and at the end you

00:23:15.640 just you fall down exhausted you're dead this has been going on for over a year you know we've had

00:23:22.500 the petition collection phase

00:23:24.640 and then the certification

00:23:26.040 and then the uncertainty with courts

00:23:28.480 and all that coming through until it finally spits out

00:23:30.600 as this

00:23:31.100 Frankenstein, I guess we're overusing the Frankenstein

00:23:34.460 analogy today, but this

00:23:35.400 Frankenstein monster question

00:23:38.700 that we got coming in early July

00:23:40.980 I think also it's been going on

00:23:44.600 so long that the enthusiasm

00:23:46.320 now is like

00:23:47.400 people are hanging on, the people showing up at events

00:23:50.460 I think on both sides are just kind of

00:23:51.920 the core enthusiasts you know you got hardcore independence guys showing up to these events and 0.95

00:23:57.420 then you got a bunch of you know uh blue-haired boomers showing up uh sorry sorry boomers we have 0.81

00:24:03.520 a lot of boomers watching i gotta stop bashing boomers but you know but you know the types uh

00:24:07.900 the ones getting the forever canada petitions you know whatever they'll get a forever canada

00:24:13.320 petition one day and then we'll get an anti-coal mining petition the next you know but uh i think

00:24:17.780 both sides are just completely exhausted yeah i mean people are going to campaign right to the

00:24:21.760 end we're going to have our rallies or things i was at a an event last night and it was a good

00:24:25.880 room but what i felt was it was also just it was the loyal coming out again they'll come out to

00:24:30.740 every one of them and they're great people but we're just kind of trying to boy each other up

00:24:35.380 to keep some energy going until the end of this thing uh i think the term back in the 90s was

00:24:40.000 with the quebec one because it seemed to drag on forever too it was never random i think they

00:24:43.120 called it quite often what they did everybody had had enough of it by the end i think people

00:24:47.040 want resolution. I mean, it's part of a lot of discussion too, though, and it's infuriating

00:24:50.900 some federalists. This won't end even if the option one side wins. They'd better understand

00:24:58.900 that. It doesn't mean- Well, they've already cheated by not having Forever Canada have to

00:25:02.200 register. They've already cheated. We already know they've cheated. And I mean, I wouldn't go as long

00:25:05.900 as it would have been rigged and so on. But the bottom line is there is an established movement

00:25:09.380 that's come together in this long 10 months of petitioning and groups forming and dissolving

00:25:15.760 and moving ahead uh something whatever comes out of this though is going to have to change

00:25:22.160 if people really don't want to see another referendum something has to change so that is

00:25:26.960 an excellent segue i i want to come to what comes after the referendum but to get to there i want to

00:25:33.120 talk uh nigel about the other nine questions which uh no one is really talking about but you know we

00:25:42.640 We know I think four or five of them are constitutional questions.

00:25:47.340 Four or five of them are immigration.

00:25:48.580 I know one of them is immigration and constitutional, 0.65

00:25:50.460 so you can actually count it in either.

00:25:51.680 That's where that confusion is from.

00:25:53.920 But, you know, we've got these other questions coming here,

00:25:56.460 most about constitutional reform that I don't think anybody believes Ottawa

00:26:02.200 and the other provinces will ever act upon.

00:26:04.280 There's a virtually 0% chance of it, and I wish I was wrong about that.

00:26:07.540 And then the other ones are immigration policy related. 0.64

00:26:12.660 The government should just do anyway.

00:26:14.840 I don't even know why they're pulling us on it.

00:26:16.260 Just do it.

00:26:19.320 How do you think those, you know, if we could put them into two broad buckets, you know, there's three buckets.

00:26:23.760 There's independence, there's constitutional, and then there's immigration.

00:26:27.600 How do you think those buckets are going to come through on referendum day?

00:26:31.680 Everybody talks about the questions.

00:26:34.120 I would challenge you to stop the first 10 people.

00:26:37.180 you meet on the street and say name two you know so they're not read through them i see them on

00:26:43.180 your screen do not read them they're going to put us all to sleep you want people to

00:26:46.780 leave a prayer for these sessions or just sort of shoot off well we can't go through

00:26:50.940 we're going to spend the rest of the show so we read them two broad buckets yeah okay and you

00:26:54.780 actually identify the first one is the the non-constitutional well they're constitutional

00:26:59.820 issues. Things like immigration. Should we expect people who've come in from

00:27:06.300 outside, they're temporary workers, why are they here? Should they pay their own 1.00

00:27:11.460 health care fees at least? That would be one. Should we, in fact, as a province,

00:27:16.620 have control over immigration? And I'm not going to read them all, but these are 0.54

00:27:20.640 the things that they are talking about. We have enough trouble handling the

00:27:26.940 legitimate health care and education needs of people coming in from Ontario, 1.00

00:27:31.820 Quebec, without the ones that are coming from other countries. So, to me, it seems common sense, 0.99

00:27:40.220 these things. I don't know why we have to ask the question, but I guess the sensitivities these days

00:27:46.300 among the woke and the DEI crowd are that, well, if you're going to address these issues,

00:27:51.180 you want to make sure that you have... I think it was the camouflage of the

00:27:53.740 independence question. Smith was taking a lot of heat for having it, so she puts

00:27:56.700 all these on so it's a bonanza but okay so there's the two buckets there's immigration ones and then

00:28:02.460 there's yeah the constitutional ones but i don't i don't want to go through every single question

00:28:06.460 because we will lose the show but uh overall so what's your take of me my question to you was uh

00:28:14.060 are they likely to pass i would say so yeah i mean some of them are kind of self so self-evidently

00:28:20.540 obvious that what the answer should be that as you just said i don't know why we're even asking them

00:28:25.660 Should provinces select judges for, you know, King's Court and the Court of Appeals?

00:28:31.900 Well, yeah, of course they should.

00:28:33.200 They're provincial courts with federal appointees.

00:28:35.240 Exactly.

00:28:36.100 So let's change that.

00:28:37.500 Now, the point about these other questions is that there are other provinces that also

00:28:43.260 want the same thing.

00:28:44.280 Now, whether they have the intestinal fortitude to go through with it, or if the idea comes

00:28:49.880 from Alberta right after a separation vote, whether they would want to be associated,

00:28:55.220 that's a different question. But all those kinds of constitutional questions, like the, you know,

00:29:03.380 forcing the federal government out of areas which are essentially provincial jurisdiction,

00:29:10.500 takes you back to where the Premier started three years ago, saying we want a strong Alberta,

00:29:17.620 but within a united Canada. So therefore we have, even if it's watered down, we have an act to say

00:29:24.420 say, Ottawa, keep out of it.

00:29:26.560 So I think that's probably where this is all going to go,

00:29:29.560 making the bold prediction that the separation referendum will fail,

00:29:36.500 that over all these other questions that they put out there

00:29:39.460 will be taken as an endorsement of defending Alberta's provincial authority,

00:29:46.340 and we'll be back to where we were in 2025,

00:29:50.180 and that's actually not such a bad place to be.

00:29:51.640 but dave i i think it was as i said i i think the premier premier smith put all of these questions

00:29:59.660 on the ballot kind of to camouflage the political heat she was getting for allowing the the

00:30:05.980 independence question to be on their period even though it came effectively from citizens initiative 0.92

00:30:10.260 the courts being jerks about it and she put it on so she was taking a lot of heat for it i think 1.00

00:30:15.560 she's trying to camouflage it. But I think she runs the serious risk of getting a much 0.98

00:30:24.400 lower margin of victory on those other nine questions, or potentially even losing some

00:30:29.600 of them by attaching it. Because you've got, you know, left-wing groups who are, their

00:30:33.860 slogan is no to the nine, which is really a shitty slogan. No one knows what the nine 0.61

00:30:38.900 is. You know, they say, stay in Canada, vote no to the nine.

00:30:41.240 Like I said, that's the first ten people you meet.

00:30:42.860 Yeah, well, what nine are you talking about? But, you know, you had former Premiers Notley, Redford and Stelmac come out saying, telling everyone just today, vote against all these immigration questions if you believe that temporary foreign workers from BooBooStan should pay for their own health care. You're a racist. You know, that's what our ancestors fought on D-Day for. So you have to pay for the welfare of someone from BooBooStan. 0.97

00:31:07.700 um so but you're gonna the the left-wing federalists who come out i think there's going

00:31:16.360 to be a sense among them to vote what they will perceive as the straight ticket so voting no to

00:31:21.820 independence you know that's the pro-canada as they would see it i would see it pro-otttawa

00:31:26.360 they would vote as they see it pro-canada all the way down the ballot that means no to the

00:31:31.420 immigration questions and no to the constitutional reform questions and no to daniel smith they would

00:31:37.400 And no to Danielle Smith.

00:31:40.360 And, in fact, because independence on the question at the same time, some hardcore independent supporters might even vote against the constitutional.

00:31:47.340 And they're on the right.

00:31:48.600 They might even vote against some of the constitutional reform ballot measures because they see it as a waste of time, which it is, because the Constitution is not getting reformed no matter what you do.

00:31:57.180 so I don't know do you think by having this smorgasbord of issues on about all at the same

00:32:03.740 time she risks getting a lower margin of victory on the immigration to constitutional amendment

00:32:08.560 questions than she would otherwise get or potentially even risk losing some as a result

00:32:12.620 yeah I don't know about losing but certainly not as high as she would like I would think she would

00:32:17.140 probably she was hoping for 80 percent on the immigration question which is as Nigel says is

00:32:22.900 just common sense of course alberta just wants the same thing that quebec has we want to be

00:32:27.660 voted on by itself you might get 80 yeah uh we you know we want to select our immigrants and

00:32:32.720 we want only the people that that are working and can can pay their fair share to to come here so 0.99

00:32:38.600 yeah you're right that's just a common sense question should automatically be ticked off

00:32:42.740 uh yes but uh you know as you've explained eric that it could back it could backfire for her with

00:32:49.880 lower a lower pass because there's a lot of leftists who even though they would agree privately yeah

00:32:55.480 we do need to get more control they're not going to give her the benefit of the doubt or the

00:32:59.320 satisfaction and they'll vote against it well being such large wordy questions they force the

00:33:07.000 campaigning to kind of be a no to the nine yes to the nine you can't parse through all ten of these

00:33:12.040 i think question three is 53 words this is what question it's like one of your preambles

00:33:16.520 it it just goes and even john's laughing that one you can't expect voters though to you know

00:33:25.400 most of them aren't going to sit there and cherry pick they're going to do either all the way down

00:33:29.160 one side or all the way down the other and uh that's a trap i think that unfortunately yeah 0.85

00:33:33.480 maybe smith might have sprung on herself because if they'd have been separated out and a little 0.54

00:33:37.720 more clean in a separate referendum then these would have been maybe a 80 20 sort of issue but

00:33:42.520 But now it's really ended up getting baked in with a lot of other motivations, whether it's just to send the middle finger to Premier Smith or whether it's concerns about the independence question.

00:33:52.540 And she might not get the mad at she hopes.

00:33:55.460 So I had a conversation today, I won't say with who, but I was thought we were talking about the referendum and what comes after in particular for Danielle Smith. 0.95

00:34:05.280 What does she have to do? You know, because you've got some of the more, let's call them, rowdy members on the independent side who are already calling for her head. 0.99

00:34:16.340 They want her gone. But, you know, she had a thumping endorsement at the last ESP convention, 90 percent plus.

00:34:23.960 So she was extremely strong man, but she was seen as more ambiguous on the question at the time.

00:34:28.260 She's going to allow the question to go forward, but she's just kind of staying out of it.

00:34:31.580 Now she's seen as a partisan on the Federalist side, even if most of the Federalists see her as on the Independent side.

00:34:37.800 So what is she going to do?

00:34:41.360 And I think a big part of that, you know, polls are showing Independence is not going to win.

00:34:50.020 I guess we call it Tuesday morning when we get the results.

00:34:52.820 So let's just say if the polls are correct, you know, it gets roughly one third support.

00:34:58.000 You know, it's on the map, but it doesn't win.

00:35:03.200 But let's say the other nine do succeed.

00:35:07.180 What does she do then?

00:35:08.560 Does she say, okay, well, I'm going to do some crackdown on immigration. 1.00

00:35:12.240 That'll be popular and obviously necessary. 0.93

00:35:14.680 But now we have a mandate for constitutional reform.

00:35:18.380 I mean, if there was any prospect for succeeding in that, you know, 0.56

00:35:23.140 that might actually be a good way for her to channel that anger that is fueling the independence 0.98

00:35:29.280 movement. People are angry at the state of Canada and people who might be upset that she wasn't with

00:35:33.640 them if she could say, well, but the people of Alberta did endorse this. I know you didn't get

00:35:38.940 what you want. I know you're disappointed, but hey, we got a mandate for this. Nigel, but the

00:35:45.080 risk to that is that you can't deliver it because I don't think anyone can deliver constitutional

00:35:50.800 perform in Canada. It's considered all but impossible. So we've got an election next year

00:35:55.280 in October 27, is it? I think so. Yeah. So I think you can just keep this thing above the stall for

00:36:02.120 12 months to... She will... If she campaigns on the nine, if she is strong on that, if she says

00:36:12.120 we want to, you know, Alberta within Canada, but it's not the Alberta, you know, it's not your dad's

00:36:19.300 Alberta, where we just took what was given to us. We may or may not get everything that the Nine

00:36:26.320 calls for, but it's setting the tone, displaying the attitude, and she can be very, she can say,

00:36:35.740 I've been a Federalist, but I am above all, I'm an Alberta, an Alberta girl, and we're going to go

00:36:43.040 and defend Alberta's rights as they exist under the Constitution.

00:36:49.240 Thank you for your glowing endorsement.

00:36:51.580 Here we go.

00:36:52.440 There will be legislation and the romance with Mr. Carney

00:36:56.680 will be very strained, let's put it that way.

00:37:00.960 I agree, and I think the other thing that will happen 0.97

00:37:02.860 is she will quickly move into campaign mode

00:37:05.660 towards the end of the winter,

00:37:07.680 and she is going to have so much money to spend,

00:37:10.660 so much money to blow around with the huge oil prices, 1.00

00:37:14.960 we're going to be raking in billions and billions and billions of dollars every month.

00:37:19.080 And all that's going to be promised to schools and housing and health. 1.00

00:37:23.920 And, you know, she'll be throwing money at everything and, you know, glide to victory. 1.00

00:37:29.260 She's a long way from being a spent force. 1.00

00:37:31.060 Absolutely.

00:37:31.420 Well, I want to put it to you, Corey.

00:37:33.180 So, you know, the immigration stuff, other than provincial control over it,

00:37:37.580 she can do without anything from Ottawa.

00:37:38.860 She could do a lot, four of the five immigration ones, she could just do on her own. 0.90

00:37:42.900 But the constitutional amendment questions, it would at least, I think, would provide her with a temporary off-ramp to at least most and reasonable independent supporters to say,

00:37:54.640 okay, you didn't get what you want, but we've got a mandate to change the constitution to make this country more fair and equitable for Alberta and for everyone.

00:38:02.280 I think that would get her some runway, but, like, that is a wild gamble because the chances of her actually delivering actual constitutional reform are vanishingly small.

00:38:18.620 It would seem to me that's an extreme, might be a short-term advantage to her, but unless she actually, maybe she knows something I don't, and she's actually good buddies with PSPP, the new premier of Quebec, and who knows?

00:38:32.280 But, I don't know, that seems like an option for her, but if she can't deliver on it, which seems highly unlikely that she can deliver on it, it leads her to a dead end that would end for premiership eventually.

00:38:42.860 Well, yeah, the factional juggling, I mean, she's going to have to move fast, though, because now we're going to have a group within the party that hasn't gotten where they wanted to go.

00:38:51.700 They're frustrated, but they have seen, I think, in a public vote that we're going into that presumption that it was, you know, a third, as we're talking about.

00:38:59.740 She has to, as I said, channel that energy, keep them on something.

00:39:03.140 If you leave them unfocused, they will turn towards her because there is a group within the independence movement that, I mean, let's face it, they viscerally hate her.

00:39:11.220 And they want to rip her out at all costs.

00:39:14.140 And they are going to try and direct that portion of the party to do that. 0.98

00:39:18.740 She's going to have that battle right away.

00:39:21.100 And if she can communicate, channel that towards something, some victories they can have,

00:39:27.200 the constitutional ones we do know are impossible.

00:39:30.380 But if she can rag the puck long enough to get into the next election, that buys her time.

00:39:35.000 She is of the opinion that she's got support in other provinces among the leaders. 0.86

00:39:39.200 To abolish the Senate?

00:39:40.700 Well, there's a lock in the Atlantic.

00:39:43.380 Like electing judges, though, you've got Scott Moe.

00:39:45.620 Not electing.

00:39:46.080 Not electing.

00:39:47.080 Appointing federal judges.

00:39:48.860 Got Scott Moe on side already.

00:39:50.380 Got Doug Ford on side already.

00:39:52.140 So there is potential there.

00:39:54.540 And Quebec might potentially go that way, too.

00:39:56.960 Equalization, no. 0.82

00:39:59.000 But the small things like that, she's got a decent chance, I think.

00:40:02.620 I don't know.

00:40:03.280 Good direction.

00:40:05.040 So that's my question to you.

00:40:06.340 I think my last question to you.

00:40:07.640 is constitutional reform effectively impossible or you know are we in a weird constellation right

00:40:18.180 now where we've got kind of a make-a-deal prime minister who seems to be able to work with the

00:40:22.820 left and the right at the same time he's popular in Quebec and parts of Alberta at the same time

00:40:28.520 which is very rare you've got a sovereigntist but not full separatist or nationalist premier

00:40:35.780 in Alberta and you've got a a sovereignist separatist in Quebec but who is also maybe

00:40:43.100 willing to make a deal I don't know are we in a unique window where we can revisit Charlottetown

00:40:47.280 well it's interesting you should reference Charlottetown because when you look at what

00:40:52.300 the Charlottetown Accord actually consisted of there are echoes of that from 40 years ago

00:40:59.120 in what we're asking people

00:41:01.260 to pay heed to now.

00:41:04.520 Constitutional

00:41:05.280 reform about provincial powers

00:41:07.120 versus Ottawa.

00:41:09.840 And you know, it's just

00:41:11.120 like

00:41:12.820 Ted Morton

00:41:15.380 was talking

00:41:17.160 about this just last week

00:41:19.060 and he was saying that the

00:41:21.180 independence option, let's say it

00:41:25.060 passed, well, let's say that we

00:41:27.120 went through the whole process

00:41:28.340 the rewards of that are uncertain the costs are very certain there's no

00:41:34.580 guarantee that in the end sorry Cory there's no guarantee that in the end we

00:41:39.780 would be better off on the other hand we know for a fact that if we don't vote

00:41:46.100 for separation we are going to be in just the same place that we've been for

00:41:50.780 50 years so what he is calling for and I think he's right is that we plan to go

00:41:58.880 ahead and I think this is probably what what the Premier has in mind go ahead

00:42:05.480 with constitutional change do what you can but above all it's a good sound

00:42:10.400 position for her to occupy for the next 12 months before the before the election

00:42:17.180 And who knows, you might even work if you get Doug Ford and Quebec on the two biggest provinces. 0.97

00:42:22.680 She can deliver. It's a huge risk.

00:42:26.260 Okay, at least she'd be trying.

00:42:28.240 All right, well, for parting shots today, we're all going to do the same thing.

00:42:33.140 We're going to make our bets on what vote percentage independence versus the Federalist is going to get on the big question 10.

00:42:44.680 and you can make predictions on the other nine questions as well.

00:42:50.100 Start with, you spend more time than anyone thinking about it.

00:42:53.240 You're a first.

00:42:53.760 You're putting me in a terrible spot

00:42:55.060 because I got to speak to that rally in Edmonton on Saturday

00:42:57.580 and I am pushing for a most enthusiastic push for a win on this.

00:43:02.540 What I'll say then is it'll couple it with it.

00:43:04.660 My gut is telling me right now that we weren't quite ready

00:43:08.800 and it might be 31%,

00:43:10.000 which I still think is very strong and significant on option two,

00:43:13.300 though i'm happy to be proven wrong and as i will state at the rally push get people out to vote

00:43:20.200 keep talking keep working and we'll see things happen momentum moves and it can get over 50

00:43:26.200 but as i feel right now i feel 31 and the other nine the other nine i'm thinking i mean most of

00:43:33.200 it again because people are going to block vote along them but i think i i think premier smith's

00:43:36.580 going to do okay and get perhaps 62, 63% along on that front. Nigel. 22%? Sorry. But that's pretty

00:43:46.740 respectable. If you get one person in five saying it's time to be out of here, that shouldn't, that

00:43:52.320 will be taken in eastern Canada as, well, we've got nothing to worry about, but it shouldn't be

00:43:56.420 taken for that. If you, I say that 22% will, as for the nine, I actually feel this, maybe I'm just

00:44:03.580 too trusting, but I think that these things

00:44:05.440 are so self-evidently inviting

00:44:07.420 a yes that

00:44:08.600 that'll be a pretty high. Some would say the same

00:44:11.400 though on the independence question. It's so 0.97

00:44:13.320 self-elemented on either side.

00:44:15.960 Well, I say

00:44:17.400 that you'll get a strong

00:44:18.520 response. 50s, 60s?

00:44:21.540 Oh, more than that. 70s, 80s?

00:44:23.800 On the 9? 80%.

00:44:26.060 Wow. Okay.

00:44:29.300 19%?

00:44:31.280 I'm going low.

00:44:32.760 Sorry, Corey.

00:44:33.580 in the mid-60s on the other night.

00:44:37.360 Oh, you're so optimistic, eh?

00:44:38.760 Okay.

00:44:39.540 Well, just because of the slate voting,

00:44:41.480 anti-Smith voting.

00:44:42.200 Yeah, well, if it is,

00:44:44.080 it'll be an anti-Smith vote,

00:44:45.200 not because they don't agree with those things.

00:44:49.300 I'm going to say,

00:44:50.680 he's at 31, yeah.

00:44:53.800 I'm going to go to the high end

00:44:54.840 and say 33, one third.

00:44:56.100 But I think that is probably around the ceiling

00:44:58.820 of where it could end up.

00:45:00.880 I will say I wish it were more.

00:45:02.500 Yeah.

00:45:02.720 Oh, yeah. That's clear with, too. These are not what we want the results to be. This is just what we think. And frankly, I'm basing it on kind of an aggregate of polls in my head. So I have it's no special knowledge. The other one, the nine, I think are a lot harder to predict. Well, first, because there's nine and then there's kind of two grab bags of them. I don't even like one of the constitutional amendment ones. That's abolished the Senate. I think we need a reformed Senate, not an abolished Senate.

00:45:27.340 But every democratic federation in the world has got some form of democratic upper house of some kind.

00:45:33.700 There's different models for it.

00:45:35.200 Alberta, Canada is the only one that does not have one and would still not have one if we got rid of it.

00:45:40.320 But I'll still vote to abolish it because it's moving the conversation forward.

00:45:45.220 It's at least it's an FU to send.

00:45:46.880 And I'm sending an FU.

00:45:47.660 Nothing's going to happen with it anyway.

00:45:49.680 So but I on the nine, I'm a bit more pessimistic than I think any of you.

00:45:54.700 I think, block voting on the left, mostly, and to a significantly smaller, but still significant

00:46:03.300 proportion, some hardcore independents people might vote against some of the constitutional 0.99

00:46:07.440 amendment ones saying, we're not wasting our time with that crap. I think that'll be 0.98

00:46:11.580 not a huge group, but could be significant. I think the nine are going to range from mid-50s

00:46:18.620 to mid-60s.

00:46:22.040 They're not

00:46:22.640 going to all get the same. Mid-50s and mid-60s.

00:46:25.820 So.

00:46:26.980 All right.

00:46:28.600 That's it. Corey, Nigel, Dave

00:46:30.640 and John, thank you for running

00:46:32.540 the studio. And all of you

00:46:34.200 for joining us today

00:46:36.160 on the pipeline.

00:46:38.880 If you're in Alberta

00:46:40.040 and you're eligible to vote, you're an Albertan,

00:46:42.800 make sure you vote

00:46:44.280 however you're doing it. Definitely vote

00:46:46.200 like me. Actually, if you're not voting like me, don't

00:46:48.460 vote at all. You're actually making my vote more powerful. But yeah, no, get out there and vote.

00:46:53.160 Try to hit the advanced polls if you can. What day do advanced polls close? Do any of you know?

00:46:58.340 I think they go to Friday. Friday, I think, yeah. Friday? Okay. Try to get out and vote. The lineups

00:47:03.440 are going to be crazy. There's a lot of disorganization in Elections Canada right now

00:47:07.700 for a variety of reasons we'll get into. But also voter turnout is so much higher predicted here

00:47:13.680 than any election we've had in any of our lifetimes.

00:47:17.360 You know, 80 to 85 percent.

00:47:19.100 Who knows, maybe more Quebec, I think, in 95 or something.

00:47:22.220 93, I think.

00:47:23.140 It was in the 90s.

00:47:25.140 But that was a closer race, according to polls and whatnot.

00:47:28.300 So anyway, get out and vote.

00:47:29.920 Try to hit the advanced polls.

00:47:31.040 It'll be good for you.

00:47:33.220 The Western Standard is still free online until the 20th of October.

00:47:37.080 And then the paywall is back up.

00:47:38.640 But if you're not a subscriber, you should be.

00:47:41.280 Go to westernstandard.news.

00:47:42.520 Click on subscribe.

00:47:43.200 $10 a month or $100 a year. Thank you very much for joining us today, and God bless.

Western Standard - October 17, 2026

THE PIPELINE： Independence Week

Episode Stats

Transcript